Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged narrowly sideways above the 1.1755 bounce limit, which had reacted down on Monday. The reaction bottomed Tuesday optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s close. So, already resolving up is premature and impatient, and not reliable for extending higher. back under 1.1745 would signal momentum reversing down again.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s bounce had already filled the gap back up to last Thursday’s 1305.00 close, and reacted down intraday. Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s high starts chipping away at its resistance. The bearish pattern needs no further backing-and-filling or other delays in resuming its decline, which start to become bullish.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength retested the 16.55 bounce limit that was tested already Tuesday, and held. Wednesday’s open gapped back up to it, and surged to fresh highs attacking 16.80. Its immediate rejection is not possible, so only closing back under 16.55 Thursday would even begin to signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping back up to the 143-22 sell signal Tuesday had tried to undermine Monday’s break under it. Narrow fluctuation around 143-22 kept the door open to extending Monday’s break. Overnight weakness did that, testing 142-16 support that must now break lower to confirm the trend has reversed down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close API report was greeted from a position of weakness, which didn’t prevent reacting down on the news. Wednesday morning’s EIA report faced the same difficulty and had the same reaction. Avoiding a new low close keeps open the potential for a recovery that would be signaled by closing above 66.25.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength for having “unfinished business above” and holding a pullback test of support at “lower prior highs.” The delay in recovering the dip to lower prior highs is not bullish. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down would be likely to recover.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s reversal down from its 1.1755 bounce limit gapped down Tuesday to 1.1675. That filled the gap back to Friday’s close, and its natural support helped to launch a bounce back up to 1.1740. Another break under Monday’s 1.1688 low would target the gap back down to last Tuesday’s 1.1550 low close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another attack on recent lows down to 1293.50 was recovered through the morning to attack 1305.00, filling the gap back up to last Thursday’s close. The attraction above didn’t require being neutralized, but now there is no excuse to further delay breaking under 1295.00 and resuming the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness down to 16.37 was recovered back into positive territory to test 16.55 resistance. Closing any higher would have been bullish, but delaying the decline’s resumption is not bearish.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow break under the much-tested 143-20 sell signal was retraced immediately by gapping back up to it Tuesday. The rejection wasn’t exploited by firming any further, as the session essentially fluctuated narrowly around 143-20.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight at 64.22 didn’t extend down intraday. While a buy signal can be calculated at 66.25, it’s too late to greet either Tuesday’s post-close API or Wednesday’s EIA reports from a position of strength. So, a negative knee-jerk reaction down can’t be discounted, or its potential to extend down further.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Last Thursday’s gap up to prior highs under 3.00 had not extended or retraced, not until Tuesday’s opening dip filled the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 2.88 close. It can be tested down to 2.85 before signaling something more substantial underway. Meanwhile, at least one more new trend high close remains outstanding.