Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s test of resistance pushed price back down, as did the long-bond. Another day of reversal could become very difficult to recover.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s initial strength above 80.00 eventually extended higher to test 80.15, presumably on the way to retesting 80.37 resistance so long as 80.00 now holds as support.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s dip under 1.2955 touched 1.2930. Closing any lower would target 1.2900, and probably also break it to trigger a new downleg. Otherwise, 1.2930 should react up, at least to attack 1.2990.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s test of 1727.00 resistance held an overnight retest before reacting back down sharply Thursday. The afternoon ranged a couple of dollars either way around 1717.00 instead of closing decisively below it which would have put into play 1700.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite gapping up to test 32.70, the balance of the session dipped back under the week’s 32.40 prior high to probe negative territory and still prevent any active signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s attack to within 1 tick of the 149-12 target might have sufficed to end the bounce. Its reaction down Thursday attacked 148-00, whose break is still necessary even to begin signaling that momentum has reversed down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Not only was the decline’s resumption delayed, but Thursday firmed back above 87.00, suggesting that at least 89.00 would be tested.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Too many days have been spent testing prior lows not to have chipped away at its support enough for at least an obligatory probe lower. I wouldn’t position short here just for that, but would consider selling a premature bounce for its potential failure.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The net lack of change among the following commodities in three days of hurricane fallout is remarkable. Trending attempts have failed and ranges have persisted. So, testing those range’s extremes is likely to reverse direction. Like, the long-bond attacking its resistance, or Gold testing its resistance. Perhaps that would allow Natural Gas to hold its ongoing test of support.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 80.00-80.37 range’s resistance held, but a break of its lower-end  has yet to break lower decisively. Closing under 79.90 would signal it had. Otherwise, any initial strength would be likely to retest 80.37.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Multiple test of 1.2900 support held and prevented a bigger downleg. The eventual reaction up to 1.3027 is now retesting the critical 1.2955 support. Closing any lower would target 1.2900, whose retest is unlikely to hold as support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) While the gap back down to 1700.00 remains unfilled, gapping up above 1717.00 resistance was the only path available for trying to extend higher, which was tried Wednesday. And testing 1727.00 resistance would be the end of trying to extend higher, which it was on Wednesday. A drop back to 1719.00 did not regain traction below, but under 1713.00 would target 1700.00..

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap up above 32.00 only tested last week’s 32.40 high. The pattern could extend higher, but there is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Dipping back down to 148-00 which had been the corrective bounce target did not prevent its overthrow from extending higher Wednesday to come within 7 ticks of its extended 149-12 target.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping up Wednesday within the recent range tried probing its 86.40 upper-end intraday to almost 87.20, but 86.40 held ultimately through the close, despite the entire session ranging positive territory. The “ineffectual optimism” should produce a break lower with no further delay if a bigger bounce targeting 89.00 will be avoided.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s probe of 3.80 resistance failed to close above it. Tuesday and Wednesday’s dips to the 3.70 prior low finished each day still testing it as support, keeping alive potential for closing above 3.80 to trigger a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Does Gold’s volatility at the lows suggest a low is forming? In this case, down is up. That is to say, it is potentially more bullish that Friday’s open reacted down from Thursday’s bounce. Now, starting the new week with another blip-down should signal that sellers have been absorbed.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap up to fresh highs at 80.37 was retraced quickly back down into negative territory. The balance of the session ranged sideways around unchanged. A close beyond either end of Friday’s 80.00-80.37 range is likely to trend in that direction.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The first trending attempt from consolidating narrowly for three days was unlikely to gain traction. Friday’s gap down to 1.2900 was retraced entirely back up into positive territory to test 1.2955. Closing under 1.2900 would signal a bigger downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s gap down to 1701.50 stopped just short of filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 1701.00 close, but the upper-end of its structure was tested. And that was enough apparently to launch a probe above Thursday’s highs to test 1720.00. A close above 1717.00 was avoided again to prevent putting into play 1727.00, or invalidating the attraction down to 1701.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s opening test of 32.00 didn’t extend higher, and neither did Friday’s, so there is no assurance of extending further to also test 33.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open gaped up above Thursday’s high and extended back up to the 148-00 corrective bounce target that had already held a test Tuesday. Its recovery would target 149-12. Otherwise, closig under 147-10 would target a retest of Thursday’s 146-05 low, and its break down to 145-05.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Ranging sideways Friday for a fourth consecutive session under the decline’s 87.00 target instead of rallying still keeps alive teh drop’s momentum, but does not preclude there being a false break higher first.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s test of 3.80 resistance reacted down only enough to retest the week’s lows, which keeps alive the potential for its eventual recovery to trigger a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s third consecutive session of ranging sideways must produce an immediate reversal, or else extend the trending.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Ranging narrowly sideways for the third consecutive session makes a breakout less likely to gain traction on its first attempt.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s price action never strayed from the prior two sessions’ ranges, further confirming this area’s attraction. A probe under 1.2955 would be less vulnerable to sliding intraday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s open gapped up to test the decline’s 1717.00 target as resistance where the balance of the session ranged narrowly. Friday could repeat the pattern, gapping up to the decline’s 1727.00 target. But it would not be accumulation, and a retest of 1700.00 is likely.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s gap up through 32.00 didn’t extend higher, and the balance of the session ranged narrowly. Almost any fresh high Friday would be credible for extending up to 33.00. But a retest of 31.70 first is likelier.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The reaction down from the 148-00 corrective bounce target extended down further Thursday to touch 146-02. An intraday reaction up to 147-08 fell back to 146-22 Any lower close would put into play 145-04.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Two days of consolidating under the 87.00 target were followed Thursday by a third. If not rallying almost immediately Friday, then the downleg should be extending to its 82.40 target.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s test of critical 3.80 support (basis Dec, 3.45 basis Nov) was probed intraday Thursday down to 3.36, but recovered back up 3.80 resistance. The detour allows 3.85 to serve again as a buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If FOMC triggered any reaction on Wednesday, at all, it was on bonds. they had bounced optimistically Tuesday. All of that bounce was returned Wednesday. Returning all of the recent rally may not be far behind.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Ranging narrowly sideways Wednesday essentially fulfilled expectations that a trending attempt would have failed. It also makes trending more difficult in the near-term.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s sideways ranging held 1.2955 support without closing under it to trigger a new downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’ narrow ranging below prior lows was not rejected immediately Wednesday, which would have formed an Island. Wednesday only extended under Tuesday’s 1705.00 lows, down to 1699.00. The drop could target 1673.00 if 1727.00 were not recovered without further delay.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Instead of recovering 32.00 Wednesday to trigger a rally back to 33.00, the open’s blip-up to 32.00 reaced down to fresh lows under 31.55. That all but requires extending the drop to 30.75 so long as 32.00is not recovered first.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Testing and holding the 148-00 corrective bounce target Tuesday allowed another reaction down Wednesday. But unlike Monday’s premature dip, now sellers can gain traction by closing under 147-08, initially targeting  retest of 146-06 and 145-00.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s test of the 87.00 target was not rejected Wednesday, as lower lows were probed intraday down to 84.94, barely recovering back up to Tuesday’s 85.69 low.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 3.55 buy signal that was not triggered Tuesday pushed price back down Wednesday, testing critical 3.45 support ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.

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