Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Sunday night’s  reaction to delaying action in Syria resembled what might happen in case of world peace. But when that had sunk in, price action began compensating for delays from last week.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday morning’s test of 82.55 avoided testing Friday’s 82.25-82.35 “lower prior highs” as support. Trending higher without delay may be the only way to extend the decline without inserting a bigger bounce.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s ~1.3175 prior low was tested by Tuesday’s gap down. The balance of the session ranged sideways, probing fresh lows under 1.3140. The trend remains down so long as 1.3220 isn’t recovered.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s gap down to 1374.20 was recovered entirely before Tuesday’s open, which then extended into positive territory back above 1410.00, signaling a retest of the 1418.00 and 1428.00 opening gaps underway so long as 1405.50 again holds as support.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s deep gap down tested “lower prior highs” down to 23.11 before recovering into positive territory up to 24.40, and then extending further to probe above 24.50, confirming momentum has reversed up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down back to 131-28 began signaling that filling the outstanding gap above last week had only neutralized upside momentum. Extending down to 130-25 all but confirmed, despite recovering to attack 131-28.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The most obvious to suffer from delaying any action in Syria, Sunday night’s open gapped down sharply to 105.50. But it was recovered through Tuesday to attack 109.00, testing the 108.75 buy signal that puts into play a retest of 110.65 and potentially also of 112.25.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up above 3.64 was already testing 3.67. The balance of the session ranged narrowly just above prior highs. Not that this rally has had much luck at it, but a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new upleg underway.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Has Crude Oil completed its correction from the pre-war surge?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Extending to fresh highs Friday confirmed Thursday’s breakout, putting into play 83.10 so long as 81.85 holds as support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Extending sharply lower Friday confirmed Thursday’s breakout, putting into play 1.304 so long as 1.3265 holds as resistance.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite 1405.50 having held its test as support Thursday, lower lows overnight and Friday morning tested 1491.50. A reaction up held 1405.50 as resistance, needing to recover it for another probe above 1420.00 to be in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s key reversal had fulfilled its minimum objectives Thursday, but extended down further Friday. Closing back above 24.10 would signal the pullback was resolving up to probe back above 25.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s ranging held a retest of Thursday’s highs. But not yet resuming the decline does keep the door open to extending the interim bounce. Closing back under 132-10 and 131-30 would still resume the decline.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The pullback extended lower Thursday night to 106.75, which was attacked Friday morning. A probe above 110.65 would be in-play back above 108.75.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s recovery did not extend higher Friday. Neither was it rejected, so any early strength above 3.64 Monday would still be credible for extending higher through the day.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Has the Euro finally launched a new downleg? Without confirming Thursday’s drop on Friday, a much bigger rally could soon be underway.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
81.45‘s recovery  Wednesday was extended sharply higher Thursday. A second consecutive higher close Friday — preferably above 82.10 — would confirm a new rally leg is underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Testing and retesting of 1.3333 finally gave way to sharply lower lows Thursday. The delay requires a second consecutive lower close Friday to confirm that a new downleg is actually underway, preferably under 1.3220.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s failure to confirm Tuesday’s breakout enabled a deeper pullback Thursday that held its 1405.50 pullback limit. A retest of Wednesday’s 1428.30 opening gap is now likely.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s key reversal wasted no time filling both outstanding gaps below down to 23.80. A retest of Wednesday’s 24.93 opening print is now likely.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s initial follow-through from Wednesday’s drop back to 132-10 held a test of 131-30 instead of closing under it to confirm momentum had reversed down.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The shock to the system of having probed the 110.65 target temporarily up to 112.25 was still being absorbed Thursday. There is no new signal.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s early strength to test 3.65 ultimately created extra room to absorb a negative knee-jerk reaction to the EIA report down to 3.51. The recent range held its probe from above, and recovered into the close above 3.57. The rally can now extend so long as 3.54 holds as support.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Overnight follow-through to Tuesday’s beating war drum was less relevant intraday Wednesday. Could markets have been too confident that hostilities were coming, or that they would have an effect?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Recovering to 81.45 and ranging around it Wednesday now must follow-through without delay Thursday to become a new upleg. Otherwise, another downdraft will have become much likelier for the near-term.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dip ranged around Tuesday’s 1.3333 low, whose break would also signal a new downleg underway. That’s now two attempts to trend down without result. Almost any early rally Thursday would be credible for at last probing fresh highs, if not trending up.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing sharply higher Tuesday night was retraced entirely, ranging narrowly sideways intraday Wednesday around Tuesday’s close. That prevented a second consecutive higher close, putting the rally in jeopardy of reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The overnight rally through 25.00 was retraced to close in negative territory Wednesday, forming a “key reversal” setup that often triggers a multi-session trend reversal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down retraced all of Tuesday’s flight-to-safety back to 132-10. Closing under 131-30 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting new lows.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday night’s multi-dollar rally probed above 112.00, but only Wednesday’s open touched the rally’s 110.65 target. The balance of the session consolidated around 110.00. There is no new signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming to the recent range’s upper-end ahead of Thursday’s EIA report does position the market for a favorable reaction to extend sharply higher. It also requires a favorable reaction in order to avoid a significant decline.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight War drums put market participants on the defensive for Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Interestingly, the Dollar did not participate.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s momentary blip-up was reversed into negative territory that essentially ranged around 81.45. Its previous recovery has yet to be confirmed for launching a new rally leg.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Big overnight moves in Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds were not accompanied by any more Euro weakness than to attack last week’s lows at the 1.3333 support. That suggested the Euro was weaker from peer pressure, more than from a bearish downleg developing. In fact, the drop recovered back into positive territory, suggesting a bigger rally leg is developing

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s attack on 1410.00 was a warning shot across the bow. Monday night’s rally was a direct hit, extending higher intraday to also attack 1424.00. The rally’s momentum is undermined back under 1408.50, and momentum reverses back down under 1403.50. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would put into play targets up to 1475.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up above Monday’s 24.45 high essentially ranged narrowly sideways up to 24.70. Extending any higher would  next target 25.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The war environment’s flight-to-safety enabled 132-10 resistance to break higher Tuesday. The outstanding fresh low close as yet required by the pattern may be delayed. Meanwhile, there was no accumulative pattern at the low to put into play a higher target, although the next opportunity for peaking would likely come after touching 133-28.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday night’s rally through the 106.50 buy signal did what Sunday night’s gap up only threatened. The corrective pattern was going to be difficult to complete amid war headlines, anyway. Lacking a base could limit the interim rally to only testing 110.65 before resuming the decline.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still paying the price for its “ineffectual optimism,” Tuesday’s open gapped down to “lower prior highs” before bouncing back into positive territory While the rally could resume and extend without delay or hesitation, the setup is not optimal without first absorbing a deeper intraday dip.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…