Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s bounce to 1.1725-1.1745 resistance was retraced Sunday night to gap down Monday to test 1.1670. Extending down even a little would likely extend down to fresh lows under 1.1585-1.1595.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s 1257.00 high was considered a likely candidate for ending the corrective bounce before resuming the decline. Reacting down into the weekend and out of it has probed fresh lows, with lower potential outstanding. Attacking 1240.50 nearly fulfilled 1237.50, which would remain likely so long as 1244.50 now holds bounces.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down Sunday night extended to gap down Monday to last week’s 15.95 low and extend to 15.80. The decline’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 15.87.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Volatility is still missing since probing the 144-26 falling trendline that was at first an attraction, and which must now hold as support to avoid another corrective drop.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s low retested Thursday night’s low, both lows holding the 72.90 pullback limit that keeps alive the next higher objective at 75.30. So does Monday’s recovery.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There was no bullish reason to close lower Friday, since Thursday’s drop already had filled and held the prior gap. So, Sunday night’s weakness extended down sharply to gap down under multi-week lows down to 2.82. Bounces should hold 2.87 to maintain the breakout’s momentum.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 3, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets close early Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s Independence Day holiday. The post-open econ report could still influence price action, being industrial data that follows Monday’s three reports which did trigger reactions.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Early close
1:15 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Sunday Review — holiday, payrolls, Bitcoin.
There’s no Saturday Review this weekend, but there’s still a few major points to consider for the upcoming week…
Holiday week — Independence Day is on Wednesday, and Tuesday is an early close. That’s odd, 3-day weekends are much more common among U.S. exchanges. Be careful not to force a trade, because it’s difficult to generate sponsorship for trending. So, consider giving reversals more credibility than breakout attempts.
Employment Situation week — Injecting this high-profile report into holiday shortened/interrupted week can have unusual reactions. The same may be said for Thursday’s FOMC Minutes, which isn’t usually released this late in the week.
Bitcoin, et al — The pattern’s latest downleg was defined before it began as an ongoing series of aggressive downlegs interspersed with tempered uplegs. And we would know that was ending if their roles were reversed, which was almost the case last Sunday (first arrow on nearby chart). The decline hasn’t worsened since then, and now another big upleg appeared late Saturday. I’m giving Bitcoin — and Ethereum — a benefit of the doubt that the reversal is developing. This may be premature, and the pattern still needs confirmation of more strong uplegs. The alternative is another steep downbar.
CHARTROOM WILL RE-OPEN AT 6:00 PM ET TONIGHT.
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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday to 1.1700 extended to test 1.1745. Extending any higher would target 1.1845-1.1860. Closing back under 1.1700 would target fresh lows under 1.1595.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having fulfilled its minimum objective of a third lower close on Thursday, Friday had become more vulnerable to bouncing. It firmed, still having potential for fresh lows down to 1245.50 or 1237.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight pullback to 16.00 made a higher low before extending above Thursday’s highs to test 16.20. The price and pattern are appropriate for a corrective bounce to be ending. Otherwise, extending any higher aggressively would suggest that a bigger bounce is underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat, narrow ranging overnight became flat-to-higher ranging Friday. Breaking back under 144-26 would still launch a much deeper reaction down, and probably not only a temporary correction.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A shallow pullback overnight held the newly adjusted shallow pullback limit at 72.90 before firming to a fresh high intraday attacking 74.45, and still targeting 75.30.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday extended Thursday’s reaction down further under 2.96 to signal momentum reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 2, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar almost hits a trifecta, with 3 manufacturing and construction reports due post-open. The second two are simultaneously released, and they would likely duplicate any obvious reaction to the first.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET