Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday and Friday’s failed pre-open rallies were never actually rejected, only retraced, which kept alive the 1.1755 bounce potential. Its eventual test before Monday’s open reacted down sharply to 1.1688, stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Friday’s 1.1672 close. Not actually filling the gap before trying to rally would be premature, and likely to retest recent lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s 1294.00 low was recovered to attack Friday’s 1303.00 high to within $1. Much of it was retraced to turn slightly negative into the afternoon, still needing a fresh low close to confirm momentum has reversed back down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging into Monday’s open tested 16.55 before reversing back down and piercing negative territory under 16.45, still not yet confirming the near-term resolution will resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep, which trades at a 28-tick discount from Jun]… Gapping back down to 142-24 Monday — which had held Tuesday and Wednesday’s pullbacks — eked lower intraday to attack 147-00. A gap there on the way up now offers obligatory support on the way down, but the decline has little if any time to delay resolving down if that’s it’s intent.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The reversal down from having triggered the 67.90 buy signal extended to fresh relative lows Monday testing 64.60. That’s “lower prior highs” from earlier this year, a likely at least to produce an obligatory bounce.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s narrow flat-to-lower range was more confirming to Friday’s own narrow range, than to Thursday’s breakout that still lacks a higher confirming close. A second consecutive higher close would be preferable.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight strength ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report only attacked Thursday’s pre-open highs before greeting the news back at unchanged around 1.1700. Probing Thursday’s lows down to 1.1630 was recovered back to almost unchanged. Not already reversing down into the weekend suggests the corrective bounce can still test 1.1745-1.1755.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness spiked down in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, and gapped down to Tuesday’s 1297.00 low. Probing it momentarily down to 1293.00 was recovered to attack Thursday’s 1305.00 close. Closing under the Tuesday-Friday lows would resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report in decline blipped-down in reaction but stopped optimistically short of touching Tuesday’s 16.31 low. Bouncing back into positive territory tested 16.45-16.55 as resistance.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Growing potential for a retest of Tuesday’s 146-23 high was avoided by the reaction down to Friday’s Employment Situation report testing the 144-20 sell signal. Fluctuating around the signal through the morning  .

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Returning intraday to the 66.63 low of Thursday’s gap down prevented sellers from gaining traction. But it didn’t prevent probing lower overnight, and Friday back down to Tuesday’s 65.75 low. Another close above 67.90 is needed to resume the recovery.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s break above the multi-session range was a breakout, but it wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday. At least an eventual higher close at 3.00 or more remains outstanding from the prior week’s confirmed breakout.