Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 17, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ reports are neither high-profile nor influential to price action. But the afternoon heats up with two Fed speakers and Beige Book data.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s gap up and surge to fresh recovery highs was the inverted Head & shoulders second breakout attempt. A second consecutive higher close to confirm would be helpful, but not necessary, so long as reactions don’t break back under a relevant support. Monday’s gap up didn’t extend, but its reaction held Friday’s intraday lows to maintain its upside momentum.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Monday’s open under Friday’s lows did hold a test of the two-week old 1285.00 low that had launched the interim rally to 1315.00. Back above 1295.00 would signal the retracement was done and momentum is reversing back up. Otherwise, a fresh low close on Tuesday would be difficult to recover this week.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s drop gapped down to Thursday’s 14.85 low and consolidated, but surged out of the morning back up to Friday’s 14.98 close. The gap down doesn’t require being filled because it overlapped prior prior action. Closing above 15.00 would signal the drop had likely ended.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow unchanged ranging persisted from Sunday night through Monday, barely attempting to reject Friday’s break lower from Thursday’s dip. Bounces are likely to fail.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 63.00 pullback limit that was attacked Thursday to within 20 cents, was probed briefly Monday. Interim price action had filled the 65.00 gap, so closing lower would threaten the 62.00 sell signal.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite avoiding fresh lows into the weekend, the weekend’s exit probed new lows. Sunday night gapped down to prior lows and Monday morning trended lower. No immediate recovery attempt would be credible for extending.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 16, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is staggered, but with reports that are neither high-profile nor reliably influential to price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report. The afternoon’s Fed speaker may hit the tape with comments that enhance volatility.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
2:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/13/19) …No man is an island. Was Friday?
Friday’s gap up from a multi-session flat-to-higher range was a breakout. Closing (almost) at the opening print suggests Friday’s trending was no different than the multi-session range preceding it. What does that mean for the rally, how might it resolve, and what are the signs of each setup? This week’s Saturday Review addresses those questions, and many great questions posed by attendees.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WFC, JPM, BAC, GS, MS, NFLX, CSX, MMM, T, IBM UTX, SYMC, BIIB, PEP, TEAM, LVS, ISRG, HON
transcript
—————– (04/13/2019 09:31) —————–
Adam 2: hi
—————– (04/13/2019 09:33) —————–
jp: gm
ljr: gm
David B: Good Morning
Adam 2: gm
Rod David 2: Welcome to Saturday Review, please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Bill G 2: gm
ljr: wondering if there is a globex gap that needs tested from below
Mark G: gm
—————– (04/13/2019 09:48) —————–
ljr: seems like lots of people think this can’t keep going and things are frothy… also seems timely for all these new ipos at a potential top
—————– (04/13/2019 09:52) —————–
Bill G 2: Fri open still needs to be tested from below?
—————– (04/13/2019 09:58) —————–
Mark G: are we in a sequence of 10 up days with 1 or 2 counter-trends and early next week might be a resolution?
ljr: we’re so close to all time highs… seems like we “should” at least touch them
—————– (04/13/2019 10:03) —————–
ljr: i guess it turned out to fridays open
ljr: the globex gap
—————– (04/13/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: when a top starts to form is usually the dow outperforms.?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:06) —————–
Mark G: looks more like a range even though pointed higher
David B: earnings have been lowered so much it seems like companies beating will continue this market higher?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:10) —————–
Mark G: can 2928 qualify as proxy for 2941?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:17) —————–
Bill G 2: In regards to David’s question on tops: several years ago Jason at Sentimentrader did a study to test the order of major major indexes reaching tops and found no consistency to which index hit top first.
—————– (04/13/2019 10:20) —————–
ljr: any changes to expiry/wedex this week?
ljr: stocks: NFLX,CSX,IBM, UTX (earnings tues)
ljr: stocks: PEP, TEAM, LVS (earning wed)
ljr: stocks: ISRG, HON (earn thurs)
ljr: i have to go, but will watch rest of recording later
ljr: thc
ljr: thx
Mark G: Nxt being a short week would you expect a down turn to happen early enough like by Tue afternoon if it intends to happennext week?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:24) —————–
David B: this week with the market closed on friday and options expiration does the wedex play out on thursday afternoon and monday morning?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:30) —————–
David B: MMM,T
—————– (04/13/2019 10:39) —————–
David B: MMM has not reallly participated in the market rally is that a concern?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:41) —————–
David B: same concern
David B: T
David B: SYMC,BIIB
—————– (04/13/2019 11:04) —————–
Bill G 2: Thanks
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!