Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tuesday played “catch-up” as several patterns broke sharply. The Dollar, Bonds, Gold and Silver extended their declines, but still need to close lower Wednesday to confirm this is not the beginning of a bottoming effort.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” required the drop to extend lower without further delay to prevent buyers from gaining traction. Without a second consecutive lower close Wednesday, a corrective bounce targeting 79.75-79.90 would be underway.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” required the rally to extend higher without further delay to prevent sellers from gaining traction. The 1.3222 target put into play Friday was probed u to 1.3252. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would put into play 1.3640.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Having never recovered above 1703.60, the downleg’s momentum remained intact. Nevertheless, extending down sharply Tuesday to 1662.00 without first testing 1703.60 resistance does suggest the probe of new lows is capitulation. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would instead confirm the new downleg, next targeting 1647.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The trend remained down without recovering 32.25-32.60, which was exploited by Tuesday’s plunge to 31.40. Now the drop’s momentum remains intact and next targeting 30.90 unless 32.15 were recovered.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The trend’s 147-00 target being tested at Monday’s close gave way easily Tuesday to 145-19. The drop from Friday’s 148-19 corrective bounce now measures 61.8% of the prior downleg from 150-02. So long as this low were to hold, a corrective bounce up to 147-00/147-14 is likely.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The recovery back up to prior highs has held up long enough to expect at least an obligatory fresh high, even if only to fill the gap outstanding just above. Closing above 88.30 would suggest that more than a corrective bounce is underway. Otherwise, a close under 86.50 would again be credible for triggering the next downleg targeting the 82.00 area.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s gap up ranged above Friday and Monday’s highs, but never really extended up as would be expected of a breakout.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s plunge Monday back to last week’s lows proves its interim bounce was sponsored by weak hands. The attraction to nearby fresh lows must be fulfilled and rejected quickly to avoid a deeper prolonged decline.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap down  and probe of fresh multi-session lows, spending the entire session in negative territory, was pessimism. Not closing under Friday’s 79.60 prior lows is “ineffectual pessimism.” The decline must extend lower without delay Tuesday, or else it is bottoming.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s gap up and probe of fresh multi-session highs, spending the entire session in positive territory, was optimism. Not closing above Friday’s 1.3714 prior highs is “ineffectual optimism.” The rally must extend higher without delay Tuesday, or else it is peaking.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s overnight attempt at resuming the decline failed for not first bouncing temporarily above Thursday’s 1703.60 high. That’s still possible, but no longer assured of failing.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s fresh lows attacking 32.00 reacted up only to test Thursday and Friday’s ~32.25 prior lows as resistance. The trend remains down unless 32.60 were recovered through the close.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s recovery had formed a weak base that doomed Friday’s 148-19 higher highs to failure. Mondays deep decline back to last week’s 147-09 lows resumed the decline targeting 147-00.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Last week’s failed attempts at launching a downleg under 86.50 were punished by returning to the 87.65 prior high. Back under 86.50 would again target fresh lows.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s modest gap up ranged very narrowly around Monday’s 3.36 highs. The pattern can be exploited to launch a durable rally, but probably only without any further delay past Tuesday’s open.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Remember how Silver had been outperforming Gold through the latest dip and its recovery? Now, not so much. Silver’s fresh trend low on a Friday was accompanied by a second consecutive lower breakout close. Any recovery must still form a bottom.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s test of prior lows could still be rejected Monday by an immediate recovery back above 80.15. Otherwise, the trend is down so long as 79.85 holds test as resistance.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s slight higher high and its slight negative close were too shallow to signal momentum reversing down. But the formation did require a bearish resolution Friday, or else a bigger rally leg would be underway. An overnight probe above prior highs did reverse into negative territory, but only momentarily before reversing up sharply into the noon hour. A downleg would trigger under 1.3065, but the rally meanwhile is next targeting 1.3222 and potentially 1.3640.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s narrow ranging consolidated Thursday’s plunge, further confirming that a false break higher is needed to resume the decline’s momentum.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s narrow ranging extended Thursday’s plunge to slightly lower lows. Fresh trend lows on a Friday, combined with being a second consecutive lower breakout close, all but ensure a lower close before any buy signal can form or trigger.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite Thursday’s recovery into positive territory at 148-08 not lasting through the close, fresh highs were probed Friday up to 148-19. Closing under 148-08 would confirm buyers gained no traction, and under 148-00 would resume the decline next targeting 147-00.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s late dip under 86.00 was too late to gain traction, and it was recovered back up to 86.50 Friday. A fresh low close would target 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Another gap down and fresh low Friday, without much further selling pressure intraday. But this gap down was within the prior session’s range. The session developed mostly within the prior session’s range, too. And the close threatened to turn positive. Avoiding a new trend low close on Friday is an important step to stemming the selling pressure.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s corrective bounce targets were rejected forcibly overnight. More important is how quickly the ground gave way after Wednesday’s close, as if markets only believed the Fed while it was speaking.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The fresh low overnight reversed only slightly into positive territory Thursday, which is technically bullish, but not decisive. Rejecting another fresh low would be more credible, or else rallying immediately into the weekend.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The fresh high overnight reversed only slightly into negative territory Thursday, which is technically bearish, but not decisive. Rejecting another fresh high would be more credible, or else sliding immediately into the weekend.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The overnight reaction down from Wednesday’s test of the 1720.00-1725.00 bounce target had already broken under the 1713.00-1710.00 sell signal to eventually test 1691.00. A bounce to 1703.50 could be retested before the drop resumes to test 1685.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s attack on the 34.00 target was rejected more forcibly than Monday’s breakout attempt, as Thursday’s open gapped down to the 32.65 prior lows and extended lower to 32.30. The outperformance vs. Gold is no longer evident.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s gap down from 148-00 extended to within 9 ticks of the 147-00 target before bouncing back into positive territory at 148-10. Closing in negative territory maintains the drop’s momentum, regardless of the intraday bounce.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s gap down ranged around 86.50 throughout the day. Its break would resume the decline next targeting the 82.00 area.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s fresh low again makes a buy signal impossible to trigger on Friday.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s FOMC statement — both anticipation for it, and reaction to it — continued enhancing the volatility among several key markets. It took currencies back to recent extremes, and extended Gold’s corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s open immediately broke under the 80.10 pullback limit that Tuesday’s gap down had already tested. The drop extended down to 79.70. Rejecting almost any lower intraday low Thursday to close positive would seal a bottom.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s open immediately broke above the 1.3000 bounce limit that Tuesday’s gap up had already tested. The recovery extended up to 1.3100. Rejecting almost any higher intraday high Thursday to close negative would seal a top.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s premature reaction down to 1706.00 from only attacking the bounce’s 1720.00-1725.00 objective was recovered Wednesday to actually touch 1725.00. Closing back under 1720.00 would signal the corrective bounce had ended, and under 1713.00 would signal momentum had reversed down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap up to 33.25 eventually extended to fresh highs attacking the 34.00 target, which remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 33.50 as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday morning’s gap down had been recovered back up to 149-00 before plunging in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC statement, through the 148-16 minimum objective to 147-30. Bounces should now hold test of 148-20 to maintain the decline’s momentum, next targeting 147-00.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Two consecutive days of barely piercing the 85.85 sell signal were rejected Wednesday by gapping up above 86.00 and extending higher to test 87.70. That fills the gap back to last week’s “higher prior lows,” so closing Thursday back under 86.50 would signal the bounce was only a temporary correction before resuming the decline targeting 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The testing of Monday’s 3.40 low extended Wednesday to slightly lower lows. Back above 3.48 would target 3.58, but the trend otherwise remains down.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…