Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s bounce back to 1.3425 resistance doesn’t reverse momentum up, but it does create room to absorb a retest of prior lows without extending the decline.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having fulfilled the long outstanding 1284.50 target, Friday’s rally stopped just short of recovering 1296.00 to signal a new rally underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday morning’s fresh low fulfilled the long outstanding 20.30 target. Back above 20.55 resistance would signal the drop’s momentum had ended. Closing above 20.75-20.85 would signal a new rally leg underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A knee-jerk reaction down on the Employment Situation report was reversed up to fresh highs above 137-21 to test the 138-11 level that had been the prior rally’s pullback limit. Its resistance pushed back to 138-00, whose recover would confirm a retest of the highs — at least to 139-06 — is underway.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Room for noise under the long outstanding 98.40 target was met and held at Friday’s ~97.10 low. Its bounce held 97.85 resistance, whose recovery would have started to signal the target had held. Not reacting up immediately now creates a higher bar — there is room simply to range back up to 99.15 without yet signaling the trend has reversed up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday to 3.78 was recovered to test 3.85 resistance, only to close back at 3.78. Back above 3.85-3.88 would still launch a new upleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday afternoon’s bounce had failed to reverse into positive territory, so its lows were retraced easily Thursday, but not extended as the balance of the session only ranged sideways.  The decline’s momentum has all but disappeared.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows touched the long outstanding 1284.50 target. Its reaction up was reversed to fresh lows attacking 1280.50. Back above 1287.50 would start to suggest another rally leg was underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding up relatively well recently at 20.75-20.85 resistance didn’t immunize the pattern from eventually retesting its low, which it Thursday, still having near-term potential to 20.30.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s deep, steep break under the 138-11 pullback limit to 137-14 was extended just as deeply and as steeply Thursday to 136-14. Closing positive would have prevented confirming Wednesday’s breakout, and a 1-point bounce probed it up to 137-21. But a reaction down to 137-04 was at best still testing unchanged, and not clearly recovering it. Friday’s Employment Situation report must trigger a reaction above 137-21 to avoid extending the decline as steeply and as deeply.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows Thursday filled the gap back to the low’s Island Reversal, and extended to fresh lows that tested the long standing 98.40 target. There is potential for fresh lows at 97.10 so long as bounces now hold 99.15.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The potential bottoming pattern initially reacted to Thursday’s EIA report with a surge to probe above 3.85 resistance, but a reaction down was still testing and overlapping it through the afternoon.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement certainly got a reaction. But the pre-open GDP had already shaken things up, and down.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s opening dip remained under pressure into the afternoon, when FOMC triggered firming that attacked Tuesday’s lows. There is no buy signal.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s bounce was retraced Wednesday morning to 1291.00, but recovered to hold 1296.00 support. The GDP and FOMC news kept the pressure on, but the close was still testing 1296.00, keeping alive the 1284.50 target.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 20.75-20.85 bounce limit that had been tested and retested Monday and Tuesday was still being tested Wednesday, along with 20.55 support whose break would target fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s opening dip filled the gap back down to Monday’s close, and despite Tuesday’s bounce having missed its 139-06 minimum objective by 3 ticks, already extended down to fresh lows at 137-10. Back above3 138-00 would target fresh highs of at least 139-06. It was attacked by the FOMC reaction, but not recovered.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” produced a gap up Thursday, which filled the gap back to Monday’s 101.55 close. But having held the 101.00 bounce limit on Tuesday, a reaction down probed fresh lows under 100.00, which was still being tested through the close.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip back down to 3.76 avoided an immediate recovery above 3.85, which would have allowed Wednesday’s sudden surge to gain traction and extend into a recovery. Much of the post-open dip was still recovered, keeping alive the bottoming potential, and a gap up to Tuesday’s slightly higher close — with EIA reporting on Thursday morning.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Resistance at 81.55 was attacked Tuesday, and exceeding it would next target 82.00-82.75.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s fresh lows tested nearby support at 1.3415, lowering the next major objective to 1.3320-1.3350 unless 1.3455 is recovered.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s pre-open test of 1309.50 resistance reversed back down under 1304.00 to signal the decline had resumed, targeting 1284.50. Its bounce off of 1296.00 now requires 1304.00 to hold as resistance.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s reaction down from the lower-end of 20.75-20.85 resistance was initially retraced to its upper-end before Tuesday’s open. That was rejected by a move back down to 20.55 support, whose break would confirm the decline has resumed.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Like the two recent gaps down from attacking 138-28 weren’t credible for extending down, neither was Tuesday’s gap up credible for extending higher. It stopped short of the minimum 139-06 resistance before reversing back under prior highs. And the dip stopped short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close. That optimism keeps alive the breakout’s momentum for Wednesday to extend the rally.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s bounce had stopped short of turning positive, maintaining the decline’s momentum, which Tuesday’s open rewarded by gapping down to fresh lows. That didn’t extend down, but the balance of the session ranged sideways exclusively in negative territory, forming “ineffectual pessimism.” The Island Reversal’s retest targeting 98.40 remains in-play so long as 101.00 holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The ongoing decline’s shallow pace didn’t prevent the low’s retest Tuesday. But a reaction up did attack the 3.85 buy signal. Its recovery Wednesday would trigger at least a corrective bounce underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging narrowly Monday within Friday’s range didn’t change the pattern, except to confirm that at least an immediate reversal attempt would be likely to recover enough for a retest of Fri-Mon’s highs before being able to reverse down durably.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s open didn’t gap down, but Friday’s narrow ranging was duplicated as the decline avoided extending, making an immediate recovery attempt unlikely to succeed.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still ranging around 1304.00 Monday probably won’t delay either extending up through 1313.00 for a substantial rally, or else the more likely retest of last week’s lows down to 1384.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
I adjusted the corrective bounce’s target down to 20.75, which held Monday morning to make the retest of last week’s lows likely to begin without further delay.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down wasn’t any more appropriate for launching a downleg than was a similar attempt from the same area last week. At least an intraday probe of fresh highs above 138-28 remains likely.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows Monday down to 100.90 fulfilled Friday afternoon’s pattern, but the drop didn’t extend. A bounce attacked Friday’s ~102.10 close and threatened to turn positive. The retest of the low’s Island Reversal should resume without further delay Tuesday to avoid a much bigger bounce first.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping to test 3.85 resistance didn’t prevent an intraday dip to fresh lows testing 3.74 support. Any upside potential begins by recovering 3.80 on a closing basis, or else the trend remains down.

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