Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s 1.1255 fresh low had held its probe under prior lows, which overnight firming exploited in reaction to China trade headlines. Reacting up to the 1.1322 prior highs helps to form a bottoming pattern, and doesn’t yet qualify as a bottom, which requires closing above 1.1344.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still hovering at recent lows keeps intact the 1302.00 buy signal, but also keeps the pattern meanwhile vulnerable to extending down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling Thursday’s gap at Tuesday’s open was recovered overnight to test the 15.15 buy signal, which was tested intraday Wednesday, too, and continues to hold. Having tested it so thoroughly, any reaction down should be shallow and short-lived to avoid resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not holding the 149-11 pullback limit had created potential down to 147-17/147-25, which was met overnight and continued being tested throughout Wednesday. Closing above 148-02 Thursday avoid greeting Friday’s Employment Report from a position of weakness. Closing above 148-16 would greet the report from a position of strength.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs attacking 63.00 overnight already were greeting Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. But that didn’t prevent a negative reaction down, which spent the session testing its 62.00 pullback limit.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The gap back down to Friday’s 2.66 close was filled Wednesday and held, to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. But also not from a position of strength, which had required closing above 2.72.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday didn’t delay probing fresh lows under the 1.1278 target that was met Monday. The fresh low was shallow before bouncing to test Monday’s “higher prior lows” as resistance. The target’s slow approach, its immediate influence, and now its quick attraction from above, all suggest that optimism remains too high from a contrarian perspective for a bottom to be credible.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s retest of 1291.30 was its first intraday test, and needs to hold for a recovery above 1302.00 to signal the trend reversing back up. Closing any lower would instead suggest the pullback is extending.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday probed Thursday’s 14.95 low by a nickel before bouncing back into positive territory. Closing above 15.10 would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, closing under 14.95 would now signal a more substantial pullback underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Breaking under the 149-11 pullback limit Monday allowed room for extending down to 147-17/147-25, which narrow ranging overnight and Tuesday did not try to exploit. Completing the pullback Wednesday would be helpful to greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already trending up into Tuesday’s open extended to fresh highs at 62.50. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 61.70 as support. Closing under 60.50 would reverse the trend down. But Wednesday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, that might not react favorably initially, but should provide an anchor to recover a knee-jerk reaction down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending back down Tuesday attacked Friday’s 2.66 low close, which should at least be filled, if not also probed before establishing a durable bottom. Otherwise, closing back above 2.75 would still get a benefit of the doubt for already reversing momentum back up.