Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap up and extension higher finished the retracement of two weeks of selling pressure, but the close was still testing higher prior lows at 80.25. Almost any further dipping would be likely to return to recent lows testing 79.75 and lower.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Spiking down Thursday stopped suddenly upon intersecting with uptrending support off of two-week old lows. The entire session consolidated there instead of bouncing, all but requiring a gap up above 1.3625, and then recovering 1.3655 to disqualify and instead resume the rally.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s positive close at 1330.00 was disqualified from confirming Tuesday’s breakout attempt. Thursday’s gap down held 1313.00 to avoid triggering a new downleg underway. The gap back to Wednesday’s close or at least to within $3 should be the next leg, and its resolution should define the pattern’s next major move.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping and spiking down Thursday held the 20.80 prior low and recovered to close just above 21.05, which avoided triggering a new downleg. Closing just under 21.20 prevented signaling that momentum had reversed up to launch a new downleg.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having failed to hold 136-02 as a pullback limit Wednesday — in fact, gapping down to it and trending down intraday to 135-06 — already had undermined whether the drop was only a correction. Thursday’s plunge to 134-10 further suggested the recent decline was not necessarily limited. Closing back above 135-00 would have signaled momentum reversing up, but closing above 134-25 was enough to at least rob sellers of their traction.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s gap down extended to test 103.70 and closed at 104.05 to all but confirm the drop targeting 102.50 and 101.00 is underway. Closing above 104.70 would invalidate the downward momentum.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The favorable knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report stopped short of even touching 4.44-4.45 resistance, let alone closing above it to signal the drop’s momentum had lapsed. Its recovery still would be bullish, but closing above 4.50 is still the minimum requirement for launching a new upleg.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The excessive moves among the Euro, Natty Gas and the 30-year all come within the context of already fulfilling corrective limits. Their extensions suggest either that deeper corrections are underway, or that the legs are not corrections at all. Sudden, steep and substantial reversals Thursday would restore the original context.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s bounce back up to 80.00 resistance doesn’t reverse the trend up. It does create room to expend more selling pressure before can be very productive, but fresh lows remain likelier regardless.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down sharply Wednesday undermined the third day pattern for the 4-day sequence that began forming Tuesday. Gapping up sharply Thursday would still be in-line, so long as the session close negative — in which case fresh lows would be in store.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s opening dip touched the 1322.00 “lower prior high” that had defined Monday’s intraday peak. While closing positive for a second consecutive session, the reaction up held the same 1332.00-1335.00 resistance as Tuesday. That’s not the spirit of confirming Tuesday’s breakout. Regardless, back above 1333.00 could extend instead of continue topping.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s opening dip tested 21.05 support by a dime before recovering to fresh highs at 21.33. Now more than simply undermine the upward momentum, back under 21.05 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not only did 136-02 “lower prior highs” fail to produce support, but the open’s gap down there only extended down sharply intraday to 135-06. Nervous discounting ahead of Thursday’s Employment Situation report would explain the extended decline, but only a recovery above 135-26 would be credible for reversing momentum up at all.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s reaction down from 106.05 resistance had reversed to Monday’s low testing 104.70 support, and Wednesday’s modest bounce probed fresh lows testing 104.25. Closing lower Thursday would confirm a deeper drop underway targeting 102.50 and 101.00.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Holding 4.44-4.45 support Tuesday proved too little to avoid Wednesday’s gap down that extended to fresh lows at 4.33. Closing decisively back above 4.38 would still have been bullish, but still overlapping it does keep alive a buy signal back above 4.44-4.45.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s bounce was more like firming that doesn’t reverse momentum up, but does require that Wednesday probe fresh lows in the pattern.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down went nowhere, but it also prevented a second consecutive confirming close to Monday’s breakout. That doesn’t prevent resuming the rally Wednesday, which would set-up a highly reliable 2-3 day pattern going forward.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s post-close surge to fresh highs above 1322.00 was extended to test 1332.00-1335.00, and essentially maintained through Tuesday’s close. That’s the breakout, or at least the fresh high probe that was expected to be launched by the preceding dip to 1313.00. A second consecutive higher confirming close is less reliable, if not actually unlikely.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Underpforming Gold on Tuesday meant bouncing, and probing prior highs only slightly and only temporarily. The highs require no other retest, so closing under 21.05 would signal momentum has reversed down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s recovery from probing fresh lows intraday didn’t prevent gapping down Tuesday to Monday’s low and extending lower intraday. The pullback is targeting “lower prior highs” at 136-02 before recovering to the 137-22 objective. That, or the pattern is not bullish.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s bounce extended slightly higher Tuesday to touch the 106.05 bounce limit before reversing back down to retest 104.70 support, which still must break lower to signal the new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Tuesday did not extend Monday’s bounce to close above 4.50, intraday weakness to 4.40 did recover to hold 4.44-4.45 support and keep alive the recovery’s potential.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Despite thinner pre-holiday volume — if not, because of it — the week opened with a spike in volatility and trending effort. And the patterns don’t necessarily risk being false breaks. So, this should be an interesting week.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Finally, currencies began trending sharply out of or within their recent ranges, sending the Dollar index to a fresh low at 79.75-79.80. The trend remains down with potential to 79.40 so long as 80.15-80.25 hold as resistance.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s surge is a little overdue, but still in the right direction and without any contrary price action in the interim. The next higher objective at 1.3810 is in-play so long as pullbacks hold 1.3655.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap down to 1313.00 support bounced back to the range’s upper-end at 1322.00, and then extended sharply higher post-close to 1329.00. The breakout has yet to be done intraday, let alone confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday, and meanwhile remains vulnerable to rejection. Confirmation would target 1349.80.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down held the 20.85 sleeper low and bounced back to 21.05 resistance. Closing any higher would have potential to 22.60 if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. A single higher close would be vulnerable to rejection.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday helped to confirm Friday’s dip gained no traction, but it didn’t prevent fresh lows intraday. The fresh lows were absorbed by recovering back to the morning’s open, but no higher, as the 137-22 target above remains outstanding.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite there being no requirement to probe fresh highs, the ongoing ranging around 106.00 still needed to break under 104.70 before reversing momentum down. Monday’s dip pierced it by a nickel and then reacted up sharply to test 105.65. Now a downleg targeting 102.50 and 101.00 can be credible, so long as 106.05 holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s drop to 4.38 was an appropriate price for a low, but not appropriate timing. Interestingly, Monday found the perfect compromise by first bouncing to 4.43, and then holding a retest of 4.38. The retest launched a surge that attacked 4.50. A second consecutive higher close would signal the trend had reversed upward.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Extending down to new lows into the weekend should finally confirm the downleg is underway. Recovering 80.25 would be the earliest opportunity to suggest the break was false, and that momentum is reversing up rapidly.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s recovery from retesting 1.3585-1.3600 support extended higher Friday back to Wednesday’s 1.3655 high. There is no bullish reason that might justify further delaying a very obvious rally leg Monday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s extension of the ongoing range created no further signal. A deeper dip under 1313.00would still have potential to recover for at least one more probe of fresh highs.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly sideways into the weekend continues to predict that extending the rally would require a sudden, steep and substantial upleg to overcome the vulnerability to trending back down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s slightly higher high up to 137-12 reacted back down under Thursday afternoon’s low to 136-27, leaving outstanding the potential to 137-22. A reversal down would not be credible until the week’s confirmed breakout produces at least one more fresh recovery high close.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s recovery to 106.00 was not exceeded Friday as price only softened. There is no active signal and the ranging is threatening to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows into the weekend at 4.38 could have been an interesting low, except that this market is difficult to bottom on Fridays. A fresh low Monday that recovers to close positive and preferably above 4.48 would be bullish.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…