Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlights Natural Gas showed us Monday by gapping down sharply what can happen when one trend extends without refueling along the way. Meanwhile, the long bond has been dumping a lot of ballast lately. Interestingly, the influential Employment Situation report is approaching, and relevant support is being tested.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s ranging around 79.85 continued to prevent the downleg from resuming.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s test of the 1.3465-1.3475 objective held Monday, containing a very narrow intraday range. The pattern remains vulnerable to reversing down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Fresh lows down to 1651.00 at Monday’s open did not suggest Friday’s test of 1656.00 was holding. But the decline cannot afford to hesitate if it intends to extend down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The correction extended Monday to within 25 cents of its 30.50 objective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s opening 1-point drop pierced the 143-04 objective by 1 tick. Its reaction up should hold a test of 143-18 to maintain momentum next targeting 142-26.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping up Monday attacked prior highs just a dime higher at 96.90 before reacting back down into negative territory. Like the two prior sessions’ intraday dips, sellers did not gain traction. But buyers have yet to be rewarded for absorbing them.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s gap down attacked the 3.25 objective, which remains in-play so long as 3.37 isn’t recovered.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold extended lower without first correcting Thursday’s break. That’s a lot of  selling pressure to expend in so short a time. It does suggest this drop is only a temporary correction, but it makes the low’s retest more difficult.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap down to 79.85 support held, preventing a lower target from being put into play.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s breakout extended to its 1.3465-1.3475 objective Friday. The pattern is now vulnerable to reversing down. Not reversing down Monday morning under 1.3380 would put into play the next higher objective at 1.3560-1.3580.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The decline did not correct before extending down Friday. And the decline extended down by gapping again. This leaves sellers unrefueled as they test 1656.00 support, now vulnerable to testing 1675.00 resistance before resuming the decline to 1637.40.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s reaction down from attacking 32.50 extended Friday to 31.20, suggesting a deeper correction underway to at least 30.50.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday rewarded buyers that had absorbed the mid-week testing of 146-00/146-04 resistance. The overnight drop through 145-16 extended to and through its 144-16 objective to 144-02. The 142-26/143-04 objective is in-play so long as 144-16 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) After Thursday’s open rejected Wednesday’s late decline, a shallower dip Friday morning was recovered intraday. But only to unchanged, all but requiring Monday to extend the rally targeting 99.00 to avoid another downdraft.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s reaction down to 3.44 wasn’t recovered into the weekend, further suggesting that at least 3.37 would be tested, if not also 3.25.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude rejected Wednesday’s late drop by gapping up, but didn’t extend higher intraday. Gold rejected last week’s rally, but didn’t extend down intraday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Ranging between 79.85-80.20 Thursday offered no predictive value.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap up extended higher intraday to test the range’s 1.3380 upper-end. Despite probing above it, this doesn’t stretch the rubber band any more so than did Wednesday’s test of 1.3260 support. Fresh highs at 1.3465-1.3475 would be sufficient for any hesitation then to trigger a snap back down to and through prior lows.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Ongoing testing of 1685.00 support had already become a concern for not extending the rally. Its break Thursday down to 1664.00 consolidated under 1675.00, for which there is no bullish reason to be revisiting at this stage of the pattern. A bounce has room up to 1682.00-1683.00 before suggesting that Thursday’s drop was an anomaly. Otherwise, the outstanding 1637.40 open below is likely to be retested next.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s hesitation to touch the 32.50 target just pennies above prevented the rally from gaining new traction, and didn’t prevent a drop back down to 31.65 critical support. Closing any lower would trigger a deeper correction targeting 30.25-30.50.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Two days of topping around 146-00-146-04 tried for a third when Thursday’s open gapped up. Buts reaction down from 146-15 tested 145-09 and recovered back above the 145-16 pullback limit. The next leg down is underway so long as 146-00-146-04 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s late dive under the 95.70 pullback limit was rejected by Thursday’s gap up above 95.90. Closing above the open’s 96.40 would have confirmed that a somewhat straight shot up to 99.00 is underway. But the close was still testing 95.90. Back above 96.40 would still be bullish, but there is no lower buy signal.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Extended narrow ranging at resistance finally gave way for a pullback to test 3.44. Extending under 3.37 should also visit 3.25.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies all but confirmed its volatile narrow range. Crude Oil and Gold also confirmed a reluctance to rally against this backdrop. Crude dipped, while Gold remained stuck at relevant support. Crude’s dip could prove to be very bullish if at least its afternoon dip were rejected immediately at Thursday’s open.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s opening dip held 79.85 support for the second consecutive session. Its reaction up to 80.20 resistance avoided a negative close. There should be no further delay to extending higher to its 80.50 target, if that remains the pattern’s intent.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday morning’s plunge back to recent lows attacking 1.3260 support was retraced back to unchanged, robbing the pattern of its momentum to probe either end of the 1.3260-1.3380 range.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The inability to rally above 1685.00 would be bearish, except that several days of probing above it haven’t been rejected to launch a downleg. Back under 1675.00 would signal the rally had ended, putting into play 1637.40‘s retest. Otherwise, closing above 1693.50 should resume the rally, targeting 1720.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The 32.50 target was met to within 2 cents Wednesday. An intraday reaction down into negative territory was recovered to suggest the rally’s momentum remains intact, and next targeting 32.90 or even 33.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 31.65 as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Testing and holding 146-00 “higher prior lows” Tuesday and also filling the gap back to 146-04 didn’t prevent fresh highs Wednesday morning up to 146-12. But it it didn’t help to prevent a dip back into negative territory at 145-26. Now almost any further dip under 145-28 would be likely to extend down to fresh lows targeting 144-16.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite possibly having resumed the rally Tuesday, Wednesday’s gap down extended lower to probe the 95.70 pullback limit. Rejecting at least the afternoon’s portion of the dip by recovering immediately above 95.90 Thursday would all but assure extending higher without delay to test 99.00. There is otherwise room for dipping further to 94.65.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s ranging around 3.57 narrowed Wednesday, without extending higher. Last week’s hesitation at 3.44 was similar, and resolved up. This week’s similar setup should resolve down, targeting 3.20-3.25.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday night’s BOJ move shook up currencies, but only the Yen avoided settling back within its recent range. Can Gold and Crude Oil rally if the Dollar is stuck in a range?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Although 79.85 held as support Tuesday, failing to close above Friday’s high prevented signaling the rally would extend any higher.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The BOJ move triggered a volatile reaction that attacked both 1.3380 above and 1.3260 below. Neither was actually touched or even probed, suggesting that the next breakout attempt may be productive, but still fail and reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Narrowly touching the 1685.00 pullback limit resolved up in time for the rally to resume through Tuesday’s open, still suggesting that higher highs up to 1720.00 are in-play. But there is no bullish reason to further delay probing above 1700.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Holding the 31.65 pullback limit Friday kept alive momentum next targeting 32.50, which was attacked to within 15 cents Tuesday by fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday overcame a test of 145-16 support to reverse up into positive territory, testing higher prior lows” at 146-00 and filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s 146-04 close. Back under 145-16 would now qualify as a sell signal.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The rally targeting 99.00 might have resumed Tuesday with fresh highs being probed up to 96.40. The rally cannot afford to hesitate before printing more fresh highs, and back under 95.70 could trigger a deeper corrective slide.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The extended bounce’s lack of refueling didn’t prevent Tuesday from probing fresh highs up to 3.64. Its reaction down to 3.50 was recovered back into positive territory, ultimately failing to improve. Back under 3.44 would suggest the corrective dip targeting 3.25 was underway.

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