Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bullish Inside Day and its intraday touch of uptrending support helped to clear the path for surging overnight, through the 1.1345 confirmation that the low’s inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is underway. Its nearest likely targets are 1.1395 and 1.1440 .

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight helped to set the tone for not extending Thursday’s collapse, and instead to maintain it being only a rogue leg in the ongoing pattern of false starts and stops. Closing back above 1291.50 is still needed for confirmation, if not also to re-trigger another rally leg underway targeting recent highs at 1313.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already bouncing overnight underscored how much Thursday’s drop had approached the precipice without falling over. But closing back above relevant resistance at 15.15 is needed to avoid the drop from making a second attempt at extending down. Friday’s inside day won’t have much influence past the weekend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s rejection of Wednesday’s 148-16 resistance test had reacted down to uptrending pivotal support at 147-22, and extended down overnight to and soon through the 147-22 sell signal. The sell signal is now resistance, but a second consecutive lower close is still needed to confirm the trend is reversing down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attack on the 63.20 pullback limit rallied overnight to essentially fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s 64.50 close, which was also filled intraday. The gap-fill held, but the ongoing 65.00-67.00 target remains intact.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The negative knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report kept price under pressure intraday and Friday. But the preferable pullback objective at 2.65 was met and held. And avoiding a new low close allows a credible recovery above 2.71.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s impressive recovery from its early dip down to uptrending support that closed positive, failed to extend higher Thursday. Not for lack of trying, with the open having firmed. One day of consolidating the prior session’s Outside Day can be dismissed, but the rally must be underway into the weekend if the bottom is valid.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down into negative territory already failed to trigger an early buy signal. Extending down sharply intraday Thursday under the original 1301.50 buy signal makes the rally’s immediate resumption no less urgent to avoid another deep pullback intraday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thurdsay’s gap down under the 15.15 buy signal probed two week old lows down to 14.85. The pattern cannot tolerate any lower close. Only an immediate recovery would be credible for launching a new rally leg, and any delay would start making lower lows likelier.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s test and retest of the 148-16 buy signal had never triggered, and wasn’t attempted again on Thursday. Meanwhile, its pullback fell down to the lower-end of uptrending pivotal support, where any second consecutive lower close on Friday would resume the rally.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still not testing the 64.75 overnight highs, let alone the long outstanding 65.00 target, Thursday’s dip attacked the 63.20 pullback limit. Regardless of whether it is probed intraday, a higher close Friday may be the only near-term path to fulfill the pattern’s target.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from a position of strength. Positive territory was never probed. Its intraday pullback has satisfied any attraction below so that closing above 2.71 would new highs.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Triggering its inverted Head & Shoulders pattern Monday by closing above 1.1320 had failed to confirm by only holding a test Tuesday of 1.1345 resistance. Not extending higher immediately was vulnerable to reacting down, which Wednesday did in the wake of ECB events. The low under 1.1295 intersected with the pattern’s uptrending support, reacting back up to touch 1.1345, keeping very much alive the inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Wednesday morning retested Tuesday’s highs, which had formed while fluctuating narrowly around Monday’s highs. Fresh recovery highs were probed into the close. Almost any higher close and/or early strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher into and out of the weekend. Delaying higher highs would remain vulnerable to a deeper retracement.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up to Monday’s highs was ultimately retraced to test negative territory. All of which was recovered early Wednesday but not extended before or after the close. A valid recovery would make itself obvious without delay Thursday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday probed Tuesday’s retest of 148-02 resistance by testing the 148-16 buy signal. Uptrending pivotal support is intersecting with resistance on Thursday and Friday, so any early strength would be credible for extending higher at a steep slope. Pullbacks still have room down to 147-24.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Wednesday probed Tuesday’s highs, but still only attacked Tuesday’s pre-open highs that had stopped 25-cents short of fulfilling the long-standing 65.00 target.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Another shallow dip above 2.65-2.67 was recovered and 2.71 was only pierced Wednesday, greeting Thursday’s EIA report not from a position of weakness, but also not quite from a position of strength.