Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday bounced before even touching Wednesday’s low, essentially forming an inside day. A fresh high would still contend with 1.1400 resistance, but retesting the 1.1245-1.1275 lows first could form a durable bottom.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s close was testing 1210.00 on its way up to 1217.00, which was retested overnight but not exceeded Thursday as price hovered just below it Resistance at 1219.00-1222.00 must hold to maintain this is only a temporary corrective bounce.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce extended overnight up to the 14.25 resistance of Friday’s gap down and previous “higher prior lows.” It was all retraced into the open, and then recovered intraday to probe another nickel higher. Resistance at 14.35 is likely to be tested, and likely to launch the next downleg if tested.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rising stocks didn’t need the destination of a flight-to-quality, so probing higher Thursday up to 139-14 was retraced into negative territory. The trend didn’t reverse down, but the opportunity to confirm Wednesday’s rally had failed.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s close didn’t maintain a shallow but favorable knee-jerk reaction to the one-day delayed EIA report, essentially ending the day at its 56.50 open and still being likely to probe under Monday’s 54.75-55.55 lows.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A probe above Wednesday’s 4.93 spike high was avoided before reversing down sharply to 3.93 Thursday. Which still confirms the exhaustive nature of the rally, but held above the 4.03 “lower prior high” to avoid reversing the trend down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up and probing higher Wednesday filled the gap back up to Friday’s 1.1365 close. Holding its resistance provides an opportunity for the pattern to react down fill the gap back to Monday’s 1.1275 close or to retest its 1.1245 overnight lows to form a more solid bottom.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows attacking 1198.00 overnight and intraday never maintained a break under 1201.50, which would have targeted lower lows, before recovering back up to 1210.00 intraday and then attacking 1217.00 post-close.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s slightly lower fresh lows attacking 13.85 recovered back into positive territory and above Tueday’s high for an outside day, threatening to reverse the trend up or at least to form a corrective bounce.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One more intraday dip to 138-04 the buy signal was soon retraced and reversed to sharply higher highs at 139-10 as stocks fell. A second consecutive higher close would confirm at least another higher close is required.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging up to 57.35 did not form a bottoming pattern and only held a test of the last relative high. A retest of Tuesday’s 54.75 low is likely.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Surging 86-cents / 20% overnight up to 4.96 was the largest one-day gains in 9 years. Its intaday reaction down to 4.36 retraced 61.8% of the distance back to “lower prior highs” before recovering almost all of the overnight highs. The behavior is exhaustive, and back under the 4.36 interim low would trigger a deeper correction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday had fulfilled the minimum objective of Thursday’s confirmed breakout, creating vulnerability to a bounce, which developed overnight but not until probing fresh lows at 1.1245. Gapping up within Monday’s range was reversed back into Monday’s range after temporarily probing above it, which doesn’t reverse the trend up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Post-close action Monday had tested the decline’s minimum 1201.50 target, whose break would next target 1172.50. Fresh lows Tuesday probed further under  the signal and then held its test as resistance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fresh lows didn’t extend, certainly not at any aggressive pace, but the decline’s momentum remains intact.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap up was not extended overnight or Tuesday morning, which instead opened back down to the 138-04 buy signal that is awaiting a valid trigger. Recovering into the afternoon pierced positive territory sporadically, still likely to extend higher aggressively if extending higher at all.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A post-close slide to fresh lows Monday foreclosed upon the 61.00 buy signal that could have triggered after Monday’s intraday bounce. The slide became a plunge — the deepest in 3 years — down to 55.70 intraday, and continued sliding post-close.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending up to fresh highs overnight ignored Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” and its vulnerability to launching at least a corrective dip. The pattern of two breakouts interrupted by a non-confirmation often produces another non-confirmation Wednesday, which would be vulnerable to reversing down into the afternoon.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s open gapped down under all prior lows and trended down intraday for the fourth consecutive session. The lower close already fulfills the minimum third lower close required by the confirmed breakout. But the persistent sentiment suggests bleeding into at least another session or more.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh lows overnight extended Monday to attack the 1201.50 objective, whose break would put into play 1172.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Avoiding fresh lows overnight didn’t prevent resuming the decline Monday morning down to 14.00. Hovering at or above September’s low suggests “ineffectual optimism” that is bearish from a contrarian perspective. .

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having recovered from prior lows Friday up to the 138-04 buy signal, Sunday night easily began probing above it. But gapping up to 138-12 only fluctuated flat-to-higher, and has yet to actually rally.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above Friday’s low formed the basis of a reversal pattern, if it could be maintained and extended. Which it wasn’t. But at least its failure filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, so any initial strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already extending to fresh highs at 3.90 Sunday night was unsustainable, so Monday’s open gapped up only to test Friday’s highs around 3.80 and then range sideways. The “ineffectual optimism” makes any initial reversal down Tuesday likely to extend intraday, targeting 3.42.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday and Thursday’s session-long downtrends had retraced from “higher prior lows” and a gap fill up to 1.1545 to pierce the 1.1400 sell signal. Trending down further Friday confirmed the break, which now requires at least an eventual third lower close. Which would necessarily create a break under the prior Wednesday’s low that Friday’s 1.1350 low was testing.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing under 1228.00 again Thursday, and to its deepest yet, extended overnight and through Friday morning to attack 1207.00. The next lower attraction in-play is 1201.50, whose break would target 1172.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down overnight greeted Friday’s open back at the same 14.28 test which had stopped the previous gap down there from extending. But its supportive value was now expended, so the test was likely to extend down intraday, and did, attacking 14.05. Any lower would essentially confirm a much larger downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Filling the gap intraday back to last Friday’s 137-02 close was recovered intraday to attack the 138-04 buy signal. Also, the inverse correlation with stocks seems to have re-engaged, so triggering the buy signal might require stocks to break lower as a catalyst for a flight-to-safety.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Although the 63.22 break’s third lower close requirement was fulfilled already, nothing had signaled the decline ending. Trending down further overnight gapped down and attacked 59.25. The d=session developed exclusively in negative territory, while testing two-month old “lower prior highs” — on the 10th day of lower consecutive prices — making the pattern vulnerable to an up/down-crash setup that either explodes higher or implodes down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday night rallied sharply from the week’s multi-session range up to 3.64, despite no interim price correction since the last gap up. Extending to 3.80 now requires a second consecutive higher close to confirm that at least an eventual third higher close is required. That’s difficult between Friday-Monday. A pullback to “lower prior highs” at 3.55 is likelier, if not also down to 3.41.