Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 23, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is steadily busy, but not a lot. The first post-open report has a track record for influencing price action. Not the next report, although it will be relevant this week when multiple Housing sector data are released. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes has gotten less influential in its reactions, but usually inhibits volatility ahead of its release The pre-close Fed speaker had negligible impact when speaking Tuesday morning.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
2:15 PM ET
William Dudley Speaks
4:15 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to Friday’s low and probing fresh lows under it doesn’t qualify at all for exploiting Friday’s bottoming attempt. Neither did Monday’s gap down within the prior range. But recovering from fresh trend lows to close back within the range testing unchanged at 1.1800 does keep the door open to reversing the trend up.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Sunday night probed Thursday’s pre-open lows that Friday morning’s low had stopped optimistically short of touching. Fresh lows Sunday night were the consequence to that optimism. Bouncing back Monday to 1292.00 resistance keeps the door open to reversing the trend back up.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s dip to 16.25 probed under Friday’s low, which had begun to resume the decline. Monday retraced it, as with Friday’s dip. But the decline still hasn’t resumed, and Monday afternoon’s reaction up was back to testing the 16.50 bounce limit.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still fluctuating around the 141-04 bounce limit Monday has avoided forming a pattern any likelier to reverse up. Back above 141-24/142-02 would be credible for extending higher, but otherwise the trend remains down with new lows likely.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s spike up to 71.90 helped to reveal the upside potential now available since last week’s pullback from new highs. The surge was corrected into Monday’s open, and intraday action extended higher to 72.33. The 74.10 target is intact.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday morning’s dip back down to 2.82 continued holding the retest of 2.85 prior highs. But there’s still room down to 2.78 before even beginning to signal momentum reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 22, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ calendar isn’t empty, but it’s otherwise irrelevant, as neither of its items has a reliable track record for influencing price action. The calendar heats up going forward into the three-day holiday weekend.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Tonight’s Globex Link
Our chaRTroom link has changed, its new link is below. Meanwhile, the Dow has gapped up 235 points to retest last week’s highs. S&Ps quickly got 21 points above Friday’s close to attack last week’s highs. Bearish WedEX doesn’t apply overnight, and this seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to a political headline, i.e. all but required to retrace. A fun session shaping up… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to Thursday’s low at 1.1800 probed fresh lows intraday before recovering to close back above Thursday’s low. Closing back above Friday’s 1.1835-1.1840 high would fulfill a bottoming pattern, albeit one-day delayed from more optimal timing.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s fresh low stopped short of touching the overnight low before reversing back to the upper-end of Thursday’s range. Closing above the range’s 1292.00 upper-end could launch at least a detour to the decline, if not also start forming a bottom. The decline otherwise remains intact.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
There was no more excuse to delay resuming the decline after Thursday’s gap up. Friday’s opening drop filled the gap back to Wednesday’s close. The gap-fill reacted up, But its reaction up should be only temporary, and brief, to maintain the decline’s resumption.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling the requirement for an eventual third lower close Thursday enabled Friday’s reaction up. The 141-04 bounce limit was tested intraday. Closing above it would suggest the downside momentum had lapsed.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s reaction down from the open’s new high back into the week-long narrow range was not rejected Friday. But neither did it extend down meaningfully, leaving untouched the 70.85 pullback limit, while the 74.10 objective remains in-play.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Prior highs were probed above 2.85 into the weekend, but still being overlapped at the close. Actually closing above prior highs is a difficult trend behavior to reverse for Natural Gas, and would make at least a probe of fresh highs Monday is likely. Regardless, any reversal down now requires closing back under 2.85 and then lower for a second consecutive session.