Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Unfinished business below at the 1.1278 low close’s gap-fill was neutralized Monday morning. Its slow approach, and obligatory support upon actually being tested, suggests that it will be probed before a recovery can be credible.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite originating from Friday’s pre-open touch of the 1291.30 pullback limit, its intraday bounce didn’t persist through the weekend as Monday’s open was greeted by a reaction down to Thursday’s 1293.50 low. The buy signal remains unchanged at 1308.50, but with fresh lows likely first.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday fluctuated entirely within Friday’s range, hovering above the gap back down to Thurdsay’s close. No lower low or retest of the low is required, and the buy signal remains unchanged at 15.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to the 149-11 pullback limit was probed Sunday night down to 149-00 and then lower intraday Monday to attack 148-00. There is room for noise to 147-17/147-25 before even suggesting momentum is reversing down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above all prior highs on Friday had remained untested as “unfinished business” to attract price higher after the weekend. Sunday night did rally back to Friday’s high, and trended higher Monday morning to attack 61.75. Pullbacks must hold 60.55 to maintain upside momentum.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down to a fresh extreme Friday afternoon all but requires a lower low before reversing up can be credible. The setup is usually fulfilled Monday, but gapping up out of the weekend helped to prevent a fresh low intraday. However, the new price action creates a new setup that would form a bottom by closing positive after probing a fresh low intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
An overnight blip-down to 1.1283 attacked the outstanding gap at 1.1278, but didn’t extend as the attraction becomes supportive. Stopping optimistically short of filling the gap continues to suggest it will be probed before a bottom can be considered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight touched the 1291.30 support and bounced to gap up Friday. Without confirming Thursday’s breakout, and closing positive Friday after initially probing lower, almost any strength Monday above 1306.50 would be credible for extending higher.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight retest of Thursday’s 14.95 low formed a Double Bottom that gapped up Friday and attacked 15.20. Which leaves outstanding the gap back down to Thursday’s close, but also fails to confirm Thursday’s breakout. The buy signal is lower to 15.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 149-10 pullback limit was touched before Friday’s open and became support to Friday morning’s hovering. Back above 150-00 would signal the rally had resumed.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying overnight gapped up above prior highs to test 60.55-60.70, creating an anchor to help absorb its reaction back down to 59.75.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Retesting Wednesday’s 2.69 low overnight was unnecessary to forming a bottom, but required closing positive to avoid gaining downside traction that would risk extending the downleg substantially lower. Trending down to a fresh low into the weekend makes Monday likely to probe fresh lows, regardless of its resolution.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout had resumed already, and the decline persisted overnight to extend deeper intraday Thursday to 1.1287. The minimum objective to fill the gap back down to 1.1280 is approaching, and should at least be probed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness opened at or under the 1308.50 prior low (basis Jun) which uptrending momentum had needed to hold. Collapsing under it creates a breakout day that would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close. Flat or higher into the weekend would maintain potential for being a false break. Optimally, Thursday’s intraday break would be recovered entirely overnight to at least hover Friday — which is not an unusual rejection — but would be difficult considering Thursday’s sizable drop. Closing under 1291.00 would signal the decline is extending.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s close under uptrending support was confirmed by a lower close Thursday. A sharply lower close, that expended a lot of selling pressure to retest 15.00 prior lows. Meanwhile, Thursday’s break was the first under 15.28 prior lows, so at least an intraday probe of fresh lows is likely, and probably down to 14.75-14.80, but not necessarily a negative close. Structurally, recovering to close positive from any negative dip would be bullish.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still probing fresh highs overnight up to 150-21, although Thursday’s intraday highs held 150-09. The shallowness at this stage of the rally is sufficient confirmation that optimism remains alive and well. Pullbacks should hold 149-10 to avoid a deeper interim pullback.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing uptrending support at 58.75 Thursday and the recent 58.25 prior lows held, avoiding the 58.00 sell signal. Ultimately recovering to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close neutralized its attraction above, so delayed strength Friday would remain vulnerable to reversing down more deeply.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having bounced intraday Wednesday to touch the 2.75 (basis May) higher prior lows, Thursday’s dip was able to neutralize the attraction at Wednesday’s 2.72 gap down. It held, allowing the setup to resolve differently than the prior outstanding gap below. Closing back above 2.77 would signal the trend reversing up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s correction day had resolved back down to Friday’s lows Tuesday. Fresh lows developed overnight into Wednesday’s open, suggesting the decline has resumed, targeting prior lows.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight was retraced into Wednesday’s open and extended down to 1308.00 support. The rally can’t tolerate much if any further deterioration any lower.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s retest of 15.27 represents a maximum pullback limit before trading any lower would invalidate the upside potential without yet triggering a new signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already probing higher overnight to 150-00 after Tuesday’s shallow pullback held 149-00, suggests the rally intends to extend much higher, so long as 149-00 continues to hold as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only filling the gap back up to 60.00 Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s EIA allowed its negative knee-jerk reaction to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 58.90 close. Which held, along with the same uptrending support that had defined Friday and Monday’s lows, and for which there was no bullish reason to revisit at this stage.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight weakness tested the 2.73 gap down that had yet to be filled from above. Rather than react up, Wednesday’s open gapped down, which greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness that would likely cause an initially favorable reaction up to fail.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still having access to the morning for extending the corrective bounce, Tuesday ranged narrowly back down to Friday’s lows, attacking 1.1350. The timing is unchanged, and extending the decline Wednesday remains likely.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already trending down overnight gapped open to attack the maximum pullback limit, filling the gap back down to Friday’s 1312.00 close or only testing the structure that contains it. Any early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness attacked Friday’s structure containing the gap back to its close. While holding the 15.40 maximum pullback limit keeps alive a path higher, it does require the rally to resume by Wednesday morning.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The adjusted 149-00 pullback limit being tested at Monday’s close was probed overnight down to 148-12, well above its potential to 147-17/147-25 that would at least maintain the uptrend.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s bounce from retesting Friday’s low had extended higher overnight, but it was a post-open surge that filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 60.00 close. Still overlapping the gap and not rejecting does help to maintain upside momentum, but Wednesday’s EIA report is not being greeted from an optimal position of strength.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday to 2.72 under all prior intraday lows should be retested from above to form a durable bottom. It was only attacked intraday Monday, and Tuesday was already firming optimistically. Absent closing above 2.77, a retest of 2.72 Wednesday would help to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.