Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday had fulfilled the decline’s requirement to completely retrace the last upleg from 1.1845. Wednesday extended the decline anyway, coming attacking its 1.1760 next lower target.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Tuesday off of 1298.50 “lower prior highs” was followed naturally Wednesday by gapping down through 1293.50 prior lows and probing lower to attack 1285.00. Attractions down to 1280.00 are in-play so long as Thursday doesn’t close positive.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight extended down Wednesday morning to attack prior lows, next targeting the 16.50 area.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeatedly holding 154-30 resistance finally reacted down Tuesday night, and aggressively. Gapping down to the 153-14 prior low probed ranged choppily intraday at or under last week’s low, needing to hold for the retest for a bottom to form.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
API and EIA weren’t greeted from the position of strength of a confirmed breakout. But reactions to the news items didn’t extend down, suggesting that Monday’s breakout intends to try extending again even without confirmation.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday created a gap back down to Tuesday’s close that will want to be retested. Trending up so early to already test the 2.98 bounce limit suggests its test is sponsored by weak hands. Thursday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength, so a knee-jerk reaction up would have to close aboev 3.02 to be credible for extending higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s test of the ~1.2030 corrective bounce limit had resolved down into the weekend. Germany’s election results triggered a gap down Sunday that extended back to Wednesday’s 1.1917 low Monday morning. And lower, attacking 1.1885, probably on the way to test 1.1845.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Volatility was subdued Sunday night, still needing to test or fluctuate around Thursday’s gap down low. That lower attraction also dooms to failure any interim bounce. We’ll soon see, since N. Korea’s war speech triggered a surge to attack 1314.00. That could be the bounce’s peak, if not 1318.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still fluctuating Monday morning at or under 17.00 was one step closer to forming a bottom. But N. Korea war talk triggered a spike up to test 17.15 resistance that leave at least one fresh low outstanding.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Sunday night was still below the 154-30 buy signal and within proximity of retesting the 153-14 support. N. Korea war talk triggered a “flight-to-safety” whose spike up tested 154-30, anyway. But not closing above it keeps alive the 153-14 potential.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Other verbally bellicose escalation came from Turkey, sending Crude Oil to fresh highs above its recent multi-session range. Holding the 50.00 sell signal last week was rewarded by probing fresh high up to 51.95s. A second consecutive higher close on Tuesday would confirm Monday as a breakout. Closing back within the recent range could reverse back under 50.00 quickly.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Sunday night up to 2.96 didn’t prevent Monday morning from probing under Friday’s lows down to 2.91, targeting 2.84.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge was further retraced Thursday night, testing its 1.2030 corrective bounce limit up to 1.2059. Dipping into the afternoon stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Thursday’s close, still likely to resume the decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The overnight reaction to new N.Korea missile threats was muted, suggesting that pessimism remains alive and well. A recovery attempt wouldn’t yet have been credible, anyway. But fresh lows into the weekend in Gold are rarely a bottom.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging overnight around 17.00 was even narrower intraday Friday. The consolidation of Wednesday’s break may have been extended as a weekend hedge against missiles flying, but has no other reason to avoid extending the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight to retest 154-16 still stopped short of the 154-30 buy signal that would reverse the trend up. So, the door remains open to a more thorough test of the decline’s 153-14 maximum pullback limit to form a more durable bottom.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The narrowest intraday range since last Friday, which had also developed around 50.50, didn’t suggest the current basing is inclined to launch a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s plunge to 2.95 didn’t extend down Friday, but neither was it rejected, let alone recovered. And avoiding an extension down to 2.84 all but required a quick reversal back up above 3.02. Having avoided a second consecutive lower close, recovering 3.02 through Monday morning could still be credible for extending higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction ultimately extended down to 1.1917, completing a 61.8% retracement of the recent rally. The rally’s complete retracement to at least test it 1.1745 low is likely, while bounces hold 1.2025-1.2040.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Wednesday’s FOMC from under 1318.50 wasn’t a position of strength. The reaction plunged to fresh lows that extended lower overnight and Thursday morning to 1291.20. Bounces should hold 1302.50 while the decline extends to test 1288.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering under the 17.30 buy signal Tuesday reacted down sharply to Wednesday’s FOMC, testing 17.00 support Thursday down to 16.88. Bounces should hold 17.30 before a bottom can form.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s attack on 153-14 support reacted up Thursday to test 154-16. The bounce had room up to 154-30 but reacted back down to unchanged. A retest of Wednesday’s low is likely signal before signaling the trend reversing back up, but also likely to hold.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s failed probe of last week’s high extended down only slightly overnight, and ranged narrowly Thursday. Closing under 50.00 would be the first step to reversing the trend down. But any new high close above 51.00 would signal the rally is extending.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pullback’s room down to 3.02 was tested soon after Thursday’s 3.07 open. The reaction to EIA extended down to 2.95. This seriously undermines the ongoing bottoming pattern, or at least its near-term potential to avoid a deeper drop to 2.84.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending higher again overnight had reacted down ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC events, testing the Pivotal Uptrending Support that has defined the past week’s rally. And yet another reaction up probed a fresh high at 1.2092. The FOMC reaction plunged back into Monday’s range at 1.1985, Extending down immediately isn’t required, but 1.1945 is the next lower attraction.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1310.50 as support again Tuesday wasn’t the most bullish position for greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events. Already closing above 1318.50 would have been more bullish, but it was only tested overnight, and held intraday ahead of the post-close news. The knee-jerk reaction spiked down $11 to test this week’s lows around 1308.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight had probed the 17.30 buy signal that had avoided triggering Tuesday. But extending to test 17.50 didn’t prevent a reaction down from attacking 17.25.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s open wasn’t greeted optimistically, as price continued testing 154-04 as support. Its test probed its lowest levels down to 153-29. Not yet recovering any relevant resistance ahead of the FOMC events Knee-jerk reaction to the news probed slightly lower momentarily.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward today to Nov, which trades at a 40-cent premium to Oct…] Overnight and morning action remained within Tuesday’s range. But Wednesday’s open gapped up to Monday’s close and the morning extended back up to last week’s high, where a higher close would signal the rally had resumed

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging had started giving way overnight, with plenty of room below to expend selling pressure without it damaging the bullish chart. Testing 3.10 Wednesday still had room to 3.07 or 3.02 before suggesting momentum reversing down.