Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping Sunday night back to Friday’s test of the 1.1700 sell signal was recovered to gap up Monday to test 1.1775. The sell signal could be raised to 1.1725, at least a preliminary signal that must still break under 1.1700 to reverse the trend back down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s shallow dip retraced 61.8% back down to Thursday’s low, which didn’t acknowledge the overnight low that had preceded it. This qualifies as “ineffectual optimism” which is tends to be more bearish from a contrarian perspective.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having held Friday’s test of its 16.45 bounce limit, drifting lower Monday helps to confirm resistance held. But closing lower on Tuesday is still needed to signal the decline has resumed.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing again off of the 143-18 buy signal attacked last week’s highs up to 144-18. Downtrending resistance coinciding at 144-28 is even likelier to be tested before reversing down, so long as 143-04 now holds as support.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap up from the 65.65 buy signal to probe the 67.40 buy signal up to 66.85 wasn’t extended higher overnight. But Monday’s open did gap up and probe fresh highs at 69.45 before reversing back into negative territory at 68.00. A second consecutive higher close would have confirmed Friday’s breakout close. Momentum hasn’t reversed down, but any higher high must print immediately.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing Sunday lower night gapped down Monday to test 2.90, then bounced to test what is now resistance at 2.95. There’s no bearish reason to further delay resolving down, especially since there’s no “unfinished business above.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday above last Friday’s highs got up to 1.1745 before dipping to fill the gap back down to Thursday’s close under 1.1700. Closing in negative territory would have already signaled momentum reversing down. The dip was recovered intraday, but any close uunder 1.1695 would still signal at least a retest of Wednesday’s 1.5830 pre-open lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ending the week on very narrow ranging did not reject Thursday’s resumption of the decline, which is likely to at least probe fresh lows before a recovery attempt can be credible.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Opening firm and trending up shallowly Friday filled the gap back up to Monday’s 16.45 close, leaving no reason to delay resuming the decline Monday.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still fluctuating choppily around the 143-16 buy signal does not make it any more or less likely to trigger. But it does raise suspicions for still not having triggered, so the delay is not bullish.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
OPEC headlines enabled gapping up Friday from the 65.65 buy signal up to the next buy signal at 67.40, and then extending higher to test 68.80. The likely minimum objective is 70.25.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap down back to 2.95 stopped short of triggering a sell signal. Friday’s follow-through to 2.92 reacted up to 2.95 to still prevent signaling that momentum is yet reversing down durably.