Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil met its longstanding target Tuesday, and then some. Gold retested its prior low as expected, and then some. Immediately bottoming on such strong momentum is unlikely.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap up extended higher to retrace back to two-week old prior highs. If its natural resistance were to trigger a reaction down, I would expect it to recover for a fresh high.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap down extended back to its original 1.2955 support, which one week earlier had launched a gap up without any signal. Closing any lower would trigger a new downleg. There is otherwise no signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s retest of the 1716.00 low was expected, regardless of how deeply it would be probed intraday. And it was probed deeply, gapping down to 1709.00 and extending at one point down to test 1705.00. But there was no extension or rejection, so a bottom here would depend upon gapping up back above 1716.00 and extending higher to form an Island of Tuesday’s range. Otherwise, if not gapping, Tuesday is likely to gap down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A retest of 32.00 was needed before a bottom could complete. Tuesday’s open gapped down through its 31.57 prior low and consolidated back up to 32.00. A break higher Wednesday would be credible for at least retesting 33.00 as resistance.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s gap down held 147-00 support to keep alive the 148-00 corrective bounce target. Tuesday’s gap up to Friday’s 147-21 high quickly met 148-00, which held. There is no new signal.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the longstanding 87.45 target, testing it down to 85.69, with room for noise down to 85.25. Almost any lower would target 82.40.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s test of the critical 3.44 level was retraced enough Tuesday to test the original 3.50 buy signal. But the new 3.55 buy signal was only tested as resistance.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies were suspiciously quiet again for a day with such wide gyrations among stocks. Is that an opportunity for Gold’s drop to prove it was a correction and form a bottom?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s “inside day” barely touched Friday’s close, and did not extend down to the 79.40 support whose break would resume the decline.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s firmer open stopped short of testing 1.3100, let alone recovering it, which would have put higher targets back into play.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The bounce off of Friday’s test of the 1717.00 target extended slightly higher Monday to test 1730.00. But not closing decisively above 1727.00 for two consecutive sessions all but requires retesting 1717.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday did not repeat Friday’s test of 32.00,. which has potential to form a bottom. But a retest of 32.00 may be needed before a bottom can complete.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The corrective bounce up to 147-21 Friday still had room up to 148-00, which Monday’s gap down to 146-22 may have only interrupted. The balance of the session ranged around 147-00, which keeps alive potential for filling the gap back to Friday’s close, and for extending higher to test 148-00.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s rejection of 93.00 resistance extended down further Monday to 88.55. The 87.00 target remains in-play so long as bounces now hold 89.80 as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Despite Friday’s second consecutive higher close above 3.50 having confirmed a bigger rally underway, targeting 3.75, Monday’s overnight retest of Friday’s 3.64 high was reversed sharply back down to 3.44. That was essentially the original level whose recovery signaled rally potential. It must hold as support, and then close above 3.55 to signal the rally had resumed.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s premature bounce from attacking its first target made its lower target likely to be met. Friday’s plunge got there, and bounced sharply from $1 below it. That should satisfy a correction. If it’s a correction.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s recovery to 79.40 extended higher Friday to retest the prior Friday’s close. Back under 79.40 would target a retest of 79.00. Closing above 79.90 would trigger a bigger rally underway.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The reaction down from Wednesday’s high extended a little lower Friday, which now requires Monday to recover 1.3100 before reinstating momentum for the 1.3200 and 1.3245 targets above.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s close under Wednesday’s 1744.00 low signaled the 1727.00 target’s test was back in-play. The delay was compensated by also testing the 1717.00 target Friday. Recovering1727.00 would have signaled a corrective leg had ended. Closing back above 1736.50 is needed now to trigger a bigger rally.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s open gapped down under prior lows to test 32.00. No recovery is signaled, but there is potential for 32.00‘s test to hold as support and form a bottom.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The corrective bounce triggered above 147-04 Friday to put into play a test of 148-00.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) An early test of the 93.45 bounce limit Friday (basis Dec, 93.00 basis Nov) was rejected by yet a deeper intraday low down to 90.00. It reacted up like prior dips in this range, but then differed by retracing the reaction. The 90.00 close triggers the 91.65-91.95 break that puts into play 87.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s surge through 3.50 extended higher without delay Friday for a second consecutive higher close that confirms a new rally leg is underway, targeting 3.75.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas’ reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was well-timed to leverage a weak pullback. But its follow-through needs at least one more session to confirm.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s dip to the 79.00 target was recovered Thursday back up to 78.40, Tuesday’s low whose break had put into play 79.00. This is only noise, and does not preclude there being a retest of 79.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s dip back under 1.3100 undermines the rally’s momentum. But the rally should still launch another upleg so long as the pullback avoids a second consecutive lower close Friday under Thursday’s ~1.3060 low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s open gapped down under Wednesday’s 1744.00 low, which was retested as resistance through the afternoon, and which was still being tested at the close. Back under 1740.00 should resume the drop’s momentum at least to fulfill its 1727.00 target.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down Thursday to 32.75 did not generate enough momentum to break away from 33.00. But a retest of the 32.57 low is likely.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Firming at Thursday’s open was reversed to fresh lows at 146-10. Closing under 146-06 would invalidate the potential for a bigger corrective bounce up to 148-00.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping down to 91.50 and extending under the 91.20 sell signal to 90.66 still did not launch a new downleg. The morning’s consolidation was retraced back into positive territory up to 92.59, still closing flat around 92.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s reaction to the EIA report surged through 3:50 by nearly a dime, launching a new upleg targeting 3.75, still needing a second consecutive higher close Friday above 3.62 to confirm. Pullbacks must hold 3.50 support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas walked right up to its tipping point Wednesday, but couldn’t push the bounce any higher. Better luck Thursday with the EIA report?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Closing under Tuesday’s 79.40 low would have targeted 79.00, which was tested almost immediately Wednesday morning. Any lower close would target a retest of prior lows at 78.65, and then new lows at 78.30.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s gap up followed Tuesday’s, being a second consecutive higher close that confirms 1.3200 and potentially 1.3425 are in-play. Being within a prior range, the rally would be invalidated by closing back under 1.3100 support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Dipping down to 1744.00 intraday Wednesday was recovered back up to Tuesday’s 1754.00 highs. Buyers gained no new traction in preventing sellers from signaling a momentum reversal, so the next dip should extend down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s bounce back to the relevant 33.00 level was exceeded Wednesday to fresh highs at 33.30. Back under 33.00 would trigger a retest of this week’s 32.57 low.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The drop extended much further to 146-21. That is deep enough to prove the prior rally was only a corrective bounce. That allows another corrective bounce, only shallower, triggered above 147-04 and targeting 148-00.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Without quickly exceeding 93.00 at Wednesday’s open, attacking it to within only 15 cents was retraced entirely back down into negative territory. Now closing under 91.50 and 91.20 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Closing above 3.48 would signal that momentum had reversed up, but it held as resistance Wednesday despite being pierced intraday by 2 cents. It was tested up to 3.50, whose recovery now would put into play 3.75.

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