Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil returned to recent lows Tuesday, and the visit should be brief as the interim bounce was already an unnecessary delay to extending the decline. If the decline isn’t extending, if the interim bounce wasn’t a detour, then a bottom must be forming.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
A rally back up to 80.80 Tuesday moved further away from the 80.05-80.10 support test that would form a more durable bottom. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would get a benefit of the doubt for reversing momentum up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday night’s drop behaved like the downleg that was expected after first retesting recent highs. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would suggest no more retest of the highs is needed.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s open gapped under 1269.00 as was likely after Monday’s rally closed back under 1278.00. Despite extending down to 1251.00, the drop was recovered back up to 1275.00, still preventing buyers from gaining traction. Extending higher after the close to test 1285.00 must be unwound overnight to maintain the attraction to 1241.00-1245.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s distributive pattern was fulfilled by Monday night’s plunge to fresh lows testing 20.50. The balance of the session recovered back to Friday’s 21.22 close.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A little firming in celebration of Monday’s holiday having ended was not maintained, and price remain depressed throughout Tuesday, ranging around 132-00. A breakout was narrowly avoided, but could still be triggered by initial weakness Wednesday.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Recent lows were attacked Tuesday attacking 101.00. Having produced a bounce on its last test, there is no bearish reason to further delay extending down to the 99.10 target.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight strength back up to Monday’s 3.85 high did not extend higher intraday Tuesday. A fresh high close Wednesday — preferably the product of an aggressive rally — is all but required to maintain the rally’s momentum

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long-bond is starting to lose patience with the peace talks.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Sunday night’s gap down extended into Monday’s open, but the session mostly only ranged around Friday’s lows. A little bit lower would fulfill the retest of 80.05-80.10.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s gap up didn’t get very far for very long before beginning to range around Friday’s high through the balance of the day. But there is no need to delay a retest of recent highs, which the pattern still depends upon to form a more durable top.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally through Friday’s closing test of 1269.00 eventually tested 1291.50 before reversing back down under 1277.50. Now extending back under 1269.00 without much delay would allow the decline to resume without much more of a detour higher.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s post-open ranging had formed a Pennant likely to resolve down. That certainly won’t be immediate, with Monday’s gap up probing above 21.50. But a dip back down to 21.25 should be only a formality to breaking under 21.25 and extending down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The cash market was closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, and futures initially ranged narrowly around the pattern’s 132-22 pullback limit, but then trended down to a fresh low at 131-28. Regardless of the headlines, the pattern still requires one more new high close before a pullback would be entirely credible for extending into a durable downleg.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows were once again retraced Monday, testing the 102.35 bounce limit by 25-30 cents. The weekend wasn’t exited in decline, so any further delay in extending down to fresh lows would start to be viewed as bullish.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday immediately challenged 3.83, whose recovery would put the rally in a whole new class with substantially higher objectives. Its reaction down filled the gap back to Friday’s close, and spent the afternoon testing 3.83 as resistance.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s plunge Friday still doesn’t fulfill the three-day old sell signal, but it’s a start.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s dip launched a choppy sideways session, which nevertheless closed negative to maintain the outstanding attraction to test 80.05-80.10 before a more substantial rally could begin.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday gapped up and then only ranged sideways, but still suggests a retest of recent highs is needed before beginning a durable decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap fulfilled the pattern’s appropriate timing, having held the decline’s 1311.00-1312.00 bounce limit Thursday. The post-open plunge was unnecessarily deep, but its momentum remains intact and targeting 1241.00-1245.00 so long as bounces now hold 1269.00 as resistance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
21.88-21.95 support gave way to sharply lower lows Thursday night and more so into Friday morning. The open’s probe under 21.00 was consolidated back to 21.25 through the afternoon, forming a Pennant pattern that should break or resolve down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up extended to 133-15 before reacting back down to the 132-22 pullback limit that Thursday’s drop had managed to recover. The pattern remains intact, but Friday’s attempt should be repeated more successfully by Wednesday.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s uncomfortable test of the 102.95 bounce limit resolved down quickly to fresh lows overnight that extended to touch 100.60. That still did not prevent another corrective bounce testing 102.00, but the break does require resolving down coming out of the weekend.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The shallow gap back to Wednesday’s close was filled by Friday’s backing-and-filling, so there is no reason to further delay the rally from extending higher Monday or Tuesday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight After sliding sharply overnight through Wednesday’s open, Gold began backing-and-filling through Thursday morning. The afternoon’s dip back down toward Wednesday’s lows puts the metal in a make-or-break situation.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Sideways ranging Thursday held resistance, but left outstanding at least a dip to test 80.05-80.10 before a more substantial rally could begin.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s flat-to-higher ranging once again suggests that a durable decline won’t extend down without first attacking or testing recent highs.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ranging sideways Thursday held the 1311.00-1312.00 bounce limit, and closed under 1306.00 to confirm Wednesday’s close under 1321.00 as reversing the trend down. At least one further lower close is required, although not necessarily consecutive.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s spike up was retraced quickly to spend most of the session ranging narrowly back at 21.88-21.95 support.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The extended narrow ranging above the 132-22 pullback limit finally broke lower. Or, tried breaking lower. The premise has been that a fresh low would stretch the rubber band for a slingshot effect to launch the pattern’s outstanding new high close. But now a second consecutive lower close must be avoided Friday to prevent sellers from gaining traction. Recovering the intraday drop to 132-00 back up to 132-22 does position the market nicely for a rally into the weekend.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s bounce back above 102.95 immediately robbed the drop of any traction that Wednesday’s sellers had gained. The late-afternoon ranging around 102.95 leaves the door open to breaking back under 102.30 Friday to resume the decline.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s delay did prove to be only noise, as the confirmed breakout was fulfilled Thursday by gapping up to fresh highs and testing the likely 3.80 target. While that fulfills the setup’s minimum requirement, the rally’s momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 3.68 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil and Natural Gas have traded inversely at key turning points this year. That could be very good for Natty Gas on Thursday. And very bad for Crude.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging this week had undermined last Friday’s recovery effort, suggesting a little more time would be spent bottoming before a rally could begin. That didn’t prevent gapping up to range around 80.50-80.60 Wednesday. But the gap’s origin still suggests a bottom hasn’t yet completed, making another dip to 80.05-80.10 likely.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday and Tuesday’s narrow ranging had kept alive potential for attacking or retesting recent highs before completing a top and extending down. So, extending down sharply Wednesday anyway should be recovered abruptly. Back above 1.3565 would signal the pullback had ended.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The rejection of 1321.00 resistance was completed Wednesday by gapping down and extending sharply lower to test 1294.60. Still, 1306.00 support was not broken cleanly. The resolution down remains likely so long as 1311.00 holds as resistance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing above 21.88-21.95 had held 22.50 for a second consecutive session, making a reaction down Wednesday easier. But 21.88-21.95 held, and back above 22.15-22.25 should extend to fresh highs attacking 23.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday morning’s market drop didn’t have any impact on the long-bond, which ranged narrowly while awaiting the afternoon’s auction. The lowest level in a week was tested, but only barely lower, and still several ticks from even touching the 132-22 pullback limit.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Two days of testing 104.00 resistance without breaking higher wasn’t necessarily bearish, but it did resolve down sharply Wednesday by probing under 102.95 support to 101.18. Now 99.10 is in-play so long as 102.30 holds as resistance, and so long as Thursday confirms with a second consecutive lower close.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday wasn’t required to produce the third higher close now required by the confirmed breakout. The session’s narrow ranging was probably anxiousness ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. At least, that had better be its excuse, which would be proved by rallying sharply into the afternoon.

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