Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing the already tested 1.1625 target overnight down to 1.1582 was limited to gapping down and then rallying through Thursday morning. The gap back up to Monday’s 1.1700 close was filled, as was likely at some point. Closing above 1.1710 would start to signal momentum reversing up, but back under 1.1670 could put into play a retest of Wednesday night’s low.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down $11 overnight was already firming into Thursday’s open, and improved further through the morning to 1271.00. None of which is accumulative, but the bounce has room up to 1276.00 just as noise.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Eking out only slightly lower lows down to 16.20 overnight continued to outperform Gold, and only traded narrowly around unchanged Thursday. The gap back up to Monday’s 16.45 close and “higher prior lows” there could be tested just as noise.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing back under the 143-16 buy signal overnight to attack 143-00 was recovered entirely before Thursday’s open, and intraday action bounced slightly. But there is no new signal or implied strength from the leg.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back down Thursday to Wednesday’s low also retested Wednesday’s gap-fill of Tuesday’s 64.90 close. It held again, and the 65.65 buy signal was retested. OPEC headlines continued to permeate the environment, and would make closing beyond either signal initially suspicious until confirmed the following day.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up essentially filled the gap back up to last Friday’s 3.02 close. That still wasn’t greeting the EIA report from a position of strength, since the upside attraction was now neutralized. In fact, the knee-jerk reaction to EIA was a collapse back down to 2.95. That also filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s close, so any bearish scenario should develop without further delay of valid.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down retesting the 1.1625 target was not extended intraday. Tuesday’s narrow ranging neither extended Monday’s drop nor rejected it. Much more delay in resolving either way will make a more durable resolution down likely.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already retesting Tuesday’s 1274.00 low before Wednesday’s open, the balance of the session eked flat-to-lower. Resuming the decline from this stage of the pattern should begin abruptly if valid.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s narrowly ranging inside day was difficult to form inside of Tuesday’s already narrow range. Despite the seeming calm on its surface, still not rejecting the decline by Thursday’s close would likely extend down further at an accelerated pace.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” was retraced overnight for Wednesday’s open to retest Monday’s 143-20 close. The pattern’s 143-16 buy signal remained intact, but must be productive without any further delay to remain valid.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back up Wednesday to the 65.65 buy signal ranged widely around it intraday — swinging 65-cents in either direction, and ultimately recovering back above it. The signal needs confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Thursday. Because Wednesday’s session ranged more so than trended, not already rallying at Thursday’s open would suggest that Wednesday’s buy signal will be rejected.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.95 Wednesday retraced Tuesday’s gap down, but didn’t reject it. Being unconfirmed, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength. Closing higher Thursday would be bullish, unless the gap back up to Friday’s 3.02 close were filled without closing above it.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s overnight test of the 1.1625 target was tested intraday for the first time at Tuesady’s open. The gap back up to Monday’s 1.1700 close requires eventually being filled. The balance of the morning bounced to 1.1665, maintaining what is now the bounce limit at 1.1675.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held a test of the 1284.00 bounce limit Monday, the decline was free to resume, which it did overnight down to 1272.50. Its reaction up held Friday’s “higher prior lows” at 1278.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce attempt was shallow and brief and settled under uptrending support at 16.45. Trending down overnight to 16.25 was recovered through the morning up to 16.37, maintaining the decline’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow gap up was retraced to the 143-16 buy signal, which launched an overnight rally to fresh recovery highs at 144-25. Its reaction down tested Friday’s 144-10 high as support.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight, after Monday had held the 65.65 buy signal, probed Friday’s low for a 61.8% retracement of the bounce from Sunday night’s 63.40 low. Just closing under 64.10 would signal that Friday’s break under 66.10-66.30 is extending into a new downleg. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s breakout had satisfied the outstanding requirement for at least one more new high close. Reacting down Monday avoided confirming the new breakout. But holding 2.95 had prevented signaling that momentum is reversing down. Extending down overnight now triggers that signal, but requires its own second consecutive lower close Wednesday to confirm — or else Thursday’s EIA report won’t be greeted from a position of weakness.