Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having entrenched the downside by confirming Thursday’s breakout under 1.1465, Monday exploited the opportunity for a corrective bounce. The decline should resume by Tuesday’s close.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s fresh highs suggest again that the rally has resumed, albeit once again needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up hovered at last week’s highs, not quite qualifying as a breakout, but still likely to extend higher intraday in case of any early strength Tuesday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for a pullback down to 147-25 wasn’t even attacked before Monday recovered to probe fresh highs. Closing above 149-04 fulfills the minimum requirement of last week’s confirmed breakout, and requires holding 149-00 support to maintain the upside momentum.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Uptrending support that had coincided with Friday’s 58.25 low was retested Monday, and held. If the pullback limit has held, then Tuesday should hardly delay extending higher to greet Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Otherwise, closing under 58.25 would greet EIA from a position of weakness.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down under Friday’s 2.72 low was retested intraday. The retest held, and launched a bounce that filled the gap up to Friday’s 2.75 close. Closing beyond either end of the 2.71-2.75 range Wednesday — which allows two days to get either done — would be likely to extend in that direction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s rejection of Wednesday’s weak-handed surge had triggered its 1.1465 sell signal, which extended down overnight. Friday morning’s gap down under the original 1.1405 sell signal that was originally avoided and extended down sharply to attack 1.1350. The second consecutive lower close confirmed that at least an eventual third lower close is in-play, but bounces should now hold 1.1425.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight into Thursday’s open retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s intraday drop. The morning held up, trying to probe a little higher. Maintaining the recovery through the close would signal the rally has resumed.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength up to 15.55 retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s intraday drop before returning to Thursday’s 15.38 low. Back above 15.55 is still needed to signal the rally has resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up into a 2-point intraday rally to 149-04confirms what was already being signaled above 146-00 and by holding tests of 145-16 — that a bottom is in. Now it is obvious to the world, so the pattern become vulnerable to another pullback. Room down to 147-17/147-25 would keep alive upside momentum without having to fill gaps down to 146-04 or test “lower prior highs.”

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s failure to confirm Wednesday’s breakout had opened the door to a deeper pullback if Friday did not immediately extend higher. Friday did not immediately extend higher, as overnight weakness under the 59.50-59.75 pullback limit accelerated down to attack 58.25. Coinciding with previously influential uptrending support, Friday’s dip must be rejected immediately back above 59.35 to avoid a deeper pullback targeting 56.50.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Failing to greet Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength by not holding 2.84 Wednesday has extended down again overnight to 2.72. Intraday lows held 2.75, but any lower coming out of the weekend could slide back to 2.72 and lower.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s surge was retraced had originated from a weak base that was likely to fail eventually. It wasted no time as Thursday retraced the surge’s origin, and triggering a sell signal under 1.1465. The gap back up to Wednesday’s close need not be filled, but it could be attacked up to 1.1500.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending Wednesday’s post-close surge overnight gapped up sharply Thursday, but it was all retraced anyway back down to Tuesday’s close. The gap up above all prior intraday highs does create an attraction from below that would want to be filled before any durable reversal were credible.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday held up relatively well intraday for being under pressure throughout. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a new rally leg underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s surge extended higher Thursday, its second consecutive higher close from a multi-session range now confirming a bigger rally leg underway.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower overnight ranging was recovered Thursday to retest Wednesday’s highs. All price requirements have been met, so only a second consecutive higher close can confirm the trend remains intact.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not being greeted from a position of strength. Not from a position of weakness, either, but that didn’t prevent dipping further under 2.84 to test 2.80. Back above 2.84 would once again signal a rally underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still hovering at recent highs ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events. Avoiding the 1.1405 sell signal required almost literally exploding higher to 1.1525, which was the reaction to FOMC. Upside momentum remains intact above 1.1500, and momentum reverses down under 1.1465.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s choppy sideways ranging repeated Wednesday ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events, but surged through last week’s highs to 1316.00 in reaction. The rally has likely resumed, so long as the post-close surge isn’t rejected overnight.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s session was greeted by overnight weakness, but the recent range held ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Surging in reaction tested recent highs up to 15.55, needing a second consecutive higher close Thursday to confirm the trend up has resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
After Tuesday held a test of the 145-16 sell signal as expected, Wednesday’s open gapped back up to the 146-00 buy signal. Neither end of the corridor between signals was broken in time to greet Wednesday’s FOMC events from a position of strength or of weakness. The reaction did immediately recover 146-00 and extend to 147-00. Still, a second consecutive higher close on Thursday would confirm the uptrend had resumed.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing under 59.40 Tuesday after at least touching 59.65 intraday had signaled upside momentum had ended. But room down to the 58.50 reversal signal was used for overnight weakness ahead of Wednesday’s EIA report, which triggered a surge up to fresh highs at 60.20. Its reaction down to 59.50 was recovered back to the high, signaling the uptrend remains intact.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s surge above the 2.84 buy signal may not have been confirmed by a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday, but closing above 2.84 again did offer the next best degree of confidence that the trend has reversed up. .

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight strength again attacked 1.1450 while overlapping Monday’s highs, allowing the sell signal to be raised to 1.1405 from 1.1380. The timing no longer tolerates delaying a break lower.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up above Monday’s highs pierced last week’s intraday highs, but stopped short of the overnight attack on 1312.00. The restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up was still contained within Monday’s range and fluctuating narrowly around the 15.40 buy signal. Almost any initial strength on Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
If not still overlapping the 146-00 buy signal into Tuesday’s open, then the few ticks of strength at least lacked momentum. Which the morning exploited by sending price back down to the 145-16 sell signal. But already having delayed the reaction down, only now testing the sell signal should hold as support and avoid triggering through the close. Regardless, back above 146-00 would tolerate no delay in extending higher if valid.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs pierced the 59.50 room for noise above 59.25 that must be recovered through the close to confirm the rally’s momentum remains intact. Having tested 59.50, closing back under 59.25 would not greet Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength. But a downleg would be signaled back under 58.40.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Surging overnight through the 2.84 buy signal pierced prior highs by 1 penny up to 2.89. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a new upleg is underway.