Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natty Gas extended its bounce, suggesting a peak coming on its third day — Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s ga up peaked at 80.35 resistance, which had been very relevant support when tested last week. Its entire post-open gain was retraced, leaving outstanding the gap back to Monday’s close. Even if the lower were in, a durable bottom has not formed.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s test of the 1.3050 target had room to react down to 1.2955. Tuesday’s low was 1.2956. Apparently that was close enough since it’s morning test launched a bounce back up to 1.3032. The rally is free to extend higher without delay, although that is not required.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping down Tuesday after missing the 1684.00 target by only $2 Monday suggests the target will be met.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s open avoided gapping down and the morning avoided any weakness. This helps Monday’s range avoid becoming a bearish Island Reversal. An immediate drop is still possible, but likely to recover.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Firming only slightly at Tuesday’s open made any significant follow-through unlikely at this stage of the pattern. But the balance of the session didn’t extend down. So, now a corrective bounce with potential to 142-00 would be targeted above 141-14.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite gapping down and essentially trading the entire session in negative territory, Tuesday’s session did not invalidate Monday’s gap up.A break under 98.25 is needed to resume the decline.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) The second day of the (up)crash(down) setup extended higher again, all but ensuring another fresh high Wednesday — and for that fresh high to be reversed and close in negative territory.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas fulfilled my (up)crash(down) setup. Its an interesting pattern that may have completed its setup Monday in S&Ps. And that would correlate to the Euro having met its target Monday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite hanging on to 80.35 resistance into the weekend, Monday’s open gapped down to attack the next lower objective at 79.30. A bounce has room up to 80.15 without gaining traction that might prevent the decline from extending down.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping up Monday quickly fulfilled the rally’s initial 1.3050 target. The session did not close above its open, suggesting that a corrective dip to 1.2955 may be necessary to extend the rally to its next higher target(s) at 1.3333 and 1.3400.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s high came within $2 of the rally’s 1684.00 target. Closing above the morning’s highs does suggest the rally will extend higher without delay Tuesday. But closing negative after testing 1684.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap up was not extended any higher through the close, which went out around 32.40, well short of the 33.55 target. Closing Tuesday under Monday’s low would suggest the rally was topping. Opening Tuesday under Friday’s 31.75 close would signal the rally had peaked.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Already having twice confirmed the drop from testing 145-10 resistance, Monday’s open gapped down to new lows at 141-10 and extended intraday to 140-21. Unless Tuesday’s open were already rallying aggressively on the way to test 142-00 resistance, the 140-00 target remains intact.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s gap up on renewed tensions with Iran produced a test of 99.40-99.75 resistance. They were still being tested through the close. Coming one day after breaking under their support, their rejection through the close would have been bearish confirmation. Instead, extending further Tuesday above 99.40-99.75 would make 103.00 and even 111.00 increasingly likely.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Maybe a day late, but not a dollar short… The (up)crash(down) setup produced the biggest single gaining session Monday since… a long time. Its intraday swing from 2.29 to 2.63 matched any three consecutive cumulative sessions of the ten-day decline. That much of the signal was fulfilled. The signal also suggests that a bottom will now form, although Monday’s bounce could first extend higher to 2.80 so long as 2.50 holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The stock market’s narrow range Friday stood in stark contrast to several bigger moves among futures markets. Bonds extended their downleg, while Crude Oil may have begun one. What happens Monday when Expiration’s influence wears off?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s test of 80.35 had to hold as support to avoid a much bigger downleg. It did. But Friday’s gap up settled back to Thursday’s close and only ranged sideways throughout the day. Initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher, but fresh lows would suggest the decline was resuming.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh highs overnight disappeared by Friday’s open. The balance of the session ranged sideways around unchanged. Not reacting down hard intraday suggests that impatient buyers were corrected, and any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday morning’s dip to 1647.00 support was recovered intraday to probe above 1665.00. Now the pattern should hold 1660.00 to maintain its potential for extending up to 1684.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The outperformance vs. Gold was on clear display Friday as Gold recovered intraday back to prior highs, while Silver extended sharply higher to fresh highs. The rally has potential for extending up to 33.55 so long as 31.05 were to hold as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The reaction down from 145-10‘s resistance persisted into the weekend. Extending lower Friday to probe under 142-05 further confirms that a much more sizable decline is underway, targeting 140-00, so long as 142-12 were to hold as resistance.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping down Friday to 99.75 and through the 99.40 sell signal extended intraday down to 98.00. That was a prior low, so it offered natural support. Closing under it Monday would confirm a new downleg underway, targeting 95.45 and 91.45.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Holding its ground Friday was no small victory compared to the relentless extended decline. But it did not at all fulfill the (up)crash(down) setup’s expectation for an unusually steep session. Regardless, this market tends to repeat Friday’s behavior on Monday morning, so any strength should be credible for extending higher.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Doesn anyone NOT know about the Natty Gas price slide? And, yet, the slide persists. At least 10 consecutive downdays have been interrupted by only 2 non-consecutive, unproductive updays, ready to trigger my (up)crash(down) setup.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s fresh low testing 80.35 must hold as the pullback’s low to avoid the potential of extending down to 79.30 and potentially 78.05.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping up and extending higher Thursday confirmed Wednesday’s breakout above last week’s high, and the signal triggered lower at 1.2750. The rally is targeting a test of the 1.3050 area, with potential to 1.3333.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s inside day under 1665.00 hid the overnight surge to 1670.60. Its retest intraday up to 1684.00 remains likely so long as pullbacks continue to hold 1647.00 support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh highs overnight persisted into Thursday’s open, before pulling back intraday. The open’s gap above prior highs should attract price higher to resume the rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The consequence to Wednesday morning’s rejection of 145-10 resistance has been developing quickly. Its intraday drop to 144-05 was followed Thursday by another plunge to 142-12. Closing Friday under 142-05 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 140-02. Bounces meanwhile should hold 143’04 to maintain the decline’s momentum.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Like the two prior sessions’ intraday rally efforts, Thursday’s gap up through 102.00 was retraced back into the prior range. Now closing under 99.75 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 99.40. Until then closing above 103.00 would still launch a new rally leg targeting 111.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Despite already having trended down well under prior lows for 1-1/2 weeks, Thursday’s session fell sharply to another new low. The (up)crash(down) setup is stretching the rubber band tightly, either to snap back up sharply, or else to break sharply lower on capitulation.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Is the second time (in a week) the charm for the Euro to reverse up? Last week’s bounce probed resistance too aggressively for being so close to the lows. And a long-standing target was outstanding. Wednesday’s probe of those resistance levels has a better chance to gain traction.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) One more chance at a bottom… Tuesday’s gap up ranged entirely in positive territory, and entirely within Friday’s range. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts, so the only way to extend any higher would have been to gap up above Tuesday’s high. Wednesday’s open did gap up above Tuesday’s high, and probed higher highs in the afternoon. In fact, Wednesday’s close recovered both 1.2750 and 1.2825 resistance. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm whether momentum has actually reversed up, which would be very bullish near-term.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s open gapped down to its lowest levels in two weeks, at 80.85, which had previously served as resistance to the rally. The afternoon’s close under the morning’s low does suggest that sellers are gaining traction. A second consecutive lower close under 80.55 would confirm that momentum has reversed down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1647.00 pullback limit was probed at Wednesday’s open, but held its test. The afternoon rallied back into positive territory, attacking 1665.00 resistance. Just closing above 1659.50 should have been enough to signal the next upleg underway, targeting 1684.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Birds of a feather can sink together, too… Recovering back to the range’s highs Wednesday has allowed Silver to momentarily outperform Gold. This relationship requires that both extend up sharply without delay, or else tumble simultaneously. So, almost any initial strength Thursday would be credible for rallying throughout the day.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Live by “flight-to-safety,” die by it, too… RSIs diverged negatively throughout overnight tests of the 145-10 resistance area. A fresh post-open high was rejected back down to and through Tuesday’s 144-05 opening gap. It was still being tested at the close to avoid signaling momentum reversing back down to last week’s lows. At least, for now.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s gap up did not really extend any higher intraday. True to form, Wednesday’s gap up to a fresh high was retraced back into Tuesday’s range. But Tuesday’s range held the dip, so momentum has not yet reversed down, which would be signaled by closing under 99.40.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Since breaking to new lows under 3.00 two weeks ago, price has tumbled precipitously to new lows at 2.48. In fact, all but two of the last 10 sessions closed lower, and neither of the two non-consecutive gainers recovered a prior high. These conditions happen to form my “crash(up)” setup. Within 1-2 days, this market should print a session whose measurement exceeds any 2-3 cumulative days of the decline. A downday that extends the decline would likely flush out remaining sellers, while an upday would begin the process of forming a bottom.

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