Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Four consecutive narrowly ranging sessions had broken lower Tuesday. There was no bullish reason for returning to 2-1/2 week old prior lows. Extending lower Wednesday to a second consecutive lower close confirms at least an eventual third lower close is required.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing $10 Wednesday was largely retraced to remain within proximity of the 1312.50 sell signal whose break would target 1291.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce peaked within its 16.50-16.55 limit which held through the close to maintain the lower objective in-play at 16.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun which trades at almost a 1-point discount from Mar]… Tuesday’s gap down to its 143-00 sell signal and ultimate intraday drop had neutralized a couple of lower gaps. Wednesday’s gap up to and through 143-00 firmed into the afternoon, but held the 143-12 bounce limit. The gap back down to last Wednesday’s 141-20 remains outstanding.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s close under the rally’s 63.45 pullback limit extended down Wednesday to fluctuate around the 62.25 sell signal. Still being tested through the close, closing under Wednesday’s 61.75 low Thursday would confirm a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating narrowly Wednesday keeps alive the likelihood for a fresh low before a rally effort would be credible. That’s not necessarily greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, but neither is it a position of weakness, so recovering a fresh low would be likely to extend higher into and out of the weekend.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Four sessions spent ranging around 1.2320 had already missed the earlier opportunity to reject the drop that began the ranging. Tuesday’s break lower to the two-week old 1.2235 prior low, which has no bullish reason to be retested.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rejecting Sunday night’s surge before Monday’s open, and then stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Friday’s close, had made fresh lows likely. Tuesday morning’s reaction to the new Fed chair’s testimony triggered a break under last week’s 1325.00 low, attacking the two-week old prior lows at 1313.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Breaking under 16.40 Tuesday puts into play a retest of the prior low at 16.15 and its gap outstanding there. Meanwhile, an intraday bounce can test 16.45 without reversing momentum up so long as the close is back under 16.40.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday under 143-30 only briefly blipped-down before bouncing 1 point to retest the 144-12 bounce limit as resistance. Its reaction down to fresh lows filled the gap back down to Thursday’s 143-06 close. Still outstanding is the gap back down to Wednesday’s 142-20 close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having fulfilled its minimum requirement for at least one more higher close on Monday, Tuesday’s dip under the 63.45 pullback limit. There’s still room down to 62.25 before triggering a reversal down that takes off the table a higher high up to 57.05.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to May, which trades at a 1-cent discount to Mar]… Still hovering under 2.69 keeps alive the likelihood of at least momentarily probing a fresh low under 2.54 before a recovery effort would be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow fluctuation around 1.2320 for a fourth consecutive session further confirms the pattern has lost its momentum. But the delay in rejecting its prior week’s drop from 1.2530 also suggests that fresh lows are yet to come.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying Sunday night to attack 1343.00 barely managed to open at 1340.00 before sliding back under 1332.00. Stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s 1330.50 close suggests fresh lows remain likely before any credible rally attempt. But closing back above 1335.00 might still get a benefit of the doubt for launching a new rally leg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s initial surged to 16.72 held week-old resistance at an outstanding gap. Monday’s open was back at or under last week’s ~16.65 prior highs, and briefly pierced negative territory 20 cents lower. That filled the gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction, so actually closing above 16.70 would be credible for launching the new upleg that Sunday night’s surge had tried.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up again Monday touched 144.27 before dipping back under 144-12, which must hold as resistance to continue being only a temporary corrective bounce. Closing back under 144-30 and 143-26 would be likely next to test 143-06 and 142-18.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher Monday to attack 64.25 was on-track to already fulfill the minimum third consecutive higher close required by Thursday’s confirmed breakout. Potential to 67.05 remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 63.45 as support.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s narrow ranging only further delays the likely probe of fresh lows under 2.55 that would likely not extend down, but which the pattern all but requires before any recovery effort can be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s early blip-up above 1.2320 never extended higher intraday. Friday’s open blipped-back down but never extended down. The burden of proof is on buyers, so the pattern is more vulnerable to extending down further.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Little movement intraday Friday is not helpful in trying to reject Wednesday’s dip. Closing back above 1335.00 would still be credible for launching a recovery, but it is no more likely.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing into Friday’s open stopped short of triggering a recovery, which keeps the pattern in the vicinity of its 16.50 sell signal whose trigger would target a retest of prior lows.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce extended higher overnight and into Friday afternoon to 144-05, still leaving “unfinished business below” at the gap back down to Wednesday’s 142-20 close. Back under 143-12 would signal the bounce had ended.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher again Friday confirmed Thursday’s breakout from the recent range, putting into play at least an eventual third higher close, and probably also a test of 67.05. Pullbacks meanwhile should be limited to testing 61.35, although there isn’t any bullish reason for any more backing-and-filling before extending higher.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still hovering flat-to-lower into the weekend avoided closing the week at a new low close, but also avoided the bullish setup of recovering from probing fresh lows intraday — and at least probing fresh lows intraday remains very likely, if not also required before a recovery would be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s late dip under 1.2395 was recovered at Thursday’s open. But not extended, as price hovered just above it.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The post-close reaction down from Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes did produce a gap down Thursday, but it was recovered entirely to range around unchanged, hovering just under the 1335.00 buy signal that remains valid if triggered.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting the 16.40 sell signal overnight was recovered into a shallower gap down Thursday, which was retraced entirely to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close and to probe above Wednesday’s highs. Closing above Thursday’s 16.66 high would launch a new upleg.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Trending down to fresh lows in reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes had closed at 142-20. Thursday’s gap up extended to 143-18, but closing under 143-14 maintains the downside momentum, and the attraction to filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping down to 60.75 overnight had recovered to greet Wednesday’s EIA report at 61.35. Its reaction surged to fresh highs above 63.00. Not resuming the decline back under 61.35 for so long has been rewarded. Closing higher Friday would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still ranging narrowly through Thursday’s EIA report is not strength, especially so long as 2.70 holds as resistance, and the pattern remains likely to probe fresh lows.