Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

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Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Not confirming Wednesday’s breakout on Thursday left the pattern vulnerable to Friday’s Employment Situation report, which triggered a drop back to prior lows around 80.70. The close didn’t break any lower, so there is no greater likelihood of extending down any further, instead of recovering back up into — and potentially through — the range.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday morning’s attack on Wednesday’s highs had retraced, but it was exceeded in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. A fresh high Friday morning was maintained, but closed within the 1.3660 noise range above the prior high. A second consecutive higher close would signal a new rally underway. Otherwise, the consolidation persists, along with the vulnerability to resolving down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight action already had tested 1230.50-1232.50 resistance up to 1237.00. Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a much bigger rally that probed prior highs up to 1248.50. Higher targets at 1270.00 are in-play so long as 1240.00 now holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing above 19.70 extended sharply higher in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, putting into play higher targets at 20.75.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
There’s no doubt that the market was bottoming off of the decline’s 127-27 target that had held two tests. That was finally proved by the sharp reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, which surged 2 points to the highest levels in six weeks. A pullback has room down to 130-04 or 129-16, but under 129-94 would signal a retest of the bottoming pattern.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping up Friday barely improved intraday upon Thursday’s post-close gains, despite testing 93.35 early morning. The gap back to Thursday’s close was left outstanding and it will want to be filled. A more thorough retset of the 90.50-91.25 target area remains likely.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down overnight to 3.95 was erased before Friday’s open, which was extended to 4.10. But the pattern still has at least one more lower close outstanding, and the likelihood of it visiting 3.87.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The massive Head & Shoulders forming in Natural Gas started breaking lower Wednesday, extended lower Thursday, and has no reason not to extend further into and out of the weekend. There being no excuse, retracing the dip Friday could be bullish.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s dip was recovered back up to Wednesday’s high, but was still testing it instead of clearly extending higher to confirm a bigger upleg underway. There should be on further delay if the rally’s momentum remains intact.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The ongoing drop found brief respite in the delayed reaction to Thursday morning’s BOE and ECB interest rate policy announcements. The steep surge testing Wednesday’s high wasn’t retraced entirely back down under Wednesday’s lows, where a second consecutive lower close could confirm a much more substantial decline is underway. But there should be no further delay to extending the decline if it remains valid.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bounce testing 1230.50 resistance were held back Thursday, essentially greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness that requires all the more for any bullish scenario to recover at least 1232.50, if not also 1237.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing held the 19.70 resistance whose recovery is still needed to signal another rally leg is underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s high is a little premature for a pattern whose main problem is the impatient optimism preventing a bottom to finish forming. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down on Friday’s Employment Situation report could finish the bottom. By the same token, reacting up would be likely to retrace.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The drop extended Thursday toward its 90.50-91.25 target, which remains intact so long as bounces now hold 93.35 as resistance.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The massive Head & Shoulders pattern began breaking lower into Wednesday’s close under 4.24, and extended down further through Thursday’s EIA report to test 4.05. The 3.87 target remains in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas closed too low for anything but an immediate and substantial surge to avoid trending down from the current Head & Shoulders pattern. That surge could be triggered by Thursday morning’s EIA report. Or, else.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap up was retraced barely deep enough to fill its gap back down to Tuesday’s close before recovering back to the morning’s highs. The only reliable path back down without yet probing fresh highs would be to gap down under Wednesday’s low. The rally’s momentum meanwhile remains intact.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s opening probe of prior lows was retraced to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, neutralizing its attraction, before reversing back down to fresh lows. Closing lower again Thursday would confirm a much bigger downleg is underway, and bounces meanwhile should hold 1.3600.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows in reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes sent price lower to attack 1217.00 support. Holding it allows a probe above 1226.00 to begin signaling momentum reversing up. But resistance remains outstanding at 1230.50 and 1232.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s fresh lows filled an outstanding gap back down to 19.37 where the prior surge had originated. But a close above 19.70 was avoided, which would have signaled already that momentum was reversing up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Shallow dips and premature surges were proved to be reflecting excessive optimism by gapping down Wednesday. The action may prove to be bullish for leaving outstanding a gap above at Tuesday’s close, which could help to attract price higher in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report — that is, if left outstanding Thursday.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s dip to 93.35 that recovered to 94.15 did not extend higher Wednesday to prove a low was forming. Instead, fresh lows attacked 92.00, probably on the way to 90.50-91.25.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip into negative territory probably signaled an early warning that the massive Head & Shoulders pattern is triggering, targeting 3.87. A favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA report must close above 4.38 to signal the pattern was instead breaking higher.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday might be the last opportunity for Natural Gas to rally out of its recent dip, and to avoid breaking lower from the Head & Shoulders pattern that has been forming.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Another momentary fresh high briefly pierced Tuesday’s high before settling back into the range for the balance of the session. Almost any early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s dip was just an “inside day” that shouldn’t further delay resolving into a new downleg. Any break under 1.3595 would be likely to trend down intraday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not closing above 1240.00 Monday wasn’t bearish, not unless 1237.00 wasn’t maintained through a close. Tuesday’s lows did probe lower, and then slid under 1222.00. Closing under 1230.50 and 1232.50 in a single session now requires closing back above both simultaneously to resume the rally’s momentum.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip ultimately held 19.70, which the recovery cannot afford to break. There is no reason to further delay resuming the rally, if a recovery is still unfolding.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Early weakness held 128-28 Tuesday instead of probing it before recovering to a fresh high testing 129-12. That shallow of a dip didn’t stretch the rubber band tightly enough for assuring that its snap back up would be very productive. Its bounce might extend, but not reliably.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming Tuesday didn’t bounce very high, but at least its directional change avoided extending the recent decline any deeper where a more substantial downleg would have been triggered. Closing above 94.65 would signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday only filled the gap outstanding above at 4.43, and its resistance sent price back down into negative territory. The close was just above the 4.24 sell signal that would trigger the massive Head & Shoulders pattern targeting 3.87. Revisiting Tuesday’s opening print could prevent its reaction down from extending.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Will Natural Gas find a catalyst before Thursday’s EIA report to trigger a recovery? Record cold doesn’t seem to be doing it, and almost any fresh low could trigger a massive Head & Shoulders pattern that has been forming.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
A momentary fresh high Monday morning was retraced intraday, but not so low as to signal the rally’s momentum had lapsed.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s bounce left the confirmed breakout intact despite retracing all of Friday’s dip. Any fresh low should resume the decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting the 1245.00 overnight high up to almost 1248.00 did not prevent a fat-finger glitch, or generally dipping back to test 1237.00 as support. But potential for extending to 1270.00 remains intact so long as 1232.50 holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy sideways ranging into and out of positive territory left the 20.70 objective intact, especially so long as Tuesday were to avoid closing lower.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap up extended higher intraday to 129-11, which is a little too optimistic to consider the bottoming pattern to have yet completed. But its next dip under 128-28 should end the selling pressure.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s dip to 93.35 expended as much selling pressure as possible while still being considered only a pullback, requiring some immediate proof of momentum reversing upward to avoid a more substantial decline.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s bounce attempt didn’t repeat Monday, but fresh lows were avoided so the larger potential Head & Shoulders pattern did not trigger.

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