Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Powell and Draghi speak at a conference in Portugal, which is easily the most influential item for Wednesday. It may also be the only influential item, since the others have no reliable track record for influencing price action. Still , any reaction to a pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction the post-open report — especially since the post-open report is the second Housing sector report this week.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s dip down to 1.1645 probed Friday morning’s low, but still held well above Thursday night’s 1.1620 low. Back above 1.1710 would start to trigger a corrective bounce, but meanwhile a durable bottom has not formed.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bounce potential up to 1284.00 held its tests before and after Monday’s open, trading flat-to-lower through the afternoon, remaining vulnerable to resuming the decline.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.65 bounce limit was attacked Sunday night before reversing down into Monday’s open. A momentary fresh low only traded flat-to-lower through the afternoon.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Blipping up at Monday’s open was reversed back into negative territory to test 143-16 as support. Holding its test keeps alive potential for recovering 143-24 to resume the recovery.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug which trades at a 15-20 cent discount to Jul]… Sunday night’s bounce came after absorbing lower lows overnight. Extending higher intraday tested the 65.65 buy signal, which can’t afford to delay triggering without resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rejecting Friday’s breakout is the only near-term path down, and Monday’s gap down and extension back to 2.95 tried. Closing under 2.95 would confirm, but meanwhile closing back above 3.00 would suggest the rally was resuming.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar isn’t entirely bare, but neither report has a track record for influencing price action. Any reaction to the pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction the post-open report.
James Bullard Speaks
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/16/18) …Turning point.
This week closed unchanged from last Friday, but that’s a deceptively neutral characterization of the market. Actually, the week began with a rally that quickly peaked at what would be the week’s high. Four sessions ranged choppily sideways, supported by last Friday’s high/close. Then Friday’s gap extended down test last Friday’s low, and barely recovered to unchanged.
Maybe neutral isn’t a terribly wrong characterization. But it lacks two important pieces of context. That it was a contrast to the rally preceding it, and that it hovered around the maximum for being only a corrective leg.
Last week’s Saturday Review listed the litany of risks, influences and distractions that formed a minefield to cross. Perhaps ending neutral on the week is a success for the rally. But a lot of buying pressure was expended to maintain neutral, without gaining traction for the effort. Was it distribution? Did Friday’s dip satisfy the distribution? How will we know the difference on Monday?
These questions and more are addressed during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ORCL, MU, AMTD, SQ, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, TSLA
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!