Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday didn’t show any interest in doing what Wednesday failed to do, exceeding through the 1.24355 buy signal. And so it reacted down again back to 1.2390, which should recover without delay if the pattern still intends to resolve up. A deeper pullback could still test 1.2335 before reversing the trend down, but that would likely be only a formality.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s dip to 1344.00 held and recovered back above 1347.25 to keep alive the attraction above to 1361.00-1364.00. Any lower close would invalidate the pattern’s accumulative features and almost reverse the trend down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Essentially testing the rally’s first objective at 17.37 Thursday held as resistance for a shallow intraday reaction down to attack 17.05 as support. Closing any lower would undermine the upside momentum, which otherwise is next targeting 17.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Apparently satisfied with a straight 61.8% retracement that stopped short of its 146-10 potential, the pattern’s reversal down extend Wednesday’s 145-04 sell signal to fresh lows at 143-12. Closing under 143-22 would signal the decline is likely to extend without delay, but closing above 143-22 allows for a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher without delay tested the 69.50 target before Thursday’s regular open, but not intraday which reacted to pierce under Wednesday’s highs down to 68.15. A second consecutive higher close would have put into play an eventual third higher close or more. Failing to produce that setup, while also fulfilling the pattern’s buying pressure, introduces vulnerability to reversing down with little warning.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ongoing distributive behavior in testing the 2.75 bounce limit finally reacted down to test the 2.70 sell signal Thursday. Its initial probe was retraced enough to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. The balance of the session trended back down to fresh lows at 2.66. A second consecutive lower close for confirmation would be helpful, but neutralizing the attraction above is already helpful to reversing the trend back down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” completed its recovery by gapping up Wednesday to test Monday’s 1.2450 high. Closing any higher would confirm the rally had resumed, targeting 1.2510-1.2535.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to gap up Wednesday at fresh recovery highs only ranged sideways intraday, which is still enough to maintain the minimum upside objectives at 1361.00-1364.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight after Tuesday had already filled the gap back up to 16.80 was improved overnight to gap up Wednesday and extend through 17.25, confirming the upside momentum remains intact, next targeting 17.37 and 17.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was too shallow to yet invalidate the corrective bounce targeting 146-10, which was attacked to within a quarter-point Tuesday. But extending down through the noon hour did test the 145-04 sell signal whose break would start to signal a new downleg is underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Coverage has rolled forward to Jun, trading at a 10-cent discount from May] Tuesday’s last-minute trigger of downtrending pivotal resistance was extended overnight to gap up Wednesday, filling the gap back up to Friday’s 67.20 close. Extending through 67.60 confirms the rally is now targeting 69.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday started by still testing the 2.75 bounce limit, which keeps alive the potential for fresh lows down to 2.52. A post-open bounce up to 2.79 was retraced back down to 2.75, maintaining the distributive pattern.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down probed the gap between Friday’s highs and Monday’s lows, there being a gap in between. Back above 1.2435 would resume the rally targeting 1.2510 and 1.2535..

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was recovered Tuesday morning to firm back above 1347.25 and keep alive the recovery attempt, targeting a retest of 1361.00-1364.00, so long as 1344.00 now holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness held above 16.55 to maintain upside momentum, before reversing up Tuesday morning to fulfill the retest of 16.80. The recovery has no requirement to extend, but closing higher Wednesday would all but confirm a bigger rally underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding 145-04 support at Monday’s gap down had recovered to fill the gap back up to Friday’s close, but Tuesday extended the recovery to 146-00, still likely to test at least 146-10 as a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A slightly lower low at 65.60 Tuesday was recovered to fluctuate narrowly around unchanged, not yet reversing the pullback that still has room down to 65.25 before threatening not to resume the rally soon.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating around the 2.75 bounce limit Tuesday keeps alive the potential for resolving down and resuming the decline, although the delay itself could become bullish Wednesday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The gap back up to last Wednesday’s 1.2430 close was filled by Monday’s gap up, which extended to 1.2450. The extension was retraced back down to 1.2430, which must hold as support to maintain the rally’s potential for extending to 1.2480 and 1.2535.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s firming extended coming out of the weekend as Monday morning tested 1353.50. Just closing above 1344.00-1347.25 maintains the 1361.00-1364.00 objective.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A retest of 16.80 was all but completed by Monday morning’s extension of Friday’s bounce back above 16.50-16.55 testing 16.77.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to the 145-04 pullback limit had only firmed intraday, and already probed lower into Monday’s 144-24 open without correcting first to 146-10. Monday’s gap down to 144-24 reacted up to unchanged, keeping alive the corrective bounce potential and its 146-10 target.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s fresh high at 67.65 was probed by a dime Sunday night and then reversed down intraday to test 66.15, all still fluctuating around 66.88 without yet putting into play 69.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap up to 2.75 was probed Monday up to 2.78, then reversed back down to 2.75, which must hold to remain only a temporary corrective bounce.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday was still overlapping 1.2390 like Thursday, and also ranging narrowly around it, ultimately flat-to-higher, keeping alive the likelihood that Thursday’s gap down was only a temporary pullback.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1339.00 test had tried extending down after Thursday’s close and before Friday’s open but still reacted back up above 1344.00 Friday morning, also testing the 1347.25 buy signal. Extending higher would target 1361.00-1364.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Repeated efforts after Thursday’s close to extend down under 16.50 failed, allowing Friday morning to bounce back up above 16.60. Extending higher would target a retest of 16.80.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The corrective bounce potential from Thursday’s test of 145-02 was not very pronounced Friday, but at least the pullback has paused if not ended. Extending higher would target 146-10 before a bigger downleg becomes likely.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Multiple days of hovering narrowly around the 66.88 had already indicated the intent to probe higher, next targeting 69.50. Firming into the weekend may be the breakout that starts the next upleg.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ongoing ranging between 2.65-2.70 finally resolved Friday, but it wasn’t down to retest the decline’s 2.62 target or lower. Friday gapped up and extended to test 2.75, whose recovery could marginalize sellers. I’m suspicious of that, since the gap back to Thursday’s close would want to be filled. Also, the first breakout attempt from an extended narrow range tends to be false.