Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas confirmed a breakout close. Could it develop into a new rally leg?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s inside day suggested the bounce wouldn’t extend, but Tuesday’s weakness wasn’t aggressive enough for it to qualify as a retest of prior lows.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s inside day suggested the reaction down from last week’s highs wouldn’t extend before retesting or attacking prior highs. Tuesday’s flat-to-higher ranging stopped short of fulfilling any part of the high’s retest.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The reaction down from Monday’s bounce was initially forcible, but that was recovered to range narrowly around unchanged. A close under 1321.00 is still the minimum requirement to signal momentum reversing back down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down was recovered to retest Monday’s high, but did not produce a second consecutive higher confirming close that would have confirmed a breakout underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s open gapped down to attack the 132-22 pullback limit, whose test has become increasingly likely — even in the most bullish scenario — for as much time as has been spent hovering above it without actually improving. Positive territory was nonetheless recovered, but not yet to produce the outstanding fresh high close.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s bounce from under 102.30 attacked 104.00 resistance, but didn’t begin recovering it to suggest momentum reversing up, or react down from it sufficiently to trigger a new downleg.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up extended higher to confirm Monday’s breakout. Now a third higher close is required — albeit not necessarily consecutive — before any reversal down can gain traction. The likely next objective is 3.80, and closing above 3.83 would signal a much bigger rally leg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Is Crude Oil ready to roll over? Monday’s attempt was cut short, but only so that an attraction above could be neutralized. That action often precedes a serious trending attempt.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s inside day and narrow ranging around 80.05-80.10 doesn’t confirm the recent bounce has gained any durable traction. A dip to 79.35-79.75 should precede a reliable recovery leg at this stage.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s inside day did not confirm Friday’s break lower, which otherwise held the expected test of “lower prior highs.” Tuesday should fulfill or begin fulfilling that pattern’s subsequent expectations for attacking recent highs at 1.3625 or up to 1.3670.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s probe above the 1306.00-1321.00 range’s upper-end fulfilled expectations that resistance had been chipped away enough for an obligatory probe above it. But it has stretched the rubber band to where it will either break higher with a second consecutive higher close Tuesday, or else react down sharply back to and through 1306.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Repeatedly chipping away at 21.88-21.95 resistance was finally rewarded by Monday’s gap up through it that extended higher intraday to attack 22.50. The resolution to testing 21.88-21.95 as support would dictate the next substantial trend.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up slightly Monday keeps alive the pattern’s requirement for at least one more fresh high close, especially so long as 132-22 continues holding as support.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s gap down probed under 102.30 (and under 102.00) was retraced enough to fill the gap back to Friday’s 103.68 close. Having neutralized its attraction above, closing under 102.30 would be likely to extend down without delay to fulfill the  99.10 target.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Last Tuesday’s gap up and extension through 3.59 was the pattern’s last buy signal. It wasn’t confirmed the following day, and now the interim dip has recovered to gap up Monday and extend through 3.59 again. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday is still needed for confirmation.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold ranged widely between either end of its range, but didn’t extend its recovery into the weekend. That doesn’t prevent attempting to extend higher Monday, but that may have been the last chance to launch any bigger rally before resuming the decline.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s second consecutive lower close had confirmed Wednesday’s break. Gapping up Friday above Thursday’s high is and not trading intraday under Wednesday’s lows now takes precedence. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a bigger rally underway. I’m a little suspicious, but the confirmation would get every benefit of the doubt for reversing momentum up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s second consecutive higher close had confirmed Wednesday’s break. Gapping down Friday under Thursday’s low is and not trading intraday above Wednesday’s highs now takes precedence. A second consecutive lower  close Monday would confirm a bigger decline underway. I’m a little suspicious, but the confirmation would get every benefit of the doubt for reversing momentum down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday opened essentially unchanged around 1316.00-1318.00 after recovering from a dip to 1308.00. A blip-up to 1326.00 was reversed immediately to retest 1306.00. The afternoon ranged sideways, not triggering a break beyond either end of 1306.00-1321.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Opening strength Friday probed the 21.88-21.95 resistance, but still avoided triggering it as the balance of the session ranged sideways narrowly.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s flat-to-lower ranging once again held the 132-22 pullback limit, with at least one more new high still outstanding.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Bouncing between 102.95-104.00 persisted Friday, yet to resume either the rally or the downleg.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow ranging within Thursday’s range continued to consolidate the two prior sessions’ drop.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold really has only one opportunity to reverse the trend up before the weekend, which essentially means this may be its last opportunity before mid-week. Trending down into the weekend would be more credible for resuming the decline.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Another, deeper test of the probes under 80.05-80.10 support held through the close, and a second consecutive lower close has confirmed at least one more new low close is due.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Retesting the rally’s 1.3580 objective, again, produced a second consecutive higher close that confirmed the breakout, now requiring at least one more new high close, not necessarily consecutive.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s rally back to 1321.00 resistance required closing back under 1306.00 to signal momentum had reversed down. It was retested Thursday morning after an overnight dip tested 1306.00 as support, and its resistance held.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Yet another test of 21.88-21.95 resistance pushed back before extending higher to at least attack 23.00. The afternoon’s recovery stopped just short of 21.88, potentially well-placed pessimism that would make early strength credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks encouraged a flight-to-quality that helped the long-bond to retest Wednesday’s 133-29 high Thursday morning, still needing at least one more fresh high close before sellers could begin gaining traction.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s bounce through the 102.95 bounce limit up to 104.00 did not extend higher Thursday, and drifted back to 102.95. Closing under 102.30 would reinstate fresh lows targeting 99.10.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reaction down extended down further Thursday. No relevant support has been broken, so there is no requirement for any lower low before a credible rally can begin.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies probed fresh extremes Wednesday, probing Monday’s extremes. Those tests were ongoing Wednesday afternoon, so either they will hold their tests, or else breakout to extend their recent trends.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday night’s test of 80.05-80.10 had been recovered before Tuesday morning. Fresh lows down to retested it Tuesday night. It was still being tested Wednesday afternoon, but a second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm its breakout.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday night’s test of 1.3580 had been rejected before Tuesday morning. Fresh highs up to retested it Tuesday night. It was still being tested Wednesday afternoon, but a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm its breakout.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
All available room for a corrective bounce up to 1321.00 was retraced Wednesday morning. A close back under 1306.00 is needed to resume the decline. There is no buy signal.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Resistance at 21.99-21.95 was retraced Wednesday morning, making its fourth test in a week. At least an obligatory fresh high attacking 23.00 was likely before Tuesday’s sudden plunge, and now an attack on 23.00 is again likely.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having avoided the 132-22 pullback limit with at least one more new high close outstanding, Wednesday finally probed prior highs up to 133-29. But dipping back under prior highs did not recover, still leaving fresh highs in-play.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s dip back to Monday’s 101.05 low was recovered back up to 102.30 Wednesday and through it to test the 102.95 bounce limit. Rather than hold it as resistance to keep alive potential for the decline to resume, the bounce extended to retest 104.00 resistance. There is no buy signal, at least not yet, and back under 102.30 would reinstate the 99.10 target.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up was followed by another gap down Wednesday. There was no second consecutive higher close, so there is no upside attraction left outstanding. A close back above 3.59 is needed to trigger another rally effort.

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