Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas exploded higher in reaction to a setup that has been tracking tired sellers trapping themselves short. And there’s room for more upside.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thanks only to intervention rumor, Thursday produced a second consecutive lower close, but still testing prior lows. Closing under 82.35 Friday would target 81.40. Otherwise, close above 82.80 would target 83.40.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Intervention rumor pushed up above the closing test of 1.2615 prior highs. Confirmation Friday would target 1.2760. Closing under 1.2555 would target 1.2325.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A lot of difficulty getting at 1626.00 resistance. No bullish reason to retest 1608.00-1610.00 support again, or to further delay retesting last week’s highs up to 1644.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite holding 28.75 support Wednesday, Thursday soon plunged through it to 28.15, and any lower would trigger a new downleg targeting new lows under 26.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Another day, another probe under 148-18 that recovers to avoid sellers gaining traction. But the delay in producing even an obligatory rally above 150-06 is getting odd.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Another test of 84.00 has further delayed the unfinished business below at 81.25, but a second consecutive higher close Friday would target another detour at least to 86.65.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 4-5 day pattern that reflected tired selling pressure was vulnerable to any news. The 2.23 open spiked up through the 2.32 signal on EIA news and extended higher to its 2.50 target. A second consecutive higher close Friday would next target 2.83.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Euro up Wednesday, while stocks were down… Not their most common relationship. Presumably, one of the two markets will react sharply back in the opposite direction, as each starts trending in tandem.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s narrow escape from breaking under 82.80 (82.35 basis Jun) melted away by Wednesday’s gap down under Tuesday’s lows. The session extended down, filling an outstanding gap. A second consecutive lower close under Wednesday’s low would launch a new downleg. Otherwise, there remains potential for recovering to retest 83.39.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s probe above 1.2555 filled the outstanding gap back up to 1.2600, and held. Back under 1.2555 Thursday would signal the bounce had been absorbed, and probably finally launching a retest of 1.2325. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Thursday would launch a new rally leg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight dip to 1607.00 was recovered through Wednesday’s open and extended to a fresh high at 1626.00. Ultimately, the session’s positive close maintained potential for retesting last week’s highs up to 1644.00. But now 1608.00 must hold as support to prevent sellers from regaining traction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s narrow choppy range around 29.00 held 28.75 support to maintain potential for firming further up to 29.30 and to 30.30-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wide ranging around 148-18 continued Wednesday. But despite gapping down below it to test 147-19, the balance of the session rallied to fill the gap back to 149-16. The next higher objective also expected to attract price is 150-06, which is now in-play so long as 149-06 holds as support.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping down Wednesday to test 82.15 stopped short of fulfilling the long-awaited retest of 81.25. So, the intraday recovery held 84.00 resistance, and reversed to close negative, maintaining the drop’s momentum.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Despite a second consecutive new low having avoided confirmation again, Wednesday’s open gapped down and the entire session ranged essentially in negative territory. But it didn’t extend down, which is another version of the same tired selling that has characterized the drop. Closing above 2.32 would still be bullish.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s fresh high could extend higher, back to recent highs, if Tuesday’s test of its bounce target isn’t rejected through Wednesday’s close.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday afternoon’s narrow ranging didn’t persist. But Tuesday’s choppiness didn’t gain traction. Probes into positive and negative territory did not gain traction. A retest of 83.39 remains possible so long as 82.35 were to hold as support, which Tuesday’s low did.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s choppy session ended nearly unchanged. The outstanding gap open below at 1.2325 remains in-play so long as 1.2555 is not recovered.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would have put into play 1611.00. But that was already fulfilled intraday. An overnight dip had held the 1584.00 pullback limit and soon after the open recovered into positive territory, extending up to 1619.00. Prior highs can be tested up to 1644.50 so long as 1600.00 now holds as support. But closing under 1595.00 would signal momentum reversing back down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The attraction back up to last Wednesday’s 29.30 gap up remains the pattern’s only active pattern, with potential above it to 30.00-30.35, so long as 28.75 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Nearly all of Tuesday’s session ranged narrowly around 148-18. No prior low was probed, so sellers gained no traction, leaving outstanding the attraction back up to the 150-06 gap back to Friday’s open.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s session only ranged narrowly around 83.00, instead of recovering it, which maintains the attraction to retest the 81.35 low.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s break lower, like Thursday’s, was not confirmed the following day. Tuesday was instead an “inside day.” Sellers productivity has yet to gain traction. Still a close above 2.32 is needed simply to signal the drop’s momentum has ended.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The reaction to the weekend’s Spain bailout had all but disappeared by Monday’s open. And it was reversed in many cases Monday intraday. This can reveal weaknesses in sponsorship. The long bond is one example, having recovered from sharply lower levels overnight to suggest that the rally’s highs will soon be retested. Meanwhile, Crude Oil is attacking last week’s overnight lows, which will neutralize their attraction.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Sunday night’s deep drop disappeared by Monday night’s open. The bounce stopped short of 82.70, whose recovery would resume the rally. But just closing back above 82.35 still keeps the door open.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) By late Monday morning, the market was ranging narrowly at unchanged around 1.2515, which persisted through the afternoon. Neither the overnight gap up to 1.2645-1.2665 or the regular session’s gap up to 1.2555 require being retested. So long as 1.2555 is not recovered, the 1.2325 remains in-play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Sunday night’s reaction to Spain’s bailout triggered a rally to 1609.00. But there wasn’t much left by the open. A dip into negative territory held 1584.00 as support to prevent sellers from gaining traction. Regardless, closing higher Tuesday would be credible for retesting Sunday night’s high up to 1611.00. Back under 1674.00 would simply resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Sunday night’s rally above 28.75 peaked at 29.00, and had disappeared entirely by the open. The entire session only ranged around unchanged. There is no active pattern, only an attraction up to last Wednesday’s 29.30 gap up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s close at 148-18 support didn’t prevent dropping Sunday night to 146-28. But it helped to recover the entire drop before Monday’s open. Despite the recovery, the intraday high stopped pessimistically short of retesting the 150-06 gap  back to Friday’s open, which still suggests that sellers are weak hands.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Sunday night’s probe above 86.00 resistance was rejected, again keeping alive potential to retest the 81.25 low. In fact, Monday’s post-close action has attacked 81.25 to within 50 cents. It remains in-play so long as 83.00 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Despite Friday not confirming Thursday’s break lower, Monday broke lower, too. There is no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s plunge Thursday night was entirely in-line with its intraday setup. Its intraday bounce has already expended any pent-up buying pressure that would have ensured another rally attempt after the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap up to 82.70 reacted down intraday to close back under 82.35. Closing above 82.70 Monday would resume the rally. There is otherwise no active signal.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday I pointed out the pattern’s eery similarity to the S&Ps recent peak. An overnight plunge down to 1.2435 quickly fulfilled expectations. Back above 1.2540 would signal a retest of Thursday’s 1.2600 close. Otherwise, the 1.2325 target remains in-play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The drop’s next lower target at 1553.50 was attacked to within $3 by a $33 drop before Friday’s open. It was all retraced into the afternoon, and extended higher into the close. But the 1596.00 bounce limit was not recovered, only touched, so a close under 1574.00 would still trigger a new downleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap down extended Thursday’s plunge a little deeper. But it was ultimately recovered to close flat. The gap back up to 29.40 and the outstanding target at 30.00-30.35 is not actively targeted, but still likely to be tested.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Strong support at 148-18 was confirmed by Friday’s gap up to test 150-10. Strong attraction to support was confirmed by the session-long reaction back down to it at the close. The gap back to Thursday’s close was filled almost as quickly as it was created, neutralizing its attraction below. And the attraction back to Friday’s opening gap up remains outstanding.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The rejected tests of 86.00 resistance reacted down sharply after Thursday’s close to test 82.00. A session-long bounce into the close ended the day testing 84.00 resistance. This keeps alive potential to retest the 81.25 actual overnight low. But closing above 85.00 would signal a bigger rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) There was no second consecutive lower close Friday, so Thursday’s plunge to new lows was not confirmed. Closing above 2.37-2.39 Monday would signal that a correction had ended.

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