Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Was it a sense of calm, or anxiousness, that permeated the air Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC statement? Either way, volatility was limited to the Energies.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s narrow sideways range didn’t reject Monday’s gap. Nor did it confirm it. There is no active signal going into Wednesday’s FOMC statement.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging sideways Tuesday still pierced Monday’s low to actually test the 1.3333 level, which is still trying to resist a much larger rally from beginning.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Failing another test of 1321.00 resistance this time pushed back down to the recent ~1305.00 low, all but assuring at least a fresh low. A fresh low’s rejection would make triggering the buy signal more reliable. Triggering the buy signal without first probing a fresh low would be suspicious.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce was rejected by Tuesday’s gap down that extended back to recent lows, leaving no active signal ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC statement.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite retracing all of Monday morning’s gap up back into negative territory, Tuesday’s session only ranged sideways in positive territory between 129-28/130-12. There is no trending underway ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC statement, with equal potential for resuming the decline to 127-04 or for launching a rally above 131-00.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 106.75 pullback limit broke lower Tuesday to test 105.00. Any near-term recovery potential requires rejecting the extra dip by closing sharply higher Wednesday, if not already gapping up at Wednesday’s open.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s open gapped up for a change, instead of gapping down like the prior three consecutive sessions. The pattern was similar otherwise, reversing the gap back into the prior session’s range. But that meant a post-open dip back into negative territory. At least the open’s gap up was above all prior highs, creating an attraction that will try to attract price back up to it, presumably to resume and extend the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Summers removed himself from consideration for replacing Bernanke, sending shock waves through the system. Seemingly most removed from the turmoil’s influence is Natural Gas, which is forming an interesting setup. Three consecutive sessions have now recovered to fresh highs despite gapping down.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down attacked prior lows down to 81.13, including August’s pivotal low. At least a temporary probe of fresh lows is in-play — perhaps only intraday — without there first being two consecutive higher closes back above 81.45.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Room for noise above the 1.3333 bounce limit included 1.3380, which was tested Sunday night on the Larry Summers news.  The balance of the session drifted back down to 1.3340, which is not a sell signal, but does define an area that will launch the next substantial leg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A probe above the 1321.00 buy signal after Friday’s close extended eventually up to 1335.00 before being retraced entirely back down to 1307.00-1310.00 into Monday’s open. An intraday bounce was retraced back down to 1317.00 and lower, still failing to reverse momentum up.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s post-close rally from under 21.80 eventually extended up to 22.40 but was retraced entirely into Monday’s open. An intraday bounce was also retraced, leaving open the door to one more lower close.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Chipping away at 130-00 resistance after Friday’s open back above 129-14 had begun suggesting a sizable probe higher was possible. The Larry Summers news did trigger a gap up that extended Monday morning to 131-12. It was retraced entirely back down into negative territory at 129-27, leaving open the door to resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday morning’s gap down extended to 106.10 before bouncing. Last week’s rally up to its 108.75 target is still being consolidated, and still needs to hold tests of 106.75 support to maintain the recovery potential.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down and recovery to fresh highs was the third consecutive session to form this pattern. Extending sharply higher Tuesday is likely so long as 3.62 support is not broken.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s extended drop Friday answered the question whether a one-day drop was sufficient to neutralize the selling pressure of the two-day consolidation that had preceded Thursday’s drop. The answer was, “no.” Is two days sufficient?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Two consecutive tests of the 81.45 pullback limit needed to rally immediately Friday to avoid extending into another downleg. Friday’s gap up was retraced enough to fill the gap back to Thursday’s close, and then recovered back to the open’s highs. The balance of the session drifted back down to 81.45. The action isn’t definitive for reversing momentum up, but at least it confirms this level’s relevance, and the diminishing selling pressure.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s reaction down from recently attacking the 1.3333 bounce limit did not extend, but it did signal that resuming the rally would require new sponsorship.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The drop extended to test 1304.50, testing August’s original buy signal. Closing back above 1321.00 would trigger a bounce targeting 1341.00. Extending any lower would target 1288.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s fresh lows down to 21.42 were recovered back up to 21.70. Closing under 22.00 suggested the decline was extending, with potential into the teens. But, for now, at least one more lower close is likely.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday night’s probe under 129-14 was already recovered by Friday’s open, and the recovery extended intraday to retest 130-00 resistance. Closing almost any higher could trigger a rally well into the week.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s drop back to 107.25 was appropriate for having fulfilled the 108.75 bounce objective Thursday without putting into play any higher objective. The lowest new buy signal is now 108.75, although it would be suspicious to trigger Monday.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An opening dip Friday was recovered and reversed into positive territory, testing a fresh high at 3.69. Fresh highs on a Friday in this market tend to extend at the week’s start. Not extending higher Monday would be bearish.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s other shoe dropped Thursday. Wednesday’s deceptive calm was followed by the proverbial storm. Is a one day drop  from the two-day consolidation — no matter how large the drop — really enough to neutralize selling pressure?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s fresh low still recovered back above 81.45 to suggest the drop’s momentum is waning.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Early weakness Thursday was recovered intraday to retest Wednesday’s high, attacking the 1.3333 bounce limit again. Wednesday’s RSIs diverged negatively, so any further delay in resuming the rally would be bearish.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging continued Wednesday instead of recovering, making the decline likelier to resume to its 1341.00 “lower prior highs.” Which it did overnight, and then extended to 1325.60 intraday Thursday. Closing back above 1337.50 would start to signal the drop had ended. Back above 1341.00 and 1344.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The drop was likely to resume if Thursday had not triggered a buy signal, but Thursday’s open was already plunging. The next lower target at 22.10 was tested down to 22.00. Closing any lower Friday — whether a little or a lot — would signal that the leg was extending.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday quickly fulfilled the potential to probe 130-00 before resuming the decline. The balance of the session ranged around it. Closing back under 129-14 would now signal a move underway to new lows, potentially targeting 127-04.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Room for improving further up to 108.75 was fulfilled early Thursday, testing it up to 109.25 before reversing to close back under 108.75. Extending any higher should be at a much steeper slope, or else the bounce has ended.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s bullish reaction to the EIA report recovered initial weakness to rally sharply and trigger the 3.61 buy signal by a nickel. A second consecutive higher close Friday is required to confirm a new rally leg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s behavior Wednesday felt like the market was waiting for another shoe to drop. Ranging narrowly at the bottom of a steep, deep plunge isn’t usually the sign of strength it pretends to be.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s opening blip-up did not gain traction, allowing Wednesday to extend the drop and test 81.45 support. Lower lows Thursday should recover to close positive if a recovery can get underway anytime soon.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s high attacked 1.3333, which can be probed up to 1.3380 before ending the corrective bounce. RSIs did diverge negatively into Wednesday’s rally, so almost hesitation to extend the rally would be vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight probed recent lows down to 1356.00. But Wednesday’s intraday action only ranged narrowly around unchanged. The 1377.00 buy signal was not challenged.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging did not reject the recent drop, which is much likelier to resume if the 23.55 buy signal is not triggered by Thursday’s close.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging between 128-20/129-14 Wednesday probably only delayed the expected drop to new lows. But it does not prevent probing to also test 130-00 first.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Already having overly discounted the Syrian peace prospects, Tuesday night’s speech did not prevent price firming Wednesday, still having potential for extending  up to 108.75.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip back to recent lows was retraced entirely to retest 3.61 resistance. Thursday’s EIA reaction should produce uptrending if an upleg is at all likely prior to resuming the decline.

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