Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout still requires an eventual third lower close before bottoming would be credible for reversing up. Thursday’s narrowly ranging “inside day” isn’t itself predictive, but closing above its 1.1862 upper-end after first probing a fresh low under 1.1790 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Thursday’s open after piercing fresh lows overnight didn’t find sponsorship intraday, which developed entirely within Wednesday’s range. The “inside day” isn’t itself predictive. But closing above its 1291.50 upper-end — especially if after retesting Wednesday night’s low — would signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming after Wednesday’s close had tested the 16.45 bounce limit, which extended higher intraday to test 16.50. Not yet resuming the decline at this stage suggests that a bigger or longer-lasting detour is underway. Having just done that, I’m suspicious of there being sponsorship to do it again now. Back under 16.40 would signal the decline had resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having confirmed the breakout requiring at least an eventual third lower close, and already having avoided fulfilling it Wednesday, firming overnight was likely to fail. In fact, Thursday’s open gapped down and trended lower to fresh lows at 140-12 to fulfill the minimum objective. The trend remains down so long as 141-04 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Vulnerability to a deep detour below was negated by Thursday’s gap up above the recent extended range. Reversing down now would no longer be only a temporary detour. Meanwhile, gapping up above all prior highs now creates another attraction above at 72.06 to help recover from a dip. Speaking of which, Thursday’s gap up retraced back into the prior range to 71.10, and has room to test 70.85 before suggesting momentum is reversing down anyway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip had stopped short of 2.78 to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. It was touched by the news’ initially negative knee-jerk reaction, which snapped back up sharply into positive territory. The gap back to Tuesday’s 2.86 open was filled, and held, to avoid signaling a new upleg is necessarily underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Immediately extending Tuesday’s drop (by closing lower, not by gapping down) has confirmed the breakout from a multi-session range. An eventual third lower close is required before a bottoming effort can be credible.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s lower lows were retraced to unchanged, but the bounce limit was lowered to 1295.00. Firming slightly higher after the close at this stage should either give the bounce limit a test on Thursday, or else snap back down to resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Wednesday morning extended through the close to attack the 16.45 bounce limit. Stopping optimistically short of even filling the 2-week old gap, and now bouncing higher instead of neutralizing the downside attraction, is requiring a substantial rally Thursday, or else a substantial resumption of the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap up was shallow, and retraced back into negative territory, attacking Tuesday’s lows down to 140-28. The breakout was already confirmed, so the pattern still requires an eventual third lower close before bottoming can be credible.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another day of extremely narrow ranging — not yet extending the entrenched rally — continues to be vulnerable to a deeper corrective detour down before resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Pulling back further Wednesday from Tuesday’s failed gap up didn’t get to 2.80, whose test could have held to form a position of strength ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. But closing back under 2.76 was needed to form a position of weakness, which means that a favorable reaction Thursday can’t be dismissed.