Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Higher highs overnight attacked the 1.1755 maximum corrective bounce limit up to 1.1738. Thursday’s open gapped up only slightly above Wednesday’s high to 1.1700, and the session developed largely around Wednesday’s high. A retest of Wednesday night’s high is possible before retesting this week’s lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to 1311.50 probed the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1308.50 close, which had contained the prior two sessions’s highs. It was retraced before the open to avoid early strength that otherwise would have suggested a bigger bounce underway before resuming the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight test of the original 16.60 sell signal was somewhat duplicated post-open Thursday, but held, keeping alive the likelihood for resuming the decline into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still fluctuating within Tuesday’s wide range, and overlapping flat-to-higher around Wednesday’s inside day, Thursday firmed to within a quarter-point of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 146-08 close. There’s still room down to 144-20 before signaling a bigger pullback underway, which Thursday’s bounce has helped to refuel for a deeper objective.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down overnight to Wednesday’s post-close API data was retraced Thursday morning in reaction to the holiday-delayed EAI report. Largely retraced, a dime short of Wednesday’s 68.20 close. And only briefly retraced, reacting back down to probe 50-cents under the 67.30 open, which held its retest. But having failed to confirm Wednesday’s recovery attempt, the rally must reassert itself into the weekend.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up above the two prior days’ multi-session range extended to attack prior highs, and the outstanding 3.00 objective. That also filled the gap back up to Friday’s 2.97 close, which reacted down intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday has left outstanding Tuesday’s gap open under all prior lows, and the gap back to Wednesday’s close, both of which should be filled before a durable rally can form. Meanwhile, being deeply oversold is vulnerable to snapping back up, substantially albeit temporary, especially if the downside catalysts are rectified while the upside momentum of this natural bounce can be leveraged by the news. Already, the gap back to Friday’s 1.1675 close has been filled at Wednesday’s high, with room up to 1.1755.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug, which trades at a $5.20 premium to Jun…] Wednesday’s inside day held the same 1308.50 resistance that Wednesday’s highs had tested, which filled the gap back up to Friday’s close. That had neutralized upside momentum from recovering Tuesday morning’s dip, which had bounced prematurely short of filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s close. Initial strength Thursday would be credible for having absorbed sellers Wednesday, but not necessarily reliable for extending higher without maintaining fresh highs through the close.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up to 16.45 immediately recovered Tuesday’s high. Extending higher filled the gap back to Friday’s 16.55 close. The original 16.60 sell signal remained intact, but the decline should resume without much further delay to maintain that the upside action is counter-trend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled the retest of 146-00 up to 146-23, already reversing back down to the 144-20 pullback limit overnight suggested that a deeper pullback down to “lower prior highs” at 143-08 was underway. But intraday action was only a narrowly ranging inside day. The interim low’s break is still a valid sell signal, but now its pullback would more likely target 143-20. Meanwhile, until triggering the reversal another test of the 146-00 area remains possible.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s rally eventually probed the 67.90 buy signal. Extending higher Thursday to close above 69.00 would confirm the pullback had ended, or at least this stage, opening the door to retesting the highs and higher. That’s assuming Thursday’s holiday-delayed EIA report doesn’t react down to fresh lows, and recovers any initially negative knee-jerk reaction.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap down to “lower prior highs” wasn’t rejected Wednesday, as the session’s inside day only ranged narrowly. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, but an initially negative knee-jerk reaction that recovers into positive territory should also reverse up and begin the recovery.