Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The consolidation already had extended long enough to resolve in one direction or the other — presumably down, and steeply — but it persisted anyway into the afternoon.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Another dip to 1.3600 support started the day Thursday, and that extended to test 1.3580, too. That’s at least one day past the optimal point for already trending up sharply. Squeezing higher into the weekend would still be plausible, but I would not be long in or under 1.3580-1.3600.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite not extending higher convincingly Tuesday or Wednesday, a downleg would be avoided so long as 1313.00 were held as support. Thursday’s dip tested it, and held. An intraday dip under it would be more likely to snap back to fresh highs, and less likely to suddenly extend into a new downleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not extending Wednesday’s fresh high wasn’t necessarily bearish, but there was still no attraction outstanding above. Thursday’s dip back into the range suggests that higher highs depend upon probing the range’s lower-end. Regardless, there is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding 136-18‘s target as resistance Wednesday still qualified as a breakout above a multi-session range. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm, targeting at least 137-22 so long as 136-18 continues holding as support.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Ongoing ranging around 106.00 had twice visited 107.50 above. Thursday’s dip visited 105.00. Still, 106.00 attracted price back into the range, where there remains no signal.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip was too shallow and its recovery too late for either to be considered overwhelmingly pessimistic. A positive reaction to Thursday’s EIA report would have been credible for extending higher anyway, but there was none. Instead, the optimal setup developed by probing under Monday’s lows. That would have been constructive to a bottom before the report. In the report’s wake, the reaction requires all the more that last Friday’s 4.51 low be recovered before triggering any bullish scenario.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s dip to 80.15 was a fresh low, not quite trending, but still chipping away at support to keep alive potential for a new downleg.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
While Wednesday’s lows did hold 1.3580-1.3600 support, the reaction up hasn’t yet made obvious that a new rally leg is underway. The fresh high intraday buys another day to prove it.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s fresh high didn’t extend, neither was it bearish. And not being preceded by a corrective dip onyl inhibited the ability to extend higher. So, Wednesday was able to probe fresh highs, but didn’t get very far. The pattern remains vulnerable to extending higher, but not with any required objective outstanding.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fresh high didn’t extend, neither was it bearish. And not being preceded by a corrective dip onyl inhibited the ability to extend higher. So, Wednesday was able to probe fresh highs, but didn’t get very far. The pattern remains vulnerable to extending higher, but not with any required objective outstanding.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The attraction to 136-18 was fulfilled by a surge through it to 136-30 Wednesday. But 136-18 held through the close, so no higher target is in-play.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another overnight spike up to 107.50 was retraced again entirely before the open. Regular trading hours are still ranging around 106.00, with no signal likely until at least one attempt to trend away from it.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip only touched Friday’s 4.51 low before bouncing back into the range, but that might be enough to allow a favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA report. In any case, back under 4.51 would target fresh lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s opening dip tried to recover, but failed. There is no reason to further delay extending the decline.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up from Monday’s dip to 1.3580-1.3600 support didn’t extend higher intraday before dipping back down toward support. But the support test bounced. Optimal confirmation of the bottom forming would now be to launch the recovery without further hesitation Wednesday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap up quickly expended available buying pressure as the open evolved into another narrow sideways range that dipped back under the 1319.70 prior high. A failed Ascending Triangle may be forming, and failing to hold 1313.00 support could extend down sharply.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up from the recent two-day consolidation did not extend higher intraday. But where ranging narrowly the past two days was still bullish representation of the bids underlying the market, Tuesday’s quick blip confirms optimism is already extreme. That is not yet a sell signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s late dip was rejected by Tuesday’s gap up, which extended higher intraday to 136-06 and toward the outstanding 136-18 attraction in-play.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sideways ranging Tuesday tested 106.00 support, and left outstanding potential to retest Sunday night’s 107.37 high.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up extended to fill the gap back to Friday’s close. Now, dipping to test Monday’s range under 4.49 and closing back above Friday’s 4.52 low would form a bottom.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down to 80.00-80.45 did extend down intraday, but not yet enough to confirm a new downleg is underway. And a new downleg should be underway by noon Tuesday if the Dollar can avoid a broad rally.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s dip back into 1.3580-1.3600 support should launch a new rally leg without delay, unless the next leg is not a rally. Monday’s firming is not optimal,  but it isn’t inappropriate, not so long as there is no further delay in extending obviously higher Tuesday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s flat ranging reflects not an extended market, but an optimistic consolidation. Any initial dip would be likely to recover to fresh highs. Simply extending higher first would be less durable.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s flat ranging reflects not an extended market, but an optimistic consolidation. Any initial dip would be likely to recover to fresh highs. Simply extending higher first would be less durable.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite Monday’s gap up to 136-00 not extending and higher and only dipping intraday, a bigger bounce targeting at least 136-18 is in-play so long as 134-24 support isn’t broken.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s probe of 50 cents above Friday’s 106.95 high was retraced entirely before Monday’s open, which held the test of prior highs and weakened slightly. The overnight night range need not be tested before extending back down, but its retest would target 108.75. Meanwhile, back under 104.30 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 102.75 and targeting 100.30.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not only did Monday’s session avoid trying to rally, its open gapped down and the balance of the session remained in negative territory. The session did not trend down, so an Island Reversal would be credible for extending higher if Tuesday’s open were to gap up.  Otherwise, there is no active pattern.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Is this going to be the week for currencies to break out of their recent choppy ranges? Precious Metals can’t make such substantial moves without it having effects on currencies.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s bounce extended higher at Friday’s open but only to test 80.55 resistance above. The balance of the session ranged sideways, free to trend substantially in either direction, with the next trending attempt being likely to extend.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s gap down back to 1.3580 wasn’t just more of the same ongoing pattern’s choppiness, but likely the last opportunity either to extend down to prior lows or else to launch a new rally leg to fresh highs. Friday’s recovery to test 1.3600 makes the pattern free to begin trending in either direction without delay.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight probed above Thursday’s 1317.00 high up to 1322.50. A dip into Friday’s open bounced off of 1307 back up to 1320.00. Closing above 1313.00 kept alive the rally’s momentum, or at least makes an immediate dip unlikely to gain traction before retesting the 1322.50 overnight high.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s rally back up to at least 20.82 was extended into Friday’s open to test 21.00. A pullback to 20.45 remains likely, and its break would trigger a much deeper retracement underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s test of the 134-28 prior low had held, and delaying its actual break made fresh highs at 136-18 likely. So does Friday’s bounce that extended Thursday’s reaction up to 135-15.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Prior highs were attacked and pierced Friday, but not so much probed and certainly not recovered. Reversing down immediately by noon Monday would be entirely credible for launching a new downleg with potential to probe under $100, triggered under 104.85 and confirmed under 103.70.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip under 4.61 extended down to fresh lows Friday, filling the gap back down to the prior week’s 4.51 low close. Back above 4.61 would signal the rally had resumed.

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