Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s session wasn’t conducive to immediately forming a market bottom, let alone to reversing up. Extending down Monday gapped open to fresh lows Tuesday that also entrench the decline and delay the next bottoming opportunity.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s rally to 1306.00 was reversed down Tuesday to 1291.50, nearly filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s close. It was recovered already intraday to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 1303.50 close. Sellers were prevented from gaining traction, while near-by attractions above and below were neutralized. There’s no requirement to break either way, but closing under 1298.50 would resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday retested last Wednesday’s 16.35 low, which was still being tested at the close. A fresh low close would likely resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The rally extended sharply higher to test 146-00 in an overnight flight-to-safety. Its pullback potential to 144-20 was already being tested at Tuesday’s open. A retest of overnight highs is possible or even likely so long as the pullback limit continues to hold. In fact, it’s just several ticks away as of Tuesday afternoon.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having broken the 71.30 optimal pullback limit last week and then extended lower, extending even lower after the weekend to 65.80 was neither required nor surprising. Any outstanding target above isn’t going to be recovered immediately, but the more timely question is whether the pullback can now end. The nearest buy signal is 67.90, and should be lowered Wednesday.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which trades at a 3-cent premium to Jun]… Friday’s fresh high intraday had failed to make a new closing high, which last week’s confirmed breakout still requires. That didn’t prevent Tuesday’s gap down back to “lower prior highs” at 2.88, which should hold as support to launch a test of 3.00.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce had touched “higher prior lows” so that Wednesday’s 1.1731 opening gap could be retested and its attraction below neutralized. Its attraction below was more powerful than that, and Friday opened at fresh lows down to 1.1692, testing 1.1663. The possible bottoming pattern never completed, and the nearest buy signal is now back above 1.1750.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to the 1298.50 buy signal Thursday extended higher to qualify as a breakout, despite leaving plenty of unfinished business below at the week-long channel. It still has potential to extend higher and test 1316.00-1317.50, despite Friday not confirming Thursday’s breakout. Otherwise, closing back under 1298.50 would signal the breakout was false and already reversing down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up back above Tuesday’s 16.55 low Thursday and extending to test Tuesday’s 16.70 high would have signaled the trend detouring up, but Friday needed to close higher for confirmation. Instead, a blip-up was reversed back down to test 16.55 through the afternoon. Almost any initial weakness coming out of the weekend would at least be vulnerable to resuming the decline, if not likely.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down intraday from Thursday’s test of the original 143-07 sell signal had held above its 142-20 pullback limit, which was pierced by 1 tick overnight before resuming the rally. Friday’s gap up to 143-12 extended intraday to attack 143-30. Now 142-20 is a sell signal if broken through the close.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from Tuesday’s 72.90 high was optimal when Wednesday’s low held 71.00 above Friday’s pullback low. Thursday’s gap down under both could have been recovered if done immediately and maintained, but its immediate recovery attempt was retraced into the close. Thursday’s session has proved to be a paradigm shift, made clearer by Friday’s gap down to 68.75 and extension to 67.50. There’s still room for noise at 67.35, but back above 68.90 would start to trigger an upleg targeting 70.40 if not also the rally’s 74.20 target.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh high was retraced to spend the afternoon fluctuating around Thursday’s close, leaving outstanding the confirmed breakout’s eventual third higher close minimum requirement.