Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday to Wednesday’s 1.7700 close immediately dipped to touch the 1.1735 sell signal. It’s likely to break so long as 1.1790 now holds resistance.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Yet another higher probe above the prior Thursday’s 1305.00 gap — this time, to the 1307.20 buy signal — was retraced ahead of Friday’s open, keeping the door open to resolving down and resuming the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Because of Thursday’s flat confirmation session,a pullback targeting 16.55 before producing an eventual third higher close was likely. An overnight dip to 16.65 was retraced back into Thursday’s range to attack the 16.88 buy signal, before resolving down again into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 142-22 Thursday had at least created a position of strength to help absorb another dip to 142-00. It wasn’t utilized by Friday’s inside day, which could extend higher first, with room up to 145-00 before signaling a new rally leg underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming overnight and into Friday’s open attacked the 66.25 buy signal to within 1 penny before dipping to 65.15. There’s still little or no bullish reason to further delay launching a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap back down to Wednesday’s close didn’t negate Thursday’s gap up, but likely only corrected it. And there’s still room for noise down to 2.85 before suggesting something bigger underway to the downside, instead of producing the third higher close that is still required from the two-week old confirmed breakout.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s Island pattern at 1.1800 didn’t reverse down Thursday under its 1.1745 trigger, but gapped up to its 1.1835 room for noise. .

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s open probed Tuesday and Wednesday’s 1305.00-1306.00 highs. The gap back to last Thursday’s 1305.00 close had been filled already, without extending higher. Thursday’s test also didn’t extend higher, and reacted back down to test 1300.00 as support. Closing beyond either end of Thursday’s range would likely trend in that direction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up through prior highs Thursday dipped post-open but held the 16.80 buy signal as support. The second consecutive higher close confirms Wednesday’s breakout and requires at least an eventual third higher close before another downleg would be reliable.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The gap back down to 142-00 was filled to within 1 tick overnight, which isn’t optimal for actually testing it. So, closing back above 142-22 wouldn’t reverse momentum up, but allows one more intraday dip that’s likely to recover. Dipping without first closing back above 142-22 would be likelier to extend down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
With all current reports freshly past, and their negative reactions holding prior lows, there’s no bullish reason to much delay triggering a recovery underway back above 66.25. Firming Thursday started attacking the trigger to within 20 cents, which should be extended into the weekend if valid.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. A negative knee-jerk reaction down would have been compelling to buy, but the session already gapped up and and only drifted down on the news. At least an eventual third higher close at 3.00 or higher remains outstanding.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged narrowly sideways above the 1.1755 bounce limit, which had reacted down on Monday. The reaction bottomed Tuesday optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s close. So, already resolving up is premature and impatient, and not reliable for extending higher. back under 1.1745 would signal momentum reversing down again.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s bounce had already filled the gap back up to last Thursday’s 1305.00 close, and reacted down intraday. Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s high starts chipping away at its resistance. The bearish pattern needs no further backing-and-filling or other delays in resuming its decline, which start to become bullish.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength retested the 16.55 bounce limit that was tested already Tuesday, and held. Wednesday’s open gapped back up to it, and surged to fresh highs attacking 16.80. Its immediate rejection is not possible, so only closing back under 16.55 Thursday would even begin to signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping back up to the 143-22 sell signal Tuesday had tried to undermine Monday’s break under it. Narrow fluctuation around 143-22 kept the door open to extending Monday’s break. Overnight weakness did that, testing 142-16 support that must now break lower to confirm the trend has reversed down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close API report was greeted from a position of weakness, which didn’t prevent reacting down on the news. Wednesday morning’s EIA report faced the same difficulty and had the same reaction. Avoiding a new low close keeps open the potential for a recovery that would be signaled by closing above 66.25.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength for having “unfinished business above” and holding a pullback test of support at “lower prior highs.” The delay in recovering the dip to lower prior highs is not bullish. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down would be likely to recover.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s reversal down from its 1.1755 bounce limit gapped down Tuesday to 1.1675. That filled the gap back to Friday’s close, and its natural support helped to launch a bounce back up to 1.1740. Another break under Monday’s 1.1688 low would target the gap back down to last Tuesday’s 1.1550 low close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another attack on recent lows down to 1293.50 was recovered through the morning to attack 1305.00, filling the gap back up to last Thursday’s close. The attraction above didn’t require being neutralized, but now there is no excuse to further delay breaking under 1295.00 and resuming the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness down to 16.37 was recovered back into positive territory to test 16.55 resistance. Closing any higher would have been bullish, but delaying the decline’s resumption is not bearish.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow break under the much-tested 143-20 sell signal was retraced immediately by gapping back up to it Tuesday. The rejection wasn’t exploited by firming any further, as the session essentially fluctuated narrowly around 143-20.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight at 64.22 didn’t extend down intraday. While a buy signal can be calculated at 66.25, it’s too late to greet either Tuesday’s post-close API or Wednesday’s EIA reports from a position of strength. So, a negative knee-jerk reaction down can’t be discounted, or its potential to extend down further.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Last Thursday’s gap up to prior highs under 3.00 had not extended or retraced, not until Tuesday’s opening dip filled the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 2.88 close. It can be tested down to 2.85 before signaling something more substantial underway. Meanwhile, at least one more new trend high close remains outstanding.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday and Friday’s failed pre-open rallies were never actually rejected, only retraced, which kept alive the 1.1755 bounce potential. Its eventual test before Monday’s open reacted down sharply to 1.1688, stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Friday’s 1.1672 close. Not actually filling the gap before trying to rally would be premature, and likely to retest recent lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s 1294.00 low was recovered to attack Friday’s 1303.00 high to within $1. Much of it was retraced to turn slightly negative into the afternoon, still needing a fresh low close to confirm momentum has reversed back down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging into Monday’s open tested 16.55 before reversing back down and piercing negative territory under 16.45, still not yet confirming the near-term resolution will resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep, which trades at a 28-tick discount from Jun]… Gapping back down to 142-24 Monday — which had held Tuesday and Wednesday’s pullbacks — eked lower intraday to attack 147-00. A gap there on the way up now offers obligatory support on the way down, but the decline has little if any time to delay resolving down if that’s it’s intent.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The reversal down from having triggered the 67.90 buy signal extended to fresh relative lows Monday testing 64.60. That’s “lower prior highs” from earlier this year, a likely at least to produce an obligatory bounce.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s narrow flat-to-lower range was more confirming to Friday’s own narrow range, than to Thursday’s breakout that still lacks a higher confirming close. A second consecutive higher close would be preferable.