Daily Spot
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold and Crude Oil plunged Tuesday, retracing all of their recent “worry” premiums. And no more. Very relevant support is being tested in each instance, with no room and little time to avoid extending the drops.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap up did not extend higher and the balance of the session ranged narrowly back down to Monday’s close, making it difficult to consider the recent dip as having ended.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday without extending higher was not bullish, but sellers did not retake control as the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways. Early trending Wednesday would be likely to extend.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
While waiting for Friday morning’s surge to extend, it was retraced entirely. Monday’s narrow ranging above 1384.50 gave way overnight to a plunge back down to 1357.60. Once again, closing under 1377.00 requires opening above 1381.00 to reinstate upward momentum. So long as 1377.00-1381.00 isn’t required, the drop can extend down to “lower prior highs” at 1341.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday probed under the 23.10 origin of Friday’s surge down to 22.85. The pattern has no room and little time to delay recovering back up to 23.55 if a deeper downleg targeting 22.00 can be avoided.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down to 128-20 essentially retraced all of Friday’s spike up on the Employment Situation report. Its natural support produced a bounce up to 129-14, which must hold as resistance to maintain potential for fresh lows down to 127-04.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s shallow dip from 110.65 seemed skeptical toward avoiding Syrian confrontation. Tuesday’s plunge to 106.40 seems overly-assured. Closing back above 107.50 would trigger a retest of recent highs, but there is otherwise no active signal.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s bounce had rejected Friday’s extended drop. The bounce also allowed room for Tuesday’s dip without it renewing the drop. Closing back above 3.61 is still needed to launch a new upleg.
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Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s reaction to retesting the rally’s target was somewhat muted, much more skeptical of being above to avoid escalating tension in the Middle East.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s open slid through 82.10 support to test 81.70. Closing back above 81.785 would signal the two-day drop had ended and that last week’s highs would soon be probed.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up to and through 1.3205 resistance Monday trended higher intraday. At least probing fresh highs intraday Tuesday is likely. In any case, the downleg will not resume without breaking back under 1.3205.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s narrow ranging consolidated Friday’s sudden reversal. The recovery should resume Tuesday so long as 1381.00 holds as support.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down into the 23.55-23.75 range spent the entire day there, presumably consolidating Friday’s rally. The recovery should resume Tuesday without much further delay, and without closing back under 23.55.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s intraday dip back down to 129-04 support was being tested through the close. Monday’s open gapped up from its test but only ranged sideways between 129-14/130-01. Closing back under 129-04 would target fresh lows at 127-04.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s retest of the rally’s 110.65 target was retraced immediately again, this time only back down to 109.25. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would be likelier to extend the rally.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up to range up to 3.61 rejected Friday’s extended dip, needing a higher close Tuesday to signal the rally had resumed.
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Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond had fulfilled its minimum downside objective Thursday. That enabled a bounce in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. But probably not a durable bounce, which is why so much of the reaction was returned before the weekend. Crude Oil is meanwhile retesting the rally’s target, and deciding whether to extend or to collapse.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Reacting down to Friday’s Employment Situation report tested Thursday’s 82.10 low, which must hold as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s overnight retest of Thursday’s 1.3110 low reacted up on the Employment Situation report. But it is only a corrective bounce if 1.3205 is not also recovered.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight were blind-sided by Friday’s Employment Situation report. The reaction triggered a gap up above 1381.00. Its recovery through Friday’s close would have signaled momentum reversing up. Gapping up above it Friday is a proxy for at least having recovered 1377.00 to signal the decline is done, with upside objectives at 1410.00 and higher now in-play.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight responded well to the Employment Situation report, surging through the 23.55-23.75 buy signal and gapping up Friday above it. The Island’s gap back up to 24.40 and high is now in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows overnight down to 128-12 retested the three-week old overnight low before the Employment Situation report triggered a spike up to 130-01. Having greeted the report from weakness, the reaction up is likely just from being being oversold. In fact, the spike was retraced to its 129-04 pullback limit that we discussed during the Market Tour. Closing any lower would signal the decline had resumed, next targeting 127-04.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s close above 180.75 extended higher Friday to fulfill the minimum 110.65 target. Fresh highs above 112.25 are possible so long as 109.75 were to hold as support.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday extended Thursday’s dip back under 3.57, but without gaining momentum. Any initial strength Monday would again be likely to extend igher intraday.
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Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond’s pattern finally fulfilled its outstanding objective to produce at least one more new low close. Doing so ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation Report without reacting back up into the close was not the recipe for a bottom.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s drop to 82.10 support resolved up sharply Thursday. Closing above 82.75 Friday would confirm the rally had resumed, its higher targets in-play.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Holding the 1.3220 bounce limit intraday and overnight Wednesday allowed Thursday’s opening plunge to probe fresh lows under 1.3145. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close is the minimum requirement to even suggesting a bottom may be forming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing back under the 1404.50 pullback limit Tuesday did not form a downleg, only a drop to the wide range’s lower-end. Rallying sharply through Thursday’s open did not prevent an even deeper drop Thursday testing 1365.00. Closing back above 1377.00 would have robbed sellers of their traction, so holding it as support after gapping up above 1381.00 Friday is the minimum requirement to begin reversing momentum up.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s Island continued its reversal Thursday by probing under Monday-Wednesday’s lows. Sunday night’s 23.11 low was also probed, although it ultimately held as support. Back above 23.55-23.75 would trigger a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The drop resumed and extended Thursday down to 128-18, finally fulfilling the pattern’s outstanding requirement for at least one more new low close. There was no reaction up intraday, and two-week old overnight action printed lower, so lower lows with potential to 127-04 may be in-play.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s close above 108.15 signals momentum has reversed up, targeting at least 110.65.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not confirming Tuesday’s breakout Wednesday undermined Thursday’s gap up that pierced the outstanding 3.70 target. It was reversed back down to the rally’s prior target at 3.57. Nevertheless, initial strength Friday would be credible for resuming the rally.
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Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Were Tuesday’s moves undone Wednesday, or were they reset? Any price action Thursday that resembles Tuesday’s Gold surge or Crude Oil rally would be credible for extending higher. But Tuesday’s rallies were all but required after Sunday night’s drops — they aren’t required now.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s dip back down to 82.10 stopped short of reversing momentum down. Closing back above 82.50 would resume the rally.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Reacting up Wednesday from Tuesday’s fresh low held the 1.3220 bounce limit. Back under 1.3175 would resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Tuesday’s recovery back above 1410.00, the 1405.50 pullback limit soon gave way on the way back down to Wednesday’s 1384.60 low. There is not currently a sell signal, and room up to 1405.50 before signaling a new rally leg underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped down back under Friday afternoon’s 23.75 high, leaving in between Tuesday’s Island up to 24.50. The reversal is stunning, but back above 23.75 would target a fresh high above 24.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s drop had retraced somewhat into the close, and Wednesday’s selling pressure stopped short of probing fresh lows. But a return to prior lows still gets every benefit of the doubt for being underway.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s recovery up to the 108.75 buy signal was retraced Wednesday down to 106.75. Closing back above 108.15 would now signal the rally targeting 110.65 has resumed.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging did not extend Tuesday’s breakout, so it did not confirm Tuesday’s breakout. But neither did it reject Tuesday’s breakout, leaving upside momentum intact going into Thursday’s EIA report.
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