Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite having held 1.1340 support on Tuesday, Wednesday’s gap up didn’t extend higher. An overnight plunge to 1.1300 explained why. That was extended Thursday morning to attack 1.1280, which had been the original decline’s target. Resuming the rally requires closing back above 1.1320.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s slightly lower low at 1273.00 might extend, but it has fulfilled the minimum requirement for allowing a bottom or reversal to form. But not on the same day as a new low, so the nearest buy signal at 1293.50 won’t be lowered until Sunday night.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Thursday only flirted with the 15.00 buy signal, clearly inhibited by Gold’s flat-to-lower ranging at fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Wednesday morning off of a fresh low at 146-00 had closed flat, and that extended to 147-00 Thursday where another gap and “higher prior lows” provided resistance. Any initial weakness coming out of the weekend should complete the 145-24 pullback objective before a more durable recovery can be credible.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s weakness tested the adjusted 63.75 pullback limit, fluctuating around it intraday. The sell signal will be raised to 63.20 coming out of the weekend, but meanwhile the rally’s pullback should prove it has ended if the longstanding 65.00-67.00 target remains in-play.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fulfilling the minimum required third lower close of Monday’s breakout did not equate to being a buy signal. In fact, it greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. And the pattern enters the weekend at fresh lows, its first in several weeks, all but requiring that Monday also probe a fresh low before a recovery can be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the overnight dip was barely dismissed for delaying the rally’s resumption. Its complete recovery overnight gapped up to compensate for the delay. But not extending higher intraday Wednesday once again is barely dismissed for not extending the rally. Fresh highs into the weekend would be appropriate for the ongoing inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s flat-to-lower ranging didn’t reject Tuesday’s break under prior lows, but neither did it confirm a new low close would be required. Only an intraday fresh low would be required before a buy signal can trigger.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still fluctuating sideways while momentarily piercing the 15.00 buy signal doesn’t prevent the decline from resuming. Optimally, a recovery would be underway into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday was the last day of a four-day sequence that alternates a break lower with a non-confirmation session. So, Tuesday’s second break lower wasn’t confirmed Wednesday. More so, Wednesday first probed a fresh low, so recovering positive territory starts to suggest buyers are arriving. The pattern’s pullback still targets 145-24.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s API wasn’t greeted from a position of strength. It was greeted by firming overnight to fresh recovery highs since last retesting the 63.20 pullback limit. The ultimate resolution was to retrace overnight gains. But momentum didn’t reverse down, keeping alive the nearby 65.00-67.00 target.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s confirmed breakout had required at least an eventual third lower close before any buy signal could be confirmed. Wednesday’s continued downtrending has already produced it. The session began by gapping down under all prior lows, so a bottom cannot form on Thursday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping overnight under Friday’s 1.1355 low to 1.1340 was recovered to open flat with Monday’s 1.1360 close. Eventually an intraday dip retested 1.1340. Lower prior highs there held, and should no longer delay resuming the rally if the rally signal remains valid.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already testing Monday’s 1285.00 low overnight, gapping down there plunged another $10 to 1275.50. The pattern qualifies as a breakout that must avoid a second consecutive lower close or else launch a new downleg.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday within Monday’s range didn’t break prior lows while forming an Inside Day. Closing back above 15.00 would launch a rally leg, probably requiring Gold not to confirm Tuesday’s break.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday resumed the decline that was officially signaled under 147-14 Friday after holding a test of 148-16‘s buy signal last Wednesday. The decline has room down to 145-24 while still being a pullback of the massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that recently launched its first upleg.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing the 63.20 pullback limit for a second consecutive session on Tuesday began choppily, eventually bouncing into the afternoon. Optimally, the rally would have resumed already to better ensure reaching the pattern’s 65.00-67.00 target area. But EIA is not being greeted from a position of weakness, so almost any strength Wednesday morning would be credible for extending higher.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing fresh lows again Tuesday has confirmed Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range, now requiring at least an eventual third lower close before any recovery can be credible.