Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro was trashed at Wednesday’s open. Its session low was not arbitrary, but critical support. Its test was not entirely rejected, so a fresh low is all but required.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite reacting down throughout the day from gapping up, Wednesday’s close was still above Tuesday’s. And that was a second consecutive higher confirming close. A fresh high above Wednesday’s 79.40 high is likely, whether or not as part of an extended rally. So, any corrective dip to 78.85-79.00 should still recover.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) A break from Tuesday’s test of 1.3220 to close under 1.3185 would have triggered a bigger downleg. The overnight break under 1.3185 did extend sharply lower for Wednesday to gap down to 1.3145 support. The pattern should either bounce Thursday to test 1.3200 before extending down, or else probably gap down to extend the decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s dive to 1645.00 was recovered and reversed to new relative highs testing 1672.00 through Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon’s behavior sounded the warning bells. And now Wednesday has retraced back down to 1646.00.A late bounce attacked 1657.00, and not recovering it would next target 1644.00. Closing above 1661.00 would not itself be bullish, but it would undermine sellers.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s close was still testing 30.65, instead of breaking under it which would have triggered a new downleg underway. Closing under 30.40 would still be bearish, and recovering 31.05 would undermine sellers.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s break under 142-10 had a bounce limit of 142-14, which was already being probed after Tuesday’s close. Wednesday’s ADP report triggered a gap up back to the week’s highs testing 143-02. There is still no buy signal, but there is a gap outstanding back down to Tuesday’s 142-05 close that should try attracting price down. And there is still a sell signal at 142-10.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s open gapped down and spent the session essentially ranging narrowly around the 105.25 buy signal that had triggered Tuesday. If the signal were valid, then the rally should resume Thursday with no deeper or longer of a pullback.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday morning’s pullback held the 2.30 pullback limit. But a break lower tested 2.23. No pullback at all was required before extending the rally higher, so the pattern probably won’t tolerate much longer of a pullback. The resolution to Thursday’s EIA report could make the difference between resuming either this week’s rally or the prior decline.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s much anticipated breakout finally appeared Tuesday. So much accumulation having preceded it, almost any hesitation in extending higher would raise a caution flag.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down back to Friday’s lows immediately fulfilled Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” that I described here yesterday. Contact me for any help understanding the setup. The reaction to ISM’s surprise recovered back through Monday’s highs, and a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would signal a much bigger upleg underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was fulfilled immediately Tuesday by gapping up to probe fresh highs. But no buy signal triggered. And ISM’s surprise triggered a spike back down to Monday’s lows. Back under 1.3220 would likely test 1.3185, whose break is still needed to trigger any bigger downleg.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s fresh highs up to 1672.30 confirmed suspicions that Monday’s spike down to 1645.10 wasn’t bearish. But the next reaction down barely held 1657.00, and its recovery back above 1661.00 was sluggish. The next higher objective at 1688.50 remains in-play, but closing under 1657.00 would still be bearish.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s gap up immediately rejected Monday’s close just under 31.05. But the gap back to Friday’s 31.33 close held as resistance. And Tuesday’s close fell back under 31.05. Immediate strength Wednesday would again be credible for extending higher to 32.30 — now, perhaps, more so — but closing under 30.65 would resume the bigger downleg.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s weaker open initially probed Monday’s 143-02 highs. Not exactly “initial weakness,” but ISM’s surprise sent bonds down to and through 142-10 anyway. A second consecutive lower under 142-10 would confirm a much larger downleg underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s open had already firmed up to fresh highs at the 105.25 buy signal. ISM’s surprise triggered a surge that eventually tested 106.40. Now a second consecutive higher close would confirm 112.00 in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Higher highs overnight at 2.36 were not rejected Tuesday, already a bullish factor for this pattern. Fresh highs were eventually probed, putting into play 2.44 and 2.50, so long as 2.30 were to hold any test as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Very interesting action continues in the Energy sector. Crude Oil swallowed another gap down that probed support, only to reverse into positive territory. Meanwhile, Natural Gas fulfilled its intraday objective to retest last week’s high. Seems like a “put up, or shut up” moment for each.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap up did not extend higher, but the entire session developed in positive territory. This is essentially “ineffectual optimism” that makes a retest of recent lows likely. No bounce would be very credible for gaining traction otherwise.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s gap down and session-long ranging in negative territory nonetheless held 1.3220 “lower prior highs” as support. The gap back to Friday’s 1.3260 close remains open, and likely to be filled. Both 1.3260 above and 1.3215 below should be tested before extending in either direction.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Closing above 1661.00 again Friday confirmed a bigger bounce underway. That didn’t prevent Monday’s gap down from sliding through 1657.00 and extending down quickly to 1645.00. But Friday’s signal did help to reverse Monday’s steep drop back up into positive territory. Still targeting 1688.50, so long as 1657.00 holds through any close.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down Monday under 31.05 support undermines the recovery’s potential up to 32.30. Immediately recovering 31.05 through Tuesday’s open would reinstate the bounce potential, and possibly extend its target. There is otherwise no active sell signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Only a last-minute spike down Monday probed back under Friday’s 142-30 high. Almost any initial weakness Tuesday would target 142-10, whose break would renew the decline. There is otherwise no active buy signal.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s recovery from probing lows bought the recovery a little more time before it must become obvious. Monday’s gap down to probe 104.00 was recovered back up to another fresh high testing 105.00, so there should be no further delay in extending higher.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Opening almost any firmer Monday was likely to retest last week’s attack on 2.30 high. The target was met by a Rising Wedge into the close. The pattern is likely to resolve up sharply when it appears in an uptrend.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro did react to Spain’s downgrade, falling overnight to fresh lows. Then it reacted to Italy’s debt placement, rallying to fresh highs. It’s difficult to criticize a recovery like that.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) A bounce in reaction to Spain’s downgrade was nonetheless reversed down to new lows at 78.72, so 78.50‘s test seems unavoidable.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Overnight dip to 1.3160 was recovered before Friday’s open, avoiding a sell signal, and serving instead as a slingshot to probe fresh highs up to 1.3273. Unless rejected immediately Monday, 1.3320 and potentially 1.3333 may be unavoidable.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight dip under 1657.00 was recovered to probe fresh highs at 1668.40. Back under 1657.00 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, the rally is now targeting 1688.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The higher prior lows” at 31.25-31.25 tested Thursday were still being tested throughout Friday. Reluctance to fill a nearby outstanding gap at 31.75 reflects constructive pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So long as 31.05 support is not broken, the recovery attempt should extend to 32.30.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) An overnight rally to fresh highs at 143-18 was retraced all the way back down to 142-10, whose break through a prior close already indicated the pattern is distributive. That doesn’t prevent fresh highs while awaiting confirmation under 141-20, but it makes fresh highs likely to fail. Still, a close back under 142-10 Monday is needed to maintain the bearish posture, and to avoid retesting 143-18 intraday.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s session recovered an overnight dip to 103.75 and an intraday dip to 104.00 to probe Thursday’s 104.90 high. Recovering the two dips is still bullish accumulation to justify not already breaking higher into the weekend, But a close above resistance is still needed to trigger a rally leg.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Friday’s open gapped up from Thursday’s late plunge, and extended higher intraday to test 2.20 (basis Jun, 2.11 basis May). Opening almost any firmer Monday would be likely to trend up into the afternoon, potentially to fresh highs above 2.30.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s steep rally Thursday extended Wednesday’s stunning recovery from fulfilling my unfinished business below.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Fresh lows overnight at 78.90 already retraced before Thursday’s open, but attacked intraday Thursday. A quick recovery back above 79.15 — and then a quick rally from there — may be the only way to avoid extending the decline at an accelerated pace down to 78.50.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh highs overnight were already retraced before Thursday’s open, but attacked intraday. Still potential up to 1.3295/1.3333 so long as 1.3185 holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Having immediately recovered Wednesday’s $25 plunge that fulfilled the 1633.00 and 1626.50 downside targets, Thursday’s session became vulnerable to extending sharply higher. Thursday’s open did gap up, extending to fresh highs through the afternoon up testing 1661.00. Any higher close would put into play another attempt at 1688.50, but closing under 1657.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s gap up extended back up to “higher prior lows” at 31.25. It is possible that Wednesday’s 29.92 low sufficed for the 29.55 target. But there is room up to 31.75 and 32.30 before signaling a more durable recovery underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Bounce potential to 142-30 was fulfilled within 3 ticks by Thursday’s gap up. The balance of the session trended back down to within 5 ticks back to Wednesday’s 141-27 close. Presumably, “ineffectual optimism” prevented filling the gap, and closing under 141-20 would still confirm that momentum has reversed down durably.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The recovery from re-testing 102.25 support eked slightly higher Thursday, now almost pessimistically avoiding a probe of 105.25 resistance. The premise continues to be that momentum is shifting upward. But a surge to fresh highs Friday would be very appropriate at this stage of the pattern if it does intend to resolve bullishly.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Wednesday’s rally to 2.07 did lead to higher highs Thursday, but they were sharply higher highs at 2.18 that proved unsustainable after the morning’s EIA report. A plunge into the close fell to 2.00, when 2.02 needed to hold as support. Post-close action did immediately recover to probe back above 2.02, and now a close Friday back above 2.05 would suggest another rally leg could develop.

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