Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/6/19) …The upside of topping.
What was that strong-handed distribution about three weeks ago? Whatever it saw on the horizon has yet to arrive, but the quarterly earnings onslaught begins this week. Will a China trade deal trigger a final high, first? During? Rallying day-to-day to higher highs is camouflaging the net-flat intraday action, which itself reflects the rally’s anxiousness. None of which prevents higher highs.
This week’s Saturday Review describes the original distribution, and recent distributive behavior. Further rally potential and the face of its failure are also described.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CVGW, BBBY, AMD, BIIB, JPM, WFC, XLNX, WDC, CY
transcript
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
An inverted Head & Shoulders had formed fully by Thursday’s close, but Friday did not resolve the pattern — which can either trigger above 1.1322 or break lower to 1.1228 before launching a rally.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already probing back above Thursday’s close in the afternoon, Friday’s open was still probing its resistance but not extending.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 15.15 buy signal was being tested after Thursday’s close but still holding as resistance overnight, which persisted intraday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted from a position of weakness for still testing the 147-17 pullback limit. The initially negative knee-jerk reaction only blipped-down to test the 147-08 sell signal down to 147-01 before snapping back up above Thursday’s high. The original 148-02 buy bounce limit is being tested into the weekend.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing an additional dime under the 62.00 pullback limit overnight was recovered Friday to probe prior highs above 63.00. The sell signal can be raised Monday.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already printing a fresh low overnight, Thursday’s dip to fresh lows wasn’t rejected to the point of forming a buy signal. .
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 8, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The new week’s calendar is significantly busier than may be suggested by Monday’s single post-open item — which is much more high-profile than it is reliably influential to price action.
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s reaction down from Wednesday’s test of the 1.1322 prior high continued forming a inverted Head & Shoulders. Maintaining its symmetry would require breaking higher into the weekend. Otherwise, fresh lows down to 1.1225 would be likely, and would be a likely spot to launch a recovery leg.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s narrow sideways ranging gapped down Thursday to 1291.30 and probed under it to test 1285.00. Recovering back up to 1291.30, having gapped down to it and not under it, allows a rally to begin without delay if triggered by Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down through the 14.90-14.95 prior lows extended to 14.85 while retesting the open’s gap, and before reversing up sharply back above the prior lows. Closing negative kept alive enough pessimism that any knee-jerk favorable reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report would be credible for triggering the 15.15 buy signal and extending higher into the weekend.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Although Wednesday’s test of the 147-17/147-25 pullback limit didn’t extend down Thursday, neither was it rejected, not even back above its 148-02 bounce limit. So, Friday’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness. A favorable knee-jerk reaction has room up to 148-16 before suggesting that a recovery has begun anyway.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s test of the 62.00 pullback limit was probed by another dime ahead of Thursday’s open, which bounced back up toward recent highs. Now closing under the pullback limit’s 61.90 retest would trigger at least a preliminary sell signal.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Neutralizing the attraction back down to Friday’s 2.66 close on Wednesday had avoided greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness, but a position of strength before or after the report had required closing above 2.72. The negative knee-jerk reaction probed fresh lows down to 2.63, which must be recovered into the weekend to even begin reversing momentum up.