Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight edit

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s fresh high at 81.20 now leave room for dipping back down to 80.95 without yet signaling the rally may be ending.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s narrow consolidation resolved down sharply by gapping open Friday to fresh lows. Trending into the weekend is often either duplicated the following morning, or reversed entirely. So, not extending down Monday could mark the beginning of a bottoming pattern. A bounce has room up to 1.3455 before suggesting momentum may be reversing up.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1296.00 bounce limit initially held Friday morning’s bounce, but it was eventually probed up to 1304.00. That had been support whose repeated testing forecast the sharp break lower. Having retested it, back under 1296.00 would now signal the decline extending. There is otherwise room up to 1313.00 before signaling a new upleg underway — which now would be viable since producing the outstanding lower close, regardless of not yet testing 1284.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s bounce tested the decline’s 20.55 limit, suggesting it will also test 21.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap down was inappropriate for reversing the trend down, which was confirmed by Friday’s bounce back to within ticks of the 103-28 highs. A fresh high would still be appropriate before a durable downleg could be triggered back under 138-10 and 137-28.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down from 103.35 had extended down overnight to 101.00, but a knee-jerk reaction to news triggered a spike up into positive territory. Settling back into negative territory undermined the recovery attempt, although earlier lows remained untouched — perhaps due to the weekend’s impending illiquidity. If the downward momentum remains intact, then the week’s open should compensate for the delay by resuming the decline immediately.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s pullback consolidated under its 3.80 limit, and optimistically just above Thursday’s 3.75 low. The setup doesn’t improve the potential for a bottom, so recovering from a new low and reversing back above 3.80 may be the only credible bottoming pattern to monitor.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming Thursday to fresh highs without any velocity is vulnerable to reversing down. It’s like waiting for another shoe to drop. And the longer that it doesn’t drop, the more vulnerable the pattern becomes to surging higher.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s gap up didn’t extend higher intraday and only ranged narrowly sideways, leaving no new pattern.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s retesting of 1304.00 had no bearish excuse to further delay its break and resuming the decline to 1284.50. It was attacked to within $3, by extending sharply lower Thursday after gapping down. Regardless of not yet having met 1284.50, Thursday’s fresh low close neutralizes the attraction below for at least one more fresh low close. Back above 1296.00 would suggest the objective was fulfilled.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s break lower extended down sharply through the 20.55 minimum target that was left outstanding by the interim bounce. Now it is essentially resistance, and its recovery would target a test of Wednesday’s 21.00 close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down is not the optimal way to end the recent rally that was recovered to touch its 138-27 prior high instead of its retest probing higher. So closing Thursday back under 137-28 down would still be vulnerable to being a false break that reverses back up to resume the rally.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The Island Reversal’s comparable target at 103.35 that held its test Wednesday was not improved Thursday. The attempt to reverse down immediately didn’t get far, but at least the level’s relevance is confirmed.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up ahead of the EIA report was rewarded by surging through the news to test the three-session old opening gap down to 3.85. The surge held up, so that pulbacks can still resume the rally if 3.80 were to hold as support.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging Wednesday doesn’t suggest the trend is yet ready to reverse down. But it also doesn’t form a solid base for extending the rally if attempted.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s drop wasn’t corrected Wednesday, nor did its trend continue, but the session was spent hovering at the lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t recover 1313.00. Testing of recent lows in the 1304.00 area didn’t extend down, but tested the area enough that its break shouldn’t be delayed much further. The delay in breaking lower otherwise keeps alive the vulnerability to breaking higher, despite the outstanding objective for fresh lows down to at least 1284.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
21.05 continued to resist any recovery attempt Wednesday, although the decline did not extend.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s firming back to the 138-27 high must be rejected forcefully for the retest to remain vulnerable to launching a new downleg. The potential for a new downleg is already suspect, and closing above 138-28 would signal the uptrend extending.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs Wednesday extended the Island Reversal’s rally to test 103.35 basis Sep. Swing measurements from around the Island project there, and to 104.05 basis Aug (which no longer trades), suggesting that the target has been tested and retested. Resuming the decline Thursday should be obvious almost immediately if it the bounce isn’t going to extend substantially.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday before dipping under Tuesday’s low was the first sign of any strength during the recent slide. Regardless, Thursday’s EIA report certainly isn’t being met by strength, so a positive knee-jerk reaction would likely be retraced — perhaps its retracement would hold and recover, but that would have to be assessed in real-time.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s surge tested and probed Friday’s high, which Monday’s reaction down left as likely. Now the question is whether one fresh high close will suffice. Closing back under 80.60 would signal the trend had reversed back down.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s narrow ranging confirmed that Friday’s bounce had not reversed the trend back up, and that Friday’s low would be retested. Tuesday’s gap down extended to fresh lows, which also fulfilled the outstanding objective for a new low close. The trend would be reversed up by closing above 1.3525.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was retraced in reaction to Tuesday morning’s CPI, but that failed to hold its recovery above 1313.00, keeping alive the potential for resuming the decline next targeting 1284.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce held a test of 21.05 resistance to keep alive the 20.55 target in-play below.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday wasn’t likely to be a durable rejection of 138-28 being attacked Monday. Testing 138-00 and closing back above 138-10 keeps alive the 138-28 high’s retest, whose recovery would make the rally likelier to extend instead of forming a top.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s test of the Island Reversal’s likely target was probed overnight basis Aug, while Sep remained stuck to the outstanding gap that had been filled already. Tuesday afternoon was spent testing “lower prior highs” as support, but not yet signaling that momentum had reversed down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows Tuesday further delayed forming a troughing pattern which is the next possible bottoming opportunity in this pattern

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Relatively narrow ranging Monday kept the door open to retracing Friday’s reversal before any meaningful reversal would be credible.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Narrow ranging Monday could trigger no signal, but not extending Friday’s bounce suggests that it was only temporary, and its low remains likely to be retested.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength opened Monday above 1313.00 resistance, which was being tested as support through the close to keep buyers from gaining traction. The gap back to Thursday’s close was filled, neutralizing an attraction above that allows fresh lows targeting 1284.50 to resume.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday failed to hold 91.05 as support, suggesting the bounce was corrective, and that a retest of last week’s lows would soon be obvious.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs Monday tested the 138-28 target to within 1 tick. Closing back under 138-10 would signal the rally had ended, and back under 137-28 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday night’s attack on the bounce’s 104.05 target was retested intraday Monday, with fresh highs up to 104.75. Closing back under 103.70 would signal a retest of the bottom’s Island Reversal was in-play, targeting 98.40.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down extended lower intraday. It was not “troughing,” (the opposite of “plateauing”), which last week’s break from a Falling Wedge all but requires before being able to reverse the trend back up.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…