Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down had held intraday, but it extended lower overnight to gap down Tuesday and test 1.2320 support. Reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes surged back up to Tuesday’s highs, still needing to recover 1.2395 to reverse the trend back up.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not holding 1335.00 Tuesday still requires a close back above 1341.00 to launch a recovery leg. Extending the pullback otherwise has no lower objective in-play. Retesting Tuesday’s 1330.00 low held intraday, and reacted up on FOMC Minutes to test 1338.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding 16.40 Tuesday and only testing it overnight allowed Wednesday to hold the pullback limit. But closing any lower would target fresh lows. The intaday bounce back up above 16.60 reacted up sharply on FOMC Minutes and filled the gap back up to Friday’s ~16.75 close.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower into and out Wednesday’s open greeted the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes at the trading range’s 143-14 lower-end, which was still being tested after the event, having no bullish excuse to further delay recovering the 144-12 buy signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 61.35 bounce limit still being probed at Tuesday’s close was tested as support overnight. The delay in rejecting its recovery makes its actual rejection likely to done aggressively, and any shallower weakness would be more vulnerable to recovery.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up to test the 2.65 prior high had held, still being likely to probe fresh lows before any credible recovery could begin.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s dip to the 1.2435 sell signal was still testing it at the close, but it was broken through the weekend. Tuesday’s open gapped down to test 1.2350. Closing back above 1.2395 would target 1.2530, but under 1.2320 would confirm a new downleg underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A weekend dip to the 1350.50 pullback limit broke lower to greet Tuesday probing 1341.00 which must hold as support to be considered only a temporary pullback. Room for noise down to 1335.00 was tested intraday, creating the urgency for a bullish pattern to recover 1341.00 through Wednesday’s open.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Friday already had suggested the reaction down from 16.95 was not just a temporary pullback. But the pattern can still range sideways so long as 16.40 holds as support — and it was being tested intraday Tuesday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s probe above 144-12 wasn’t maintained through the close to launch a new upleg. Tuesday’s gap down and flat-to-lower ranging kept alive potential to resume the rally, but there’s little bullish excuse to further delay a new upleg.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to APR which trades at a 13-15 cent discount from MAR…] The 61.35 bounce limit’s ongoing test as resistance exited the weekend with similar action, but Tuesday morning firmed to the bounce’s highest levels. Albeit not optimal, there’s room up to 63.00 which still being able to resolve down in a new downleg target 57.05. Otherwise, closing above 63.00 would start to signal a new rally leg already underway targeting 56.90.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to test last week’s 2.65 “prior high” still has the challenge of the prior week’s ”
higher prior lows” at 2.70 while still being likely to probe a fresh low under 2.55 before a durable bottom can form.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday extended to the 1.2435 sell signal but was still overlapping it through the afternoon. Back above 1.2465 would suggest the sell signal’s test had held so that the gap back up to 1.2530 could be filled next.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight attacked the 1366.00 gap up to 1364.40 but dipped back down to spend the day withing Thursday’s range. Post-close selling attacked 1347.00 support, which must hold to keep alive the upside momentum.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s ranging still did not recover 16.80 resistance, and post-close action dipped to Thursday’s 16.60 low. Any lower Monday could attack recent lows.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Restrained optimism through Thursday’s close left no excuse to delay triggering the 144-12 buy signal. It was probed Friday morning but the afternoon mostly fluctuated around it narrowly. Probing above 145-00 would be credible for triggering the signal.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher Thursday night still did not reject the 61.50 bounce limit’s test, which was still being overlapped through Friday afternoon. Back under 59.80 would resume the decline next targeting 57.20.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating narrowly around 2.56 support Friday instead of finally rejecting it suggests that it will be probed, undermining any early strength that might develop Monday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling the bounce’s minimum 1.2435-1.2465 target area Wednesday didn’t prevent probing higher overnight and gapping up Thursday to test 1.2540. There is potential for extending to fresh highs so long as 1.2435 now holds as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already having fulfilled the minimum 1356.00 objective — i.e. filling its gap above — was extended overnight to attack 1360.00, but Thursday traded flat-to-lower down to the rally’s 1350.50 pullback limit.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The rally’s 16.95 target was met at the overnight high, making the pattern more vulnerable to reacting down more obviously. Which the gap down did, extending to 16.60 at session lows. Closing back above 16.70 would reinstate the upside momentum next targeting 17.11.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s retest of Sunday night’s 143-04 target had originated from a position of strength, so Thursday’s bounce back to what is now the buy signal at 144-12 is starting to suggest a bottom is forming.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight probed the 61.50 bounce limit by a nickel before reversing down sharply to 59.80 support. Its reaction back up above Wednesday’s highs must be the corrective bounce’s peak and launch the next downleg targeting 57.20 to maintain the pattern.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the gap Wednesday back down to Monday’s 2.56 close prevented greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. But its resolution wasn’t high enough to reach a position of strength. A blip-down overnight touched 2.53 but the session only ranged narrowly without resolving either way.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s knee-jerk reaction down to CPI filled the gap back to Monday’s close down to 1.2300 and reversed up to retrace the reaction. The reversal extended sharply to 1.2465 resistance, needing to close above 1.2435 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Confirming Monday’s breakout on Tuesday didn’t prevent Wednesday’s knee-jerk reaction down to CPI, even after having probed fresh highs overnight above 1339.00. But the dip to 1319.00 was recovered entirely and well into positive territory attacking 1359.00. Holding 1350.50 as support keeps the rally alive, next targeting 1366.00. Back under 1341.00 would reverse momentum back down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lagging to the upside on Tuesday limited Wednesday’s CPI reaction to Monday’s post-open low. But its recovery participated in probing fresh highs, attacking the minimum 16.95 objective to within a nickel. Holding 16.80 keeps alive momentum to 17.11 and 17.40.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fluctuating around and above 144-12 for a couple of days created a position of strength for the expected retest of Sunday night’s 143-04 low to hold. Wednesday’s CPI reaction probed it down to 149-09, which doesn’t equate to being a buy signal, but now recovering 144-12 would seal a bottom.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s 58.10 low was itself retested at Wednesday’s open. But it didn’t break lower, and only bounced back to 59.80, then higher. It is not a bottoming pattern, but a corrective bounce does have room up to 60.75 before suggesting the downside momentum is lapsing.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s opening weakness filled the gap back down to Monday’s close and held. Thursday’s rally isn’t being greeted from the position of weakness of having “unfinished business below,” but already reversing up would have been bullish.