Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Relatively narrow ranging among Crude Oil and Currencies like the Euro feels like coiling ahead of a bigger move. Actually triggering it seems to be the issue.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s weakness narrowly avoided probing a fresh low by only touching 79.55 instead of breaking under it. A rally can’t be delayed, or else a new downleg would be credible.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Proving that Monday’s session wasn’t “ineffectual optimism,” Tuesday gapped up and probed the prior two days’ highs. Now, Wednesday will need to extend higher at a steeper pace to prove that Tuesday wasn’t “ineffectual optimism,” either.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s narrow inside day all but contradicted Monday’s surge to fresh highs. It was more in-line with the surge’s rejection, without signaling that momentum has actually reversed down. If 1770.00 isn’t broken early Wednesday, then there would be much greater potential for one more fresh high targeting 1814.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s test of the long-standing 35.40 target was not repeated Tuesday. Not even 35.00 was recovered, so 36.75 is not necessarily in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Another inside day was narrowly avoided, but Tuesday was once again easily contained within the past several sessions’ relatively narrow range. Breaking immediately under 148-10 would be credible for extending down. Any shallower dip would more likely recover to fresh highs, and probing fresh highs first would be more credible for reacting down sharply.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Still at or under 93.00 Tuesday, which continues to prevent a rally leg from emerging.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 3.58 target was attacked to within 3 cents Tuesday, and remains in-play so long as pullbacks were to hold 3.45 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Like tremors felt before an earthquake, several markets retraced opening gaps Monday. Currencies never extended their opens and only ranged narrowly sideways. Gold and Silver probed fresh highs before reversing back to Friday’s closing levels. Energies held up, but Natural Gas behaved much more strongly than Crude Oil.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Sunday night’s fresh high was rejected before Monday’s open. Its gap down never extended lower, and the session developed entirely within Friday’s range. Probing any lower Tuesday would be credible for extending into a downleg.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh lows were unavoidable after Friday’s session. Sunday night fulfilled that, and recovered before Monday’s open. Its gap up spent the entire session in positive territory, but held resistance at Friday’s high. Probing any higher Tuesday would be credible for triggering a rally.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Last week I criticized Thursday’s recovery from Wednesday’s dip to the 1740.00 corrective target as being too quick. That is still a problem, despite Monday extending higher to retest the 1790.00 prior highs up to 1794.40. In fact, the fresh high was retraced to close back under Thursday and Friday’s highs. Back under 1770.00 would signal a deeper corrective leg underway, targeting 1727.00 and 1717.00. Otherwise, another fresh high would instead target 1814.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The long-standing 35.40 target was met Monday. It was retraced abruptly back under prior highs, and back under 35.00. Almost any higher close Tuesday would get a benefit of the doubt for putting into play 36.75.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s inside day maintained the prior three days’ trading range that has been hovering narrowly at recent highs. A failed probe of fresh highs is still likelier to trigger a new downleg than simply to try probing lower.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday morning’s fresh highs at 93.33 ultimately held 93.00 as resistance. In fact, much of the remaining session ranged narrowly around Friday’s 92.35 high, suggesting that buying pressure has been expended so the decline can resume.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s gap up quickly fulfilled the 3.40 target and extended higher to 3.48. So long as 3.40 now holds as support, the 3.58 and 3.75 targets are in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold on Friday didn’t extend Thursday’s recovery attempt, confirming suspicions. But not falling all almost immediately Monday would be able to extend higher.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s reversal extended down initially overnight to 78.44, but that was all retraced overnight and reversed intraday to probe recent highs up to 80.09. Back under 79.78 would once again trigger another downleg targeting 79.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s pivot reversal pattern initially extended higher overnight up to 1.2971. Its reversal through the morning attacked Thursday’s prior lows down to 1.2850. A fresh low will be difficult to avoid, but any hesitation at extending down should soon find a more substantial upleg forming.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s rally initially firmed overnight to test 1786.00. Its reaction down held a test of 1770.00 support, whose break would confirm the recovery attempt had failed. The recovery is suspicious simply for not extending higher Friday, and any more selling pressure would be credible for another downleg targeting 1727.00 and 1717.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) No second consecutive higher close Friday meant Thursday’s recovery attempt was not confirmed. Extending above 35.00 Monday would get a benefit of the doubt for resuming the rally, confirmed above 35.40 and targeting 36.75. There is no other active signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s inside day made the second consecutive such setup, following the Tuesday-Wednesday set. New highs are not attracting sponsorship, but reversing down first would be likely to recover. Probing and rejecting another fresh high above 150-00 would be better able to extend down.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s narrow ranging didn’t reject Thursday’s bounce, or confirm that the 91.20 bounce limit ultimately held. But neither was Thursday’s bounce extended, making a retest of the low or lower still likely.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Probing fresh highs Friday makes the rally likely to extend further to 3.40 on the way to 3.58 and 3.75.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s quick recovery from the correction’s target is suspicious. Almost any hesitation at extending higher would suggest fresh lows coming in a hurry.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Gapping down Thursday reacted up from testing the 79.78 sell signal. The reaction up peaked upon testing 80.00 and filling the gap back to Wednesday’s close. The balance of the session trended down to fresh lows, putting into play 79.00 and then lower, assuming that Friday were to confirm with a second consecutive lower close.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s price action formed a Pivot Reversal, by probing fresh trend lows intraday that were book-ended by gapping and by closing above the morning’s high. If confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday, recovering 1.2920 Thursday now signals that 1.3110 and 1.3200 area in-play.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s test of the drop’s 1740.00 target was recovered Thursday to 1783.00. The speed of the correction still seems too fast to fully serve as a correction. That said, a second consecutive higher close would signal the next target at 1814.00 is in-play. But almost any hesitation in extending higher — and dipping back under 1770.00 — would resume the correction, next targeting 1727.00 and potentially 1717.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The weak hands sponsoring the recent dip were made evident by Thursday’s gap up that extended higher intraday. But second consecutive higher close above 35.00 is still needed to resume the rally, next targeting 35.40 on the way to 36.75.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s inside day consolidated Wednesday’s fresh recovery highs. Closing back under 148-28 would trigger at least a correction down to 147-16.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s open gapped up to immediately test its 91.20 bounce limit. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher. A second consecutive higher close would suggest the 89.75 target had held. Otherwise, its retest remains in-play, with potential for extending down to 87.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s EIA data triggered a reaction down that was recovered to fresh highs at 3.32. Any higher would all but assure also probing above 3.40, probably on the way to 3.58 and 3.75. Closing under 3.19 would signal momentum reversing down.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Precious Metals probed fresh lows as they further delayed retesting Friday’s fresh highs. Wednesday’s action actually suggests a deeper dip for more days.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s shallow bounce nonetheless extended sharply at Wednesday’s open, probing fresh recent highs. Back under 79.78 would trigger a bigger drop underway 79.00 and then lower.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Limiting Tuesday’s dip to only a 61.8% retracement back to Monday’s low didn’t prevent gapping down to fresh lows Wednesday. But the moves are still related, and back above 1.2920 would target 1.3110 and then 1.3200.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The third rejection of probing above 1760.00-1770.00 couldn’t afford to delay recovering back to Friday’s highs, or else a correction would be underway. Wednesday’s drop to 1738.50 was deep enough to fulfill the correction, but it would be premature, so there is potential for extending down to 1727.00 and 1717.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s close was essentially flat with Monday’s break to avoid confirming that momentum had reversed down. That didn’t prevent probing fresh lows intraday down to 33.96, but it did help recover back into positive territory testing 33.96. That’s not a buy signal, but it does reflect that sellers may be weak-handed, so only temporary.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The two-week rally from 144-17 extended sharply higher Wednesday. There is no active sell signal.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The 89.75 target was met Wednesday, and held as support after being probed intraday by $1. The 87.00 target remains intact so long as bounces no hold 91.20 as resistance.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s close at the 2.90 buy signal extended sharply higher Wednesday to 3.05. The 3.25 target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 3.00 as support.

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