Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight More wild gyration from Precious Metals and Energies, but still only limited action among Currencies. Did that undermine Gold’s recovery attempt Tuesday? If so, then that suggests Metals and Energies are about to reverse back up.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap up only ranged sideways through the balance of the day. “Ineffectual optimism” was avoided only because the afternoon did not probe and reject a fresh high. Now the optimal bottom would form from a probe under Thursday’s 80.25 low recovering back above Tuesday’s 80.75 high.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down probed Monday’s low momentarily, but spent the balance of the session ranging around it negative territory. This was not quite “ineffectual pessimism,” but a retest of 1.3580 remains likely anyway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday night’s slide rejected Tuesday’s close above 1325.00, and prevented closing above 1330.50 to confirm momentum reversing up. Instead, closing back at 1313.00 stopped just short of signaling momentum was reversing down. Two consecutive closes above 1325.00 would still be bullish. There is otherwise potential for extending to new lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday extended down slightly, but recovered back to opening levels. Closing above 21.88-21.95 would start to signal momentum reversing up, but there is otherwise no buy signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s testing of 132-00 resistance was extended overnight to produce a gap up Tuesday, which extended higher intraday to 133-04. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a new rally leg underway. Closing back under 132-22 would signal a false breakout was reversing back down..

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Breaking under Tuesday’s fresh low testing 102.30 would next target 99.10. Closing back above 105.00 and 105.85 would signal the decline had ended, putting into play new highs above 109.60.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s close under recent lows closed the door to any buy signal. Tuesday’s shar drop prevents a buy signal from triggering Wednesday, too, but allows one to begin forming.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold extended down Monday relatively more aggressively than Silver. And Gold’s extension down was essentially ignored by Currencies. Its reaction up from testing last week’s buy signals is obligatory. Extending higher Tuesday would be bullish.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Eerily narrow ranging Monday all but ignored volatility in Precious Metals and Energies. There is no new signal.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Narrow ranging Monday was no longer “ineffectual optimism” that had inhibited a sell-off Friday. The hesitation under 1.3580 without actually reversing down does suggest it will at least be tested. No sell-off before then would be credible.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight selling tested 1321.00 down to 1313.00, which were both of last week’s buy signals. Just holding a test of 1321.00 suggests that sellers have been absorbed. Closing back above 1325.00 signals momentum is probably reversing up, although closing above 1330.50 Tuesday is needed to confirm.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down immediately filled the 22.70 gap and had little difficulty recovering to probe positive territory. Closing positive Tuesday would signal that the drop had ended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was recovered back into positive territory, but perhaps only as a flight-to-safety while stocks slid. Their recovery intraday didn’t help, as 132-00 was still being tested through the afternoon.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The drop extended Monday and probed under its interim to suggest the recent slide from retesting 107.85 (basis Nov, 108.75 basis Oct) wasn’t just noise within the range. There is no active signal

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having failed to rally yet from multiple tests of support, Monday’s delay in extending higher was already bearish, but extending down to fresh lows testing 3.60 only confirmed. There is no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Silver had begun rallying sharply before Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Their rallies extended sharply into the following morning. But no net improvement Thursday made them vulnerable. And Friday reclaimed almost all of Wednesday’s gains.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging in slightly positive territory ended the week. No new signal is offered, but closing above Monday’s high after probing under Thursday’s low would trigger a rally.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s narrow ranging offered no new signals, except the “ineffectual optimism” that prevented a deeper, healthier dip that could have refueled buyers to help extend the rally.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday failed to extend the FOMC rally, opening the door to a correction back down to 1341.00. It was tested Friday down to 1327.20, and not recovered by the close. Recovering it immediately Monday is probably the only way to resume the rally without first testing 1321.00, whose break would target new lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down held 22.75 as resistance and extended another dollar lower, testing “lower prior highs” that had preceded the FOMC news. But for probing any lower intraday, Monday should resume the rally to avoid retesting its lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday morning’s test of 131-02 was resolved up to attack 132-00. A second consecutive higher close on Monday would launch a new rally leg. But closing back under 131-02 would still signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down from retesting 108.75 fell back under 105.00 Friday, which is too deep for a rally leg that should have been ready to extend higher This doesn’t necessarily turn the pattern bearish, but a close back above 106.75 is the minimum requirement to become bullish.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh low down to 3.65 did not extend down, but was not recovered back above 3.71. The pattern cannot tolerate much delay past Monday’s open to launch a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight What FOMC giveth, the hangover taketh away… as was the case with Crude Oil. Its 2-day, $4 rally revisited the last bounce’s target, all but requiring a new rally leg. But buyers were tired and in need of a rest.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows overnight down to 80.15 were not tested intraday, which bounced to 80.55. Retesting the overnight low before extending any higher would be likely to form a bottom. Otherwise, extending any higher would target 81.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fresh highs overnight essentially tested the next higher resistance at 1.3580. A pullback has room down to 1.3485 before starting to signal a more substantial drop underway targeting 1.3333.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1363.00 target had been met soon after the 1341.00 target, further pressuring the rally’s momentum. The next higher resistance at 1377.00-1381.00 is likely to hold if tested prior to at least a modest corrective pullback, preferably a pullback all the way back down to 1341.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s recovery extended higher after the FOMC news, attacking the 23.55 resistance. Its test is likely so long as 23.00 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing above 132-00 created room for a pullback down to 131-10 while keeping alive potential that a bottom has been forming. The pullback’s test must resolve up into the weekend, or else breaking back under 131-02 would signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The recovery extended higher Wednesday’s night to probe above 108.75 resistance. Although its test reacted down to test 106.75 intraday Thursday, retesting 108.75 was probably more for chipping away at resistance than for refueling sellers.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh high up to 3.82 on the EIA report were reversed down sharply intraday to 3.68. Wednesday’s low held, but not by enough for confidence in resuming the rally. Any lower low would reverse momentum down.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Questions have been raised about Gold rallying sharply from new lows intraday ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news. But the pattern Tuesday expected almost exactly that, probing new lows intraday, and rejecting them aggressively by the close. The timing is curious, but the pattern followed its price prediction perfectly.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
FOMC news drove price down sharply from recently trying to hold its 81.45 pullback limit.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Two days of testing the 1.3333 pullback limit probably helped the dip to resolve up sharply in reaction to FOMC, although breaking any lower would have been equally vulnerable to sliding.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The requirement to probe fresh lows before rallying was fulfilled Wednesday morning down to 1291.50. A rally into the FOMC statement was attacking the 1321.00 buy signal to within $3, and then extended sharply up to 1350.50. Since that all followed Wednesday’s close, closing Thursday above 1341.00 would confirm momentum has reversed up, next targeting 1363.00 and potentially 1377.00-1381.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday morning’s slide to fresh lows at 21.22 fulfilled the first stage of the Complex Descending Triangle that had formed. An immediate reaction up through its 22.40 high fulfilled the pattern’s second stage. Pullbacks should hold 22.10 as support and produce a second consecutive higher close Thursday if momentum has reversed up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday morning’s weakness down to 129-20 was retraced back above 130-00, for the FOMC news to trigger a surge through 132-00. Pullbacks should now hold 131-02 if a bottom has formed.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s dip to 105.00 required an immediate recovery back above 106.75, which was accomplished before FOMC news extended the recovery through 108.25. A second consecutive higher close — which is not at all assured in this pattern — would put into play fresh highs well above 110.65 if not also above 112.25.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s drop to 3.67 recovered only enough to attack 3.72, which was not enough to reinstate the rally’s momentum. As defensive posturing ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, the action would be bullish. But the rally can’t tolerate a lower low at this stage.

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