Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies may be turning a corner. Gold and Crude Oil are getting run over in the process.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Sellers had failed to gain traction Wednesday by holding prior lows, but buyers failed to gain traction by not closing above 81.70. That was rectified Thursday. The next higher attraction is 83.00, and then 83.77, so long as 82.15 were to hold as support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Closing under 1.2640 Thursday did what Wednesday did not, signal that sellers were gaining traction. Closing next under 1.2490 would confirm 1.2324 is in-play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1616.50 sell signal triggered Wednesday, but not until after already having dipped to 1590.50. Nevertheless, the sell signal was immediately productive by extending down to fresh lows Thursday under 1565.00. So long as 1572.50 isn’t recovered on a closing basis, 1550.00 and potentially 1532.00 area in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Having neutralized the attraction above by filling the gap back to close Wednesday, the pattern extended down sharply Thursday to test new lows. So long as bounces were to hold 27.30-27.50 as resistance, the drop is targeting 26.64 and 25.45.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Some “flight-to-quality.” While more than 1 point was added intraday to test 149-18 resistance, the close backed off to avoid triggering a buy signal. If Thursday’s stock market decline couldn’t finally trigger it, I’m not sure what could, especially with no econ reports due Friday. Regardless, there is no other active signal.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite meeting and holding its target Wednesday, no buy signal triggered. The drop extended down sharply $3-1/2 Thursday to 78.05. Being a second consecutive lower close, 77.77 and 75.40 are now in-play so long as 82.05 holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Two intraday dips had held 2.50 support, but Thursday’s reaction up on EIA held the 2.62 prior highs. Its break on Friday would target at least 2.83, closing under 2.50 would cast much doubt on the recovery’s potential.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight FOMC news made for an interesting day that accelerated some patterns, and confirmed others. Meanwhile, Crude Oil finally fulfilled a long-standing target that is free to launch a new rally leg.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s volatile post-FOMC 82.00-81.40 swing held prior lows to suggest that sellers did not gain traction. But a close above 81.70 is needed to signal a rally leg underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s wide reaction to FOMC plunged to 1.2646 and then surged to a fresh high at 1.2753 that exceeded Sunday night’s brief high. Closing negative back under 1.2700 suggests that buyers didn’t gain traction, but a close under 1.2640 is still needed to trigger a downleg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Two days of “ineffectual optimism” above 1631.00 produced a dive Wednesday to fresh lows under 1608.00 down to 1590.50. A late surge to 1621.50 failed to close above 1616.50, which signals that momentum is reversing down. Considering the extensive probing below 1616.50 that preceded the close, a second consecutive negative close Thursday would be helpful confirmation.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down tested 28.00 and so did the afternoon, both times recovering back to Tuesday’s 28.50 close. The pattern remains unpredictable, although sellers seem to be pushing price down only grudgingly.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A steep sell-off to fresh intraday lows down to 147-21preceded Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Its reaction up to 149-10 was retraced almost entirely back down to session lows. Closing above 149-18 would now suffice to trigger a new rally leg underway. There is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Unfinished business below at 81.25 was finally tested Wednesday. Its retest below 81.00 was also very constructive to flushing out sellers. Closing above 83.00 would signal the drop’s momentum was absorbed, possibly also reversing momentum up, which would be confirmed by closing above 84.00..

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Having held the 2.50 pullback limit Tuesday, Wednesday’s gap up to 2.68 tested Tuesday’s high. That extra room helped to absorb renewed selling that once again tested 2.50 as support. A lot of selling has been expended without breaking under support, but not yet rejecting the support test, just ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight How frustrating is Natural Gas. Advancing sharply higher over several days, without ever confirming a buy signal. The rally can’t afford to hesitate recovering from Tuesday’s pullback, not without potentially resuming the previous decline.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday did not offer a second consecutive higher close that might have confirmed Monday’s recovery attempt. The open gapped down under Monday’s 82.08 intraday low and extended sharply lower to 81.39. Unless 81.70 were recovered Wednesday, this leg would target 81.10, if not also 80.65.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s open gapped up above Monday’s 1.2630 intraday high instead of dropping to confirm momentum reversing down. Closing back under 1.2640 may be the only way to avoid extending higher to 1.2880, if not also 1.3000.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A probe above 1631.00 was retraced into Tuesday’s open, and the balance of the session slid to 1618.00. Not immediately resuming the rally may have ended it. Closing Wednesday under 1616.50 would signal momentum reversing down. Closing above 1631.00 resistance would be the first step to resuming the rally.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Ranging Tuesday from 28.75 down to 28.25 was only noise. The pattern’s resolution has become very unpredictable.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s dip to 148-22 recovered to close the day testing 149-00. That’s hardly a close above 150-08, which would have triggered a new rally leg underway. There is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Brief overnight weakness down to 82.30 was recovered into Tuesday’s open to test 84.00 resistance, which continued to hold, maintaining the 81.25 objective.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s rally extended only slightly higher overnight to 2.67. But Tuesday’s session only trended down to 2.50 support. Still no confirmation of a durable rally underway, since still no second consecutive higher close. But its potential remains alive  so long as 2.50 holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s gap up on Greece’s election results almost immediately fulfilled the precise target that was put into play last week. Its reaction down confirmed that a lot of buying pressure was satisfied, and also suggested that the rally was only a detour.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 81.40 target was met to 81.43 at Sunday night’s open. Its reaction up recovered enough to gap up at Monday’s open and then test 82.36. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would signal momentum reversing up to retest the highs.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.2760 target was met within minutes of Sunday night’s open (to only 1.2759). It was reversed so substantially that Monday’s open gapped down under Friday’s 1.2640 close. The session trended down to 1.2567. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would signal momentum reversing back down to the lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The immediate reaction to Greece’s results was a tumble to 1607.00. A recovery to the 1631.00 area filled the gap back to Friday’s close, but gained no traction for the effort. This follows Friday’s “ineffectual optimism,” so resuming the all but requires extending higher without delay Tuesday.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap down to 28.25 was recovered to fill the gap back to Friday’s close in the 28.75 area. Buyers gained no traction for the effort.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Sunday night’s open gapped down to test 148-12, but a recovery probed Friday’s high up to 150-09, fulfilling the 150-06 minimum objective. The close was essentially unchanged, but closing Tuesday above 150-08 would trigger a rally with potential to 153-04.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The Euro’s surge on Greece’s results triggered a gap up Sunday night in Crude Oil, testing 85.60. The Euro’s tumble cut both ways, sending Crude back down to 82.04. Friday’s 84.00 close was not recovered, and the 81.25 target was left outstanding.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s open firmed and the balance of the session trended up to test 2.64. A second consecutive higher close would confirm that 2.83 is in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond finally reacted up from its ongoing tests of support. But even that reaction up was muted, relative to its objective. The pessimism suggests a bigger upleg is still coming.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s close under 82.35 now puts into play a test of 81.40, which was attacked to 81.88. A bounce could test 82.15 without beginning to signal sellers losing traction.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s fresh high close has put into play a test of 1.2760, which would remain in-play so long as 1.2600 were to hold as support, and preferably with confirmation Monday from a second consecutive higher close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A morning probe above 1626.00 resistance tested 1635.00. That was the lower-end of the 1635.001642.00 target met the prior week. Its test wasn’t rejected, but the morning’s high held while negative territory was avoided. This “ineffectual optimism” isn’t itself a sell signal, not without breaking back under 1608.00-1610.00. But it does require the rally to extend higher Monday, which would likely test 1645.00 without delay, unless the top is already in.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap up quickly peaked for the day. The balance of the session ranged narrowly around unchanged, resisted by 28.75. Above 29.00 could trigger a test of 30.00-30.35, but under 28.15 would target new lows under 26.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Finally, the tests of 148-18 support have reacted up to test 150-06. Or, at least to attack it within 5 ticks. There was plenty of time remaining to actually probe it, so the “ineffectual pessimism” suggests it will be exceeded meaningfully, and presumably targeting fresh highs at 153-04.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s choppy ranging around unchanged held 84.00 resistance, keeping alive the 81.25 target. And a second consecutive higher close was avoided, so 86.65 was not put into play.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s surge through the 2.32 buy signal to its 2.50 target extended higher only overnight, but not intraday Friday. The potential to 2.83 remains intact so long as pullbacks were to hold 2.38.

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