Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing “higher priopr lows” at 1.1755 overnight limited Thursday’s gap up. Now filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1.1730 open can complete a bottom.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back up Thursday to retest Wednesday’s 1298.00 pre-open high only extended higher to 1306.50. The pattern leaves “unfinished business below,” but a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a test of 1316.00-1317.00 is in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up to Tuesday’s 16.57 close ignored Wednesday’s gap down and probe lower. It even extended to test Tuesday’s 16.70 high. Closing any higher would start to signal another detour from probing new lows, let alone filling the 3-week old gap outstanding below.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing AT the 142-02 buy signal Wednesday was extended overnight to gap up Thursday, and that was extended intraday back up to the original 143-07 sell signal. A more bullish recovery would have first dipped to test “lower prior highs” at 141-04/141-10 before trying to extend higher, which is instead vulnerable to reacting down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s low was optimal for ending the corrective dip and resuming the rally targeting 74.20. But Thursday night’s slide gapped down to test 70.65 support, which is a 61.8% retracement of the prior extended consolidation that had launched the latest upleg. And that was launched after an initial breakout had been corrected already. So, Thursday’s extended dip isn’t bullish, and must be rejected almost immediately, and aggressively, to avoid a deeper dip.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was modest, barely improving before holding the resistance of Wednesday’s 2.94 high. “Ineffectual pessimism” should resolve up aggressively Friday, or else another corrective dip would become more likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
When only the slightest improvement is needed to reverse the trend up, its likely alternative is to extend the trend aggressively. Which Wednesday’s gap down well under all prior lows did. Bounces should be limited to 1.1765 unless a bottom begins forming.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night’s bounce to 1298.00 resistance originated from an unstable base that had failed to decisively recover above 1290.00. Wednesday’s open gapped up only slightly, back down within Tuesday’s range, and fresh session lows tested 1287.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down to 16.55 collapsed through the open own to 16.33, still not as low as Monday’s overnight dip, but maintained to maintain the decline’s trend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Three days of testing the 141-04 bounce limit didn’t bother any corrective dip or retest of last week’s low, neither of which was needed prior to recovering. Wednesday’s open gapped up to the 142-02 buy signal and fluctuated around it. The gap back down to 141-08 will be likely to fill if Thursday doesn’t extend the rally early.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already retracing Monday’s 72.90 fresh high down to 72.00 on Tuesday, Wednesday’s spike down to test 71.70 in reaction to EIA was not helpful. It wasn’t as bearish as could have been, and the 74.20 target remains in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up and extension to fresh highs was all but repeated Wednesday, which extended aggressively higher. This confirms Tuesday’s breakout, and greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight strength tapered off ahead of Tuesday’s open. Intraday narrow action hovered narrowly above Monday’s lows, not rejecting the overnight strength, and contributing to a potential bottom. Closing above 1.1845 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s recovery had stopped short of recovering the 1292.00 buy signal, which was probed overnight. Tuesday’s gap up was retraced to test 1292.00 as support. The lack of durable follow-though suggests the decline’s momentum remains intact. But closing above Tuesday’s 1296.00 high could extend the bounce.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s opening dip and Sunday night’s deeper dip both were recovered intraday, which Monday night’s rally extended to test 16.63-16.65 resistance. Closing any higher would be problematic for the bounce to remain only a correction, so Tuesday’s reaction down helps to maintain the likelihood for resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still overlapping the 141-04 bounce limit Monday night persisted through Tuesday. A retest of last week’s 140-14 is likely until 142-02 is recovered.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which trades at a 5-10 cent premium to Jun]… Monday’s session long rally to fresh highs bobbled only slightly overnight ahead of Tuesday’s open, which extended initially to probe fresh recovery highs above 72.80, before collapsing back under 72.00. The pattern is still targeting 74.15–74.20.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s dip had only attacked the 2.78 sell signal. Tuesday’s gap up to the 2.85 prior high extended higher to probe fresh highs up to 2.90. Pullbacks must now hold 2.88 to maintain the next higher objective at 2.95.