Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s plunge from the ECB news extended down overnight to fulfill the pattern’s minimum objective of filling the gap outstanding from its 2-week old low at 1.1550 and probing under it down to 1.1545. That was largely recovered back into positive territory overnight for an intraday low of only 1.1585, which is not a buy signal.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s failure to close above its 1207.00 buy signal wasn’t itself a sell signal, but it allowed raising the sell signal from 1296.50 to 1301.00. Which is where Friday’s gap down opened, and then plunged to sharply lower lows at 1278.00. Bounces should hold 1284.00 while maintaining the new downleg’s momentum next targeting 1273.00 and 1260.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling two gaps simultaneously Thursday at 17.20-17.30 without trending up intraday had indicated a pullback was likely, probably down to 16.80. Already trending down overnight extended to probe under “lower prior highs” at 16.55 by nearly a dime. Closing back above 16.65 would signal the decline’s momentum is lapsing, but not yet reversing up until also closing back above 16.80. Extending the decline would target 15.80 and 15.25.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight above the 143-16 buy signal extended intraday to 144-10. Its reaction down should hold 143-24 to maintain the recovery’s upside momentum.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still fluctuating narrowly within the 66.25-66.75 buy signals couldn’t yet ensure absorbing a reaction down that might be produced by impatience from delaying the rally. That impatience arrive Friday morning by dropping back down to 65.60. Friday breakouts in Crude are less credible, so a recovery remains possible if not also likely so long as Monday doesn’t extend Friday’s dip.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already firming overnight to retest the minimum objective at 3.00 gapped up through it Friday morning. This qualifies as a breakout from a multi-session range, so any bearish resolution must avoid confirming with a higher close on Monday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing back to resistance overnight didn’t prevent the reaction to Thursday’s ECB statements from plunging through the 1.1745 sell signal to fresh lows attacking 1.1590, probing into the 3-week old low’s session and targeting the gap back to that session’s 1.1550 close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s tests of the 1296.50 sell signal had recovered to the range’s 1307.00 upper-end, which was probed overnight up to 1313.00, but held intraday Thursday.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already extending higher after Wednesday’s close in reaction to the FOMC events, higher highs were probed overnight to gap up Thursday morning. Two-month old gaps up to 17.20-17.30 were tested, with no requirement to extend any higher before a pullback to 16.80.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The FOMC reaction’s dip to 142-02 Wednesday was recovered overnight and probed the 143-16 buy signal intraday Thursday.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still firming overnight to attack the upper-end of 66.25-67.25 resistance, Thursday morning’s shallow reaction down held the range’s lower-end to keep alive its buy signal.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength, which wasn’t exploited intraday as the session only ranged narrowly around 2.95.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s dip to the 1.1745 sell signal reacted up again Wednesday, shallowly at the open with only a little follow-through before the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The reaction dropped back down to 1.1745, almost greeting Thursday’s ECB monetary statement from a position of weakness.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ongoing fluctuation between 1296.50-1307.00 had retested the range’s lower-end by $2 overnight. It held intraday, and was attacked again after the close in reaction to the FOMC policy statement.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another shallow reaction down overnight from the 16.95 target stopped short of the 16.80 sell signal before recovering to gap up slightly Wednesday and test fresh highs at 17.00. The post-close FOMC reaction dropped back down to attack Tuesday’s 16.85 close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging persisted through Wednesday morning ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement wasn’t much different from the post-FOMC price action. Perhaps a little weaker, and still having potential to test 142-00 as support.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Post-close weakness from the API report was temporary. Wednesday’s gap down was shallow, and reacted up to a fresh recovery high attacking 66.90 after the morning’s EIA report and the afternoon’s FOMC statement. There is no bullish excuse to further delay the rally becoming obvious.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday night’s test of 2.98 was attacked intraday Wednesday. The minimum target of 3.00 and the minimum objective of at least one more new trend high close remain outstanding. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.