Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s surge Sunday night revealed a degree of elasticity that keeps alive higher targets without having to keep alive the rally’s momentum.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s narrow ranging did not offer any new guidance to the pattern.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s narrow ranging did not offer any new guidance to the pattern.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s surge attacking the 1410.00 objective had disappeared entirely before Monday’s open. Intraday weakness held the 1388.00 pullback limit to avoid reversing momentum down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Potential to 24.55 was nearly fulfilled by Monday morning’s attack on 24.45. The reaction down held above 24.00 to avoid reversing momentum down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Early strength Monday above 132-10 was retraced back into negative territory, all but confirming that a rally is unlikely to begin without first producing one more new low close.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The obligatory reaction to weekend war talk didn’t last long. Sunday night’s gap up to fresh recovery highs disappeared Monday as price turned negative intraday.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up suffered the same “ineffectual optimism” that inhibited last week’s rally efforts, and the balance of the session essentially ranged narrowly unchanged. Still, trying to rally anyway suggests the pattern intends to correct more through the passage of time than through a traditional price pullback.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold extended sharply higher Friday to confirm Thursday’s breakout. The only two questions now seem to be how much higher, and how quickly. The third question should still have the same answer — then a move to new lows gets underway.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s dip back under Thursday’s low recovered enough to spend the afternoon ranging around 81.45, whose recovery already suggests that a bottom has formed and that a new upleg is underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s bounce off of 1.3333 essentially filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1.3422 close. A reaction down prevented the bounce from gaining traction, and now back under 1.3360 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s breakout to 1381.00 extended higher without delay Friday, extending to attack 1399.00. The rally’s momentum now targeting 1410.00 remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 1388.00, and momentum would reverse down under 1383.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday morning’s surge through 23.50 eventually probed a dime above 24.00. There is potential to 24.55 so long as pullbacks now hold 23.40. But a close under 23.20 would be needed to signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s early break above 131-00 resistance extended to test 131-30 resistance intraday. Resistance stretches up to 132-04 and 132-10 before assuming Wednesday night’s drop to within 10 ticks of the 128-18 target has fulfilled the decline, which would be back in-play under 131-00.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite not yet completing its pullback objective to at least 103.25, Thursday’s bounce to 105.20 extended Friday to 106.95. Back under 105.40 would signal the bounce had ended, and under 104.90 would resume the decline, targeting 103.25 and potentially 102.65.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week was filled with not confirming Monday’s breakout, not immediately correcting the weak buying pressure, and then trying to extend higher prematurely. Even Friday’s dip was suspicious for perhaps being too shallow. But rallying Monday from the dip to 3.48-3.50 would still be credible for resuming the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s probe of fresh highs came right on schedule Thursday. Scheduled for Friday is proof of whether the breakout attempt is valid, by extending higher without delay.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s test of 81.45 was followed by Thursday’s gap up through it, which later held 81.45 intraday as support to suggest a new rally leg is underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s lower low more thoroughly tested 1.3333 whose break through the close would signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging had made at least a rally effort likely, which Thursday’s test of 1381.00 began to fulfill. Overnight highs above 1382.00 have yet to be retested. Its retest isn’t required before launching a downleg, which would gradually gain traction under 1361.00 and 1355.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
More narrow sideways ranging under 24.00 Thursday, which at least opened by surging, as if to reassure us the patient still has a pulse. It will take more than that.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s late dip that filled the gap back to Monday’s close came too late to recover, making it likely to extend down. New lows overnight did not quite attack the 128-14 target and Thursday’s gap down reacted up into positive territory, but the pattern still requires at least one new low close.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s slight firming did not derail the downleg’s likely objectives at 103.25 or 102.65.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up and probe above recent highs did not extend intraday, still being inhibited by the prior three sessions. A pullback would have been helpful, probably allowing the rally to resume. A test of 3.57 would be more revealing.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Dollar stopped just short of signaling that a bottom had formed. The setup that predicted this attempt allows only a little more time before a rally must be underway — if not a new downleg instead.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s retest of prior lows was attracted back up Wednesday by the magnetic narrow congestion that had formed on Monday’s inside day. The recovery extended to test 81.45 but failed to close above it, which would have signaled a new rally leg underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s drop tried to reject Tuesday’s retest of recent highs, but stopped short of testing the 1.3333 reversal signal, let alone closing under it.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s dip back to Monday’s lows was still just more ranging around the rally’s 1375.00 target. The delay in extending higher doesn’t necessarily avoid a deeper dip, but the delay in reversing down does suggest the rally will try to resume. It might not get very far before failing, but it should try to resume.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow sideways ranging under 24.00 has persisted a little long, even for digesting such a substantial near-term move as the one that peaked nearly a week ago. The next trending attempt is likely to be false.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s premature rally did not extend higher Wednesday. Ranging sideways managed to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 130-14 close, but a new low close remains likely.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s drop extended down Wednesday, now likely to test 103.25 or 102.65 instead of triggering the 106.25 buy signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to Monday and Tuesday’s highs was a day late for providing the optimism that would have been better-timed Tuesday to confirm Monday’s breakout. That becomes problematic ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, which might force a normal correction to 3.36 into extending to 3.30.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s volatility may have been affected partially by the Dollar’s drop Tuesday. But the Dollar’s drop — which is trying to resume its recent decline — has an opportunity to form a durable bottom if another rally begins without delay.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The congestion of Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day made the next trending attempt likely to fail. That would help to recover from trending down first that retests prior lows. Prior lows were tested Tuesday, so closing back above 81.45 would now launch a new rally leg. The pattern is otherwise vulnerable to extending the decline.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The congestion of Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day made the next trending attempt likely to fail. That would help to recover from trending up first that retests recent highs. Tuesday did test prior highs, so reversing to close back under 1.3333 would now launch a new downleg. The pattern is otherwise vulnerable to extending the rally.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging around 1375.00 did not affect the pattern. Not extending down further prevented trapping shorts that would have been reliable for extending the rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly Tuesday still held under the 24.00 bounce limit whose recovery would signal the rally was extending.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap up to test Monday’s upper-end was too shallow to even begin invalidating the two prior sessions’ consecutive lower closes, and the balance of the session ranged around 131-06. The two prior sessions’ setup requires at least one more new low close, which the gap back down to Monday’s close will try to attract.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s close had not yet resumed the rally off of its 106.25 pullback limit test, requiring the rally to resume by Tuesday’s open. Instead, the open gapped down to test 105.20. An intraday bounce up to 107.00 was retraced entirely back down to new session lows testing 104.65. Gapping up Wednesday above 106.25 would signal the rally has resumed.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up did not extend higher Tuesday, failing to provide a confirming second consecutive higher close. “Lower prior highs” down to 3.36 are likely to be tested before the rally can resume.

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