Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/9/18) …Ka, boom.
An interesting week lies ahead, with all of the challenge and excitement of strolling through a virtual minefield. Distractions include meeting Kim Jong Un in Singapore and the World Cup “kick-off.” Inputs include heightened Brexit focus, and monetary policy statements from the FOMC (with Fed Chair Q&A), ECB and BOJ. And we’ll have a WedEX signal, this being expiration week — quadruple witch, no less.
The market is stepping steadfastly higher into the minefield. Most recently, recovering Thursday’s intraday and overnight selling at Friday’s open, and into the weekend. Cracks started showing among FANGs that triggered the pullback, so does the market’s brief drop reflect excessive pessimism, or does the quick recovery reflect excessive optimism? We could know as early as Monday, but probably no later than Tuesday.
We discuss possible paths and relevant levels in this weekend’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CRM, CMG, HD, WDC, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA
transcript
(06/09/2018 08:15)
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
(06/09/2018 09:32)
Mark: gm
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
jp: gm
(06/09/2018 09:36)
David B: will we know early in the week which event the market is going to focus on?
(06/09/2018 09:50)
Bill G: Wouldn’t a move just short of 2800 look like pessimism?
(06/09/2018 09:55)
Bill G: Is a sld possible?
David B: option expiration
Bill G: BOJ
David B: usually reactions are weak hands?
(06/09/2018 09:59)
Mark: Neg correlation b/w indexes signaled Thu was not confirmed Fri. Would u expect it to be reinstated in liu of the multiple events next week?
(06/09/2018 10:02)
Bill G: I think Fri
(06/09/2018 10:13)
Bill G: Fri, FB up .22 but the other FANG stocks were dn again
(06/09/2018 10:20)
David B: CRM,CMG
(06/09/2018 10:23)
David B: HD,WDC
(06/09/2018 10:36)
Bill G: My data shows 186.43 as low
(06/09/2018 10:45)
Mark: thx
Bill G: thanks
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday to Wednesday’s 1.7700 close immediately dipped to touch the 1.1735 sell signal. It’s likely to break so long as 1.1790 now holds resistance.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Yet another higher probe above the prior Thursday’s 1305.00 gap — this time, to the 1307.20 buy signal — was retraced ahead of Friday’s open, keeping the door open to resolving down and resuming the decline.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Because of Thursday’s flat confirmation session,a pullback targeting 16.55 before producing an eventual third higher close was likely. An overnight dip to 16.65 was retraced back into Thursday’s range to attack the 16.88 buy signal, before resolving down again into the weekend.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 142-22 Thursday had at least created a position of strength to help absorb another dip to 142-00. It wasn’t utilized by Friday’s inside day, which could extend higher first, with room up to 145-00 before signaling a new rally leg underway.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming overnight and into Friday’s open attacked the 66.25 buy signal to within 1 penny before dipping to 65.15. There’s still little or no bullish reason to further delay launching a new rally leg.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap back down to Wednesday’s close didn’t negate Thursday’s gap up, but likely only corrected it. And there’s still room for noise down to 2.85 before suggesting something bigger underway to the downside, instead of producing the third higher close that is still required from the two-week old confirmed breakout.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 11, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week starts with a lot of Treasury auctions, and a lot of paper, but no economic report that might otherwise interfere with their sales. The market might breathe a sigh of relief — as in relief rally — after the afternoon results are announced.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s Island pattern at 1.1800 didn’t reverse down Thursday under its 1.1745 trigger, but gapped up to its 1.1835 room for noise. .
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s open probed Tuesday and Wednesday’s 1305.00-1306.00 highs. The gap back to last Thursday’s 1305.00 close had been filled already, without extending higher. Thursday’s test also didn’t extend higher, and reacted back down to test 1300.00 as support. Closing beyond either end of Thursday’s range would likely trend in that direction.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up through prior highs Thursday dipped post-open but held the 16.80 buy signal as support. The second consecutive higher close confirms Wednesday’s breakout and requires at least an eventual third higher close before another downleg would be reliable.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The gap back down to 142-00 was filled to within 1 tick overnight, which isn’t optimal for actually testing it. So, closing back above 142-22 wouldn’t reverse momentum up, but allows one more intraday dip that’s likely to recover. Dipping without first closing back above 142-22 would be likelier to extend down.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
With all current reports freshly past, and their negative reactions holding prior lows, there’s no bullish reason to much delay triggering a recovery underway back above 66.25. Firming Thursday started attacking the trigger to within 20 cents, which should be extended into the weekend if valid.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. A negative knee-jerk reaction down would have been compelling to buy, but the session already gapped up and and only drifted down on the news. At least an eventual third higher close at 3.00 or higher remains outstanding.