Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Lower lows overnight down to 1.1595 nearly touched last week’s 1.1580 overnight low of the entire decline. Stopping optimistically short before bouncing intraday doesn’t make fresh lows any less likely on this leg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight weren’t broken until the afternoon extended to attack 1248.00. This fulfills the minimum third lower close required by the confirmed breakout, but does not at all suggest the decline is ending.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday creates a new piece of unfinished business below at the open, which must be retested eventually after retesting higher prior lows. Coverage rolls forward immediately to Sep, which trades at a 9-cent premium to Jul.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s test of downtrending resistance at 144-26 and extended higher intraday. Thursday did not extend higher, but neither was 144-26 reversed, which would signal the momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s fresh highs tested 74.00. The 75.30 target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 72.95 as support. Back under 71.05 would signal that momentum is reversing down.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from only so much of a position of strength that a knee-jerk reaction down would likely recover. Reacting up first would still be vulnerable to reacting down. In fact, gapping up to 3.00 and probing higher was reversed down sharply to 2.93. Closing lower Friday would signal the trend reversing down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still testing the 1.1725 sell signal at Tuesday’s close, but as resistance, resolved down overnight to gap down Wednesday under the 1.1700 confirmation. Extending down sharply intraday tested 1.1635 which had been the original decline’s target, likely now to probe fresh lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh lows overnight was extended Wednesday morning, as the session tested 1253.50. Thu-Mon had formed a multi-session range, so Wednesday’s fresh low close has confirmed Tuesday’s breakout and now requires at least an eventual third lower close.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s 16.18 gap down under all prior lows had required a retest from above, which was fulfilled at Wednesday’s open. Its reaction up filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close before resolving down to fresh lows. While this does not form a breakout, at least fresh intraday lows are likely, if not also extnding the trend.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap up immediately tested downtrending resistance coinciding at 144-26. Extending higher intraday to attack 145-08 did not reverse down intraday, but closing back under 144-26 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fulfilling the 70.25 target Tuesday wasn’t rejected or reversed, and the rally extended higher overnight to gap up Wednesday at 71.18. Trending up intraday probed a nickel above 73.00 and 35 cents above 5-week old highs. Holding 71.25 as support keeps alive the next higher target at 75.30.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to 2.96 and extending up to 3.00 greets Thursday’s EIA more from a position of strength than of weakness. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to 2.92 would be likely to recover, but there’s no assurance of an initially favorable reaction being maintained.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight weakness tested the new  1.1725 pullback limit, and held it intraday to maintain potential for extending the bounce up to 1.1850. Otherwise, breaking the pullback limit and extending under 1.1700 would target fresh lows at 1.1575.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A double-digit overnight slide to 1256.50 gapped down to fresh lows again Tuesday. Like Thursday’s gap down, the balance of the morning trended back up to 1264.00. But Tuesday had already begun rolling back over. Regardless, the low will need to be retested.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down to fresh lows after testing 16.15 quickly rallied Tuesday to fill the gap back up to Monday’s close above 16.30. The balance of the session hovered narrowly under unchanged, with the open’s gap now requiring a retest.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s flat-to-lower ranging held within Monday’s range and just under Monday’s 144-16 high, still having potential to test 144-26 and to reverse down from there.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Friday’s breakout above 65.65 on Monday didn’t prevent extending higher Tuesday to fulfill the 70.25 target up to 70.65. Pullbacks must now hold 69.35 as support to avoid potentially triggering the 68.80 sell signal.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug which trades at a 1-cent premium over Jul]… Flat, narrow ranging between 2.90-2.92 didn’t extend Monday’s drop, which remains vulnerable to breaking lower anyway so long as 2.96 isn’t recovered first.