Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s plunge Tuesday confirms its recent rally was only a temporary correction. That doesn’t mean the prior low’s retest will be immediate. Meanwhile, Natty Gas saw Monday’s gap down go nowhere, and bounced above Friday’s high.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’ night’s drop to fresh lows under 80.05-80.10 was retraced back above prior lows before Tuesday’s open. That suggests a low is forming, although not necessarily that momentum is yet reversing up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Overnight testing of the 1.3580 objective was reversed back into the range before Tuesday’s open. Having neutralized the outstanding objective above without closing above it, topping is likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Failing to recover 1335.00-1341.00 before falling to 1321.00 made the drop likelier to extend down, but there was no expectation for it being so dramatic that Tuesday would fall $45 and test 1282.50. No immediate recovery is likely, and bounces holding 1306.00 and 1321.00 are likely to resolve down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Repeatedly testing 21.88-21.95 resistance made at least an obligatory fresh high likely, but perhaps it was sympathy with Gold’s plunge Tuesday that took Silver sharply lower to fresh lows attacking 20.60 support. No buy signal can be considered here.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying stocks Tuesday kept the long bond out of the spotlight and ranging slightly lower to test the 132-22 pullback limit, with still at least one more fresh high close all but required.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Bouncing back to 102.30 nevertheless returned back to Monday’s 101.05 low, still targeting 99.10 so long as 102.95 isn’t recovered.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s detour proved temporary as Tuesday’s open gapped up and extended higher to test 3.65. The pattern now targets 3.71-3.75 so long as 3.59 holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The shutdown countdown wasn’t alone in influencing Monday’s markets. But it’s interesting how little influence that story had, compared to other influences. Gold may be the best example, fluctuating widely in reaction to a totally unassociated story.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Sunday night’s initial strength was barely perceptible, and in eventually resolved down to fresh lows. A second consecutive lower close Monday was too borderline to call, but any strength from fresh lows at 80.05-80.10 would be credible for reversing up sharply.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Despite Sunday night’s open breaking lower, price firmed into Monday’s open. Prior highs weren’t tested, let alone fresh highs at 1.3580 which would be likely before a reliable downleg can begin.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s probing above 1341.00 formed an Ascending Triangle that broke lower intraday on rumors of planned liquidation. Attacking the range’s 1321.00 lower-end reacted back up to 1335.00. Closing any higher would be likely also to break above 1341.00. Otherwise, reacting down from 1335.00 to retest 1321.00 would be likelier to break through the range’s lower-end.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another early test of 21.88-21.95 was unable to break higher Monday. At least some fresh probe attacking 23.00 is becoming likelier.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only slightly higher highs Sunday night accompanied the stock market’s gap down, which isn’t much of a “flight-to-safety.” The premium had disappeared entirely by Monday’s open, and the session ranged flat-to-lower. At least one more new high close remains likely.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Repeatedly chipping away at 102.30 support became all but required to extend the drop to 99.10. Breaking lower to 101.05 was retraced to attack 102.30 as resistance, which can be probed up to 102.95 before suggesting a deeper break lower may be avoided.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down couldn’t be confused with initial strength, so there was no likelihood for extending higher. But the gap down was almost all recovered, and initial strength Tuesday would again be credible for becoming  a bigger corrective rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natty Gas’ two consecutive breakout closes required at least one more lower close eventually. Fulfilling it before Thursday’s wide-ranging session allowed its price action to be considered as accumulative. Friday’s action can also be considered accumulative. None of which is a buy signal, not without actually breaking higher.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s gap up created potential for trending sharply higher Friday, if only the open were rallying at all. The open gapped down, keeping in-play the attraction to retest recent lows.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Potential to fulfill a probe of fresh highs up to 1.3580 was kept alive Friday when the open gapped up and away from Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s early morning surge back up to and through Wednesday’s highs held its test of 1341.00 resistance. Closing above it and then a second higher confirming close are still needed to signal the 1321.00-1341.00 range has broken out.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up to 22.15 quickly reversed down from retesting Thursday’s opening peak, and the balance of the session ranged narrowly just under the 21.88-21.95 buy signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s shallow dip easily held the 132-22 pullback limit. Friday’s recovery tested Wednesday’s high still needing to produce at least one more higher close to fulfill the pattern’s minimum requirement.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s extra dip back to 102.35 already made a break lower likely. Friday’s extra bounce attacking 104.00 was retraced back to 102.35, still likelier to extend down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having already produced a third lower close, Thursday’s recovery from its EIA reaction left only one piece of “unfinished business below” at the open’s gap down. Friday’s own gap down immediately fulfilled it, and recovered back into positive territory. Any initial strength above 3.59 Monday would target 3.71-3.75.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Can Crude Oil avoid breaking lower? Can Gold avoid breaking lower? The Dollar seems to be ready to break one way or the other, so the answers should be obvious by Friday afternoon.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s near “ineffectual optimism” was retested Thursday, despite the interim session Wednesday having gapped down. Extending higher Friday would essentially end the potential for a fresh low prior to a larger upleg getting underway, especially if extending up were aggressive.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s near “ineffectual pessimism” was retested Thursday, despite the interim session Wednesday having gapped up. Extending lower Friday would essentially end the potential for a fresh high prior to a deeper downleg getting underway, especially if extending down were aggressive.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s attack on 1341.00 was all but rejected Thursday by trending down to test 1321.00 support. The support test held, but breaking under it Friday and confirmed under 1313.00 would signal a new downleg underway. Closing above 1341.00 would still put into play a retest of prior highs.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s narrow ranging again held 21.88-21.95 resistance to prevent a new upleg from getting underway, keeping alive the risk of resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s shallow gap down and narrow sideways ranging held above the 132-22 pullback limit, keeping alive the pattern’s requirement for at least one more higher close.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another test of 102.30 support overnight produced an intraday bounce, which failed as the afternoon attacked support again. That may be one swing too many while waiting for a rally to avoid breaking lower to 99.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The requirement for at least one more lower close was fulfilled easily Thursday after the morning’s EIA report triggered a steep slide to fresh lows at 3.40. There is no new parameter.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Two days of volatile Gold action didn’t make a third volatile session any more predictive. So, Wednesday’s Gold rally needs more than any other session to be confirmed on Thursday. If it’s not, then a much larger resolution down should not be far behind.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap down didn’t trend down, but still suggests that the recent bounce didn’t gain traction for extending higher into a recovery.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Wednesday keeps alive the potential for retesting recent highs up to 1.3580 before any durable downleg could gain traction.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above 1313.00 Tuesday had avoided signaling momentum reversed down. Rallying to within $2 of 1341.00 Wednesday doesn’t yet signal momentum reversing up. Absent a second consecutive higher close Thursday, a corrective bounce will have likely ended, with a close back under 1321.00 signaling a new downleg underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above 21.88-21.95 would have signaled a new upleg underway. It was only tested, but a second consecutive higher close Thursday would still confirm momentum had reversed up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Price firmed to fresh highs above 133-10 Wednesday, perhaps as a flight-to-safety amid stock market weakness. Regardless of its catalyst, the second consecutive higher close suggests a third higher close is due. The recovery can extend higher so long as pullbacks now hold 132-22 as support.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A small bounce Wednesday never became a rally, and it was retraced back to Tuesday’s 102.30 support, whose break would next target 99.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s sharp slide did not extend lower Wednesday, although it having been a second consecutive lower close does suggest a third fresh low close will precede any recovery potential.

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