Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Natural Gas rally effort started the week with a try, try again attitude. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday is all but mandatory to the effort, and to avoid resuming the decline.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day serves the same purpose as Wednesday’s similar setup, which is to attract the next trending attempt back to and through it in the opposite direction. Probing a fresh low and reacting up would essentially signal a new upleg underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day serves the same purpose as Wednesday’s similar setup, which is to attract the next trending attempt back to and through it in the opposite direction. Probing a fresh high and reacting down would essentially signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing a fresh high overnight up to 1382.40 was unable to extend beyond the leg’s 1375.00 target, as the balance of the session probed back under it down to 1362.20.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging continued consolidating the recent surge, with room for extending further intraday just slightly higher at 24.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another fresh low Monday at 130-05 suggests that the decline’s 131-06 target is extending, next targeting 129-10 or 128-14.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
[Rolling coverage forward from Sep to Oct, trading at a 25-cent discount] Already having tested 106.25 support, the rally could not afford another entire day’s delay to resuming. But 106.25 was tested anyway throughout the day, which all but requires Tuesday’s open to be in rally mode if its 110.50 target remained intact.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up didn’t extend higher intraday past 3.50, but did maintain its recovery above prior highs to give last week’s 3.36 buy signal another chance at launching a new rally leg. At least 3.57 is currently targeted, with potential to 3.70.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold met its objective Friday. The objective had been created by patterns preceding July’s rally. The interim correction was very orderly, so there is potential for extending the upleg. But that will require a new signal.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s fresh low attacking 81.05 was recovered to attack 81.45 resistance, but no new signal can yet be calculated.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s recovery back above 1.3333 initially extended Friday morning to test 1.3380, but reversed back down to test and range narrowly around 1.3333 through the afternoon. There is not yet a signal.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The rally extended Friday to essentially fulfill its 1375.00 target. The rally now requires a higher close Monday to confirm its momentum remains intact, although there is room for a pullback to test 1355.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Slightly higher highs attacked the 23.50 resistance to within only a dime Friday. A pullback limit can be identified now at 22.75.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s test of the 131-06 target was eventually probed Friday by sharply lower lows testing 130-16. The minimum requirement for signaling that momentum has reversed up is to close above 132-12.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday morning’s probe above 108.15 was reversed into negative territory, but held the 106.50 pullback limit that maintains the 110.65 target.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s open gapped down slightly and ranged narrowly, supported by 3.36. The rally should resume in obvious fashion Monday morning if it is valid.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight It is certainly interesting that the long-bond fell out of bed in tandem with stocks Thursday. Usually, it serves as a destination in a “flight-to-quality.” But the bond had a target in-play, and now it has been met.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
One of the two gaps outstanding below was filled when Thursday’s attempt to resume the rally was rejected decisively. The lower gap need not be filled before rallying more substantially, but no new signal is yet available from this pattern.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The congestion that was formed by Wednesday’s inside day did cause a bounce to fail. The bounce was a little shallower and a little shorter lived than was expected, reversing down into Thursday morning from barely probing 1.3333 overnight. The premature failure proved to be lacking sponsorship when its fresh low was reversed up sharply intraday well above 1.3333. A sell signal has been averted for now, but more topping is still likely.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight up to 1346.00 were retraced back down to Tuesday’s 1319.00 lows. Breaking under it would have signaled a top had formed. Instead its test launched a surge to fresh highs testing 1369.00. The rally’s 1375.00 target remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1352.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The rally extended sharply higher to test 23.20. Pullbacks now have room all the way back down to 22.15 whose break would signal momentum reversing down. But the rally has room for extending further only to 23.50.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having absorbed Tuesday’s shock to the system by ranging narrowly Wednesday, the drop resumed Thursday and quickly fulfilled the long-outstanding 131-06 objective. There is no new signal.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The firming continued Wednesday night amid ongoing rioting in Egypt, attacking 108.00. The 110.65 target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 106.50 as support.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report didn’t interfere with the firming already underway that has now extended back above 3.36 to signal a new rally leg underway. Its initial objective at 3.57 and then to 3.70 remain intact so long as pullbacks now hold 3.34 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas has been creeping upward, poised at resistance for Thursday’s EIA report to launch a new rally leg.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday produced an inside day that doesn’t yet signal trending, while making an attempt to extend down likely to recover and possibly reverse the trend back up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The extended pullback did not react up Wednesday, and only ranged narrowly sideways. Still no signal until a rally effort fails.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s dip was largely retraced Wednesday, at least to probe back above the 1330.50 pullback limit which had failed to hold Tuesday. Back above 1339.00 would signal the rally had resumed.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs Wednesday probed above the rally’s 21.50 target that had been fulfilled Tuesday, further testing “higher prior lows” above 21.80. There is room up to 22.00 before dipping back under 21.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down so sharply Tuesday was a shock to the system that Wednesday’s sideways ranging spent time absorbing. The inside day did not reverse momentum, which should resume its decline without much further delay.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s firming back up through 106.50 to test 107.00 has little reason to further delay launching an obvious rally leg. Pullbacks meanwhile should recover aggressively from any probe under 106.00.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Price continued firming Wednesday, testing the 3.36 resistance whose recovery would launch a new upleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s rally seems to be resuming right on schedule. Settling higher through Wednesday’s EIA report should confirm fresh highs are in-play.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The recovery didn’t hesitate before extending higher Tuesday, now creating a second gap outstanding below. The extra rally session also creates more room to absorb selling pressure without it gaining traction to become a new downleg.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Not resuming the rally without delay makes it likely to have ended. Tuesday’s drop to fresh lows suggests as much, but still doesn’t signal that momentum has actually reversed down. The next bounce should fail and become a new downleg.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1330.50 pullback limit was probed deeply in Tuesday’s test of 1320.00. The rally’s momentum is in jeopardy if not resumed by Wednesday’s close.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s session barely budged as Monday’s surge was consolidated less than 20 cents under the 21.50 target.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending at all above Monday’s test of 135-00 would have signaled a much more substantial detour higher before probing fresh lows. Tuesday’s open gapped down sharply and tested 132-12. That leaves outstanding a gap up to Monday’s 134-04 close that can attract price back up after new lows fulfill 131-06.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs overnight up to 107.20 still pulled back for a little more consolidation through Tuesday morning. After that was fulfilled, the afternoon firmed back up above 106.50. The rally should resume without delay.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s dip held 3.26, and back above 3.36 would be credible for launching a new upleg.

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